New York Jets vs San Francisco 49ers Picks, Predictions and Odds for MNF (Sep. 9)
- San Francisco is a four-point favorite in the Jets vs 49ers odds in Week 1 action on Monday Night Football
- Aaron Rodgers will make his first start since tearing his Achilles in Week 1 of last season
- Keep reading for the New York Jets vs San Francisco 49ers picks and predictions, plus the odds for the spread, moneyline, and total
Week 1 of the 2024 NFL Season wraps up just the way it started: with an intriguing matchup full of juicy storylines. The New York Jets travel to San Francisco to face the 49ers on Monday Night Football, in what will be Aaron Rodgers first start in nearly a year.
Rodgers hasn’t taken game reps since tearing his Achilles in his Jets debut in Week 1 last season, and online sportsbooks are siding against him in the latest NFL odds.
New York Jets vs San Francisco 49ers Odds
| Teams | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | +4 (-110) | +170 | O 43.5 (-110) |
| San Francisco 49ers | -4 (-110) | -200 | U 43.5 (-110) |
New York is currently a 4-point underdog, in a game with a total of 43.5. Kickoff is slated for 8:20 pm ET at Levi’s Stadium, with ESPN and ABC providing the broadcast coverage.
SPORTSBOOK
Odds as of September 8 at BetMGM. Be sure to check out the best BetMGM promo before placing a bet on Monday Night Football.
Jets vs 49ers Betting Analysis
This line dropped all the way down to Niners -3 at one point before money started pouring in on San Fran. Bettors started panicking when it looked like both Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk might extend their holdouts, but both got deals done this week and both will be on the field.
Williams and Aiyuk are integral pieces to what will likely be one of the best offenses in football. The 49ers were the highest-graded offense a season ago by Pro Football Focus, averaging 29 points per game, and are a top-two contender in the Super Bowl 59 odds.
Another key component for the San Fran attack is Christian McCaffrey. However, his status for Monday is in jeopardy. CMC is dealing with calf and Achilles injuries, but even if he sits Brock Purdy will have no shortage of star power at his disposal.
2023 Offensive DVOA Ranks
| Team | Rank |
|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 1 |
| Miami Dolphins | 2 |
| Buffalo Bills | 3 |
The talent the Niners possess overwhelms most teams, but if there’s one defense equipped to stop them, it may be New York’s.
The Jets defense is stacked on all three levels. Quinnen is a premier defensive tackle, while CJ Mosley and Quincy Williams are elite linebackers. Throw in one of the best corner duos in the NFL in Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed, and New York won’t be overwhelmed by San Fran’s talent.
On the other side of the ball, we shouldn’t expect a vintage Aaron Rodgers performance. The list of QBs who have excelled following an Achilles tear is short, and the 40-year-old has taken only four regular-season snaps since joining New York last offseason.
Aaron Rodgers gets emotional talking to Alex Smith about his ruptured Achilles in 2023:
"I knew when I was on the ground that something was wrong. Sometimes you get drilled, something’s off, you just kind of hope you get up, & it shakes itself out."pic.twitter.com/18DvULq2NW
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) September 8, 2024
To add insult to injury, Rodgers has been notoriously rusty early on in recent years. In Week 1 of the 2019, 2021 and 2022 season, he had a 45% success rate or lower on his pass attempts. He averaged -0.04 expected points added or worse per play in those games, and two of the contests graded out as his worst starts of the season.
New York Jets vs San Francisco 49ers Predictions
As a result, Rodgers and the Jets may lean heavier on Breece Hall and the ground game. Hall was the 11th-highest-graded running back in the NFL last season, despite lining up behind Zach Wilson for most of it.
Also working in Hall’s favor is New York’s revamped O-line. Their big move this offseason was upgrading at left tackle by signing Tyron Smith, but they also beefed up their right tackle and guard positions.
If there’s a weakness to exploit on the Niners, it’s on the ground. They ranked sixth worst by success rate on designed runs in 2023, and are dealing with significant injuries on defense, most notably to linebacker Dre Greenlaw.
Good defense and an efficient run game are keys to keeping games close and low-scoring, which should be the case on Monday Night. If that weren’t enough, there’s significant trends to support those picks as well.
Over the last 20 years, road underdogs in Week 1, who didn’t make the playoffs the season prior, are 90-59-5 against the spread. Since 2018, road dogs between 1 and 5 points in Week 1 are covering at a 64% clip.
Per the NFL over under trends, primetime unders were a combined 70-42-1 in 2022 and 2023, while Jets contests are 22-12 to the under over the past two seasons.
FANATICS SPORTSBOOKBET & GET UP TO $1,000 IN BONUS BETS!
- DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK
BET $5 & GET $250 + 1 MONTH OF NFL+ PREMIUM
- FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK
BET $5 & GET $200 + 3 WEEKS OF NFL SUNDAY TICKET
- BETMGM SPORTSBOOK
GET UP TO $1,500 BACK IN BONUS BETS + 2ND CHANCE TD CASH BACK!
- BET365 SPORTSBOOK
BET $5 & GET $200 IN BONUS BETS!
- ESPN BET SPORTSBOOK
USE CODE "DIME" & GET A $1,000 BET RESET!
- CAESARS SPORTSBOOK
GET UP TO $1,000 BACK - ON CAESARS!
Must be 21+. GAMBLING PROBLEM? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, IL, KS, KY, MD, MI, NC, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, WY); (800) 327-5050 or gamblinghelplinema.org (MA); (877) 8-HOPENY (NY); 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ); (888) 789-7777 (CT); 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA); 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN); mdgamblinghelp.org (MD); morethanagame.nc.gov (NC); 1800gambler.net (WV)
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
