NFL Moneyline Picks for Week 3: Expert & Computer Upset Predictions

• See expert NFL moneyline picks from Matt McEwan and NFK computer picks from his formula
• Underdogs have been red-hot to start the 2024-25 NFL season; can they continue that into Week 3?
• See the NFL upset picks Matt McEwan and his formula are predicting this week

The 2024-25 NFL season has been defined by underdogs (and injuries, unfortunately) so far. Underdogs were 12-20 straight up heading into Week 3, but the Jets have added another win for the favorites to start the week, and both weeks have seen many of the biggest favorites lose outright.

If you read (and tailed) this article last week, you should be thrilled with all the underdogs winning so far. My SBD formula went 4-4 on its NFL upset picks in Week 2, profiting 4.6 units off of single-unit bets. That means a $100 risk on each of its picks from last week would have had you up $460. If you add in its TNF pick with the Bills upsetting the Dolphins, you would have won $585 last week.

My record was a little more modest at 1-1, but I did go up 0.4 units (+$40 off of $100 bets). Overall, a successful week for both, but one side definitely deserves more credit (I guess …). For Week 3, I have two more NFL moneyline picks to offer – again, we’re only here to talk about games where the underdog is going to win – but my SBD formula only has five NFL moneyline picks. I say “only” because it brought eight to the table last week. Here’s who we’re going with!

Week 3 NFL Moneyline Picks

The NFL moneyline odds above are accurate as of writing this article. Be sure to check in with our NFL odds page to ensure you’re getting the best odds at the time of reading this!

If you’re going to question any of my SBD formula’s NFL moneyline picks, I would refer you to go back up and read its record from last week. Saying the Saints, Bucs, and Vikings would all win in Week 2 also seemed pretty farfetched. But here we are, up good money thanks to my formula.

If anything, I’m sorry it’s only predicting five upsets. I wish there were more too. For what it’s worth, it did have the Patriots moneyline on TNF. The justification for my SBD formula’s picks lives within the stats/data it consumes, which I’m not telling you. So, you’ll have to stay curious.

I, however, will provide some analysis and justification for my NFL moneyline picks below:

Panthers Over Raiders

I want to start out by saying, I don’t like that I’m doing this. It feels a lot like when I picked the Giants in Week 1, which we all know turned out to be a disaster. But I am doing it. I’m betting the Panthers moneyline in Week 3.

I think the change at quarterback from Bryce Young to Andy Dalton is going to provide Carolina with the spark they need. Young has been bad! I think he’s been bad enough that is has dragged the whole team down. With Dalton under center, I think they’re able to move the ball a little bit and look like a somewhat competent group, which in turn will give their defense a nice boost too.

Looking at the team the Panthers play in Week 3, I think we’re a little too high on the Raiders after pulling off a huge upset in Week 2. As you’ll read below, I think that game was more about Baltimore losing than it was Las Vegas winning. The Raiders cannot stop the run, ranking second-last in YPC allowed (6.1!), and they cannot run the ball themselves, ranking dead-last in YPC (2.5).

There is plenty of opportunity to move the ball against the Las Vegas defense, and if Carolina can continue to bottle up the Raiders’ ground game, I’ll take my chances against Minshew having to shoulder the offense.

I’m expecting we see one of those games where Gardner Minshew’s play keeps their opponent around. I see this as a field goal game, so I love the value of +225 odds here.

• Pick: Panthers moneyline (+225 at FanDuel)

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Cowboys Over Ravens

Remember what I said earlier about the Ravens loss being more on them than it was the Raiders going and taking it? In saying that, I don’t just feel it was one bad performance that we are unlikely to see again. I think we see the Ravens continue to underperform if they don’t make some personnel changes.

I believe Baltimore is suffering from a couple bad fits in their offense, who they are trying to incorporate more because of their names, and are not yet ready to admit others would be better in those spots. If three of their five offensive linemen weren’t playing so poorly right now, I don’t think the personnel issue would be so obvious. But I don’t foresee those three offensive linemen all of a sudden turning a corner this week, and I also don’t believe Baltimore will make the personnel changes at skill positions either.

The two players I am talking about are Derrick Henry and Mark Andrews. To be clear, I like Henry a lot. I think he offers a ton of value to any team he is on. However, I don’t think this year’s Baltimore offense is a good fit, which is more about the offense than it is Henry. We’re seeing defenders meeting Henry in the backfield, before he’s up to speed and a force to tackle, too often and I’m not sure he has the same burst he used to.

The Ravens offense seems incapable of sustaining many 10+ play drives, because their offensive line either has a breakdown that results in negative yards, or they commit a penalty. This offense needs explosion outside of Lamar Jackson. (I can’t overstate how significant it is for Baltimore to not have Keaton Mitchell right now.)

Looking to Andrews, this one is more about who he’s keeping off the field / taking targets from. The Ravens nearly beat the Chiefs because of Isaiah Likely’s 111 receiving yards, which included a 49-yard touchdown. Andrews is a safety blanket who is going to get open underneath. That would be fine is the Ravens offensive line were better, but it’s not.

Derrick Henry looked good every time the line gave him a little push which often came from the left side *cough the most solidified side*. If the Ravens figure out how to get the right side on board this offense can be very dangerous. I think it’s personnel, start Ben Cleveland. pic.twitter.com/zFP4cdEB9o

— hezzo🏁 (@hezzosmith) September 16, 2024

Andrews went from seeing two targets in Week 1 to five in Week 2, whereas Likely saw 12 targets in Week 1 versus just three in Week 2. He also saw his snaps go down from 66% to 49%.

For this Ravens team to start winning games, one of two things will need to change: (1) the offensive line improves dramatically, or (2) they abandon being a slow, ground-and-pound offense and use some creativity to get the ball in the hands of their most explosive players.

I don’t think we see either of those on Sunday, and though I’m not a huge fan of the Cowboys, who got crushed by the Saints last week, I do like them to bounce back at home this week. Micah Parsons will give the Ravens’ offensive line fits.

• Pick: Cowboys moneyline (-105 at ESPN Bet)

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