NFL Moneyline Picks – 5 Upset Predictions for Week 1

• Week 1 of the NFL season is arguably the toughest week to handicap, as there are so many unknowns
• This makes Week 1 a great opportunity for picking underdogs on the moneyline
• See the teams I am predicting will pull off an upset in Week 1

Week 1 of every NFL season marks the most meaningful set of games with the most amount of uncertainty. I know we just saw each of these teams play three preseason games – two of them played four – but the preseason doesn’t mean anything, especially when it comes to the teams who barely played their starters. So, we’re collectively walking into another Week 1 sort of blind. But do you know who else isn’t confident in how good/bad each team will be? The sportsbooks.

This is why Week 1 is such a great time for moneyline picks, specifically plus-money / upset picks. Last year we saw underdogs win eight(!) of the 16 games outright in Week 1. All of the Lions (over Chiefs), Browns (over Bengals), Packers (over Bears), Buccaneers (over Vikings), Dolphins (over Chargers), Rams (over Seahawks), Raiders (over Broncos), and Jets (over Bills) won as underdogs, paying out plus-money to anyone who bet them on the moneyline.

I’m not suggesting there will be another eight upsets in this year’s Week 1, but I’m also not saying there won’t be! Here are my favorite plus-money moneyline bets to make for Week 1, though:

Week 1 NFL Moneyline Picks

I’m riding with the five moneyline picks in the table above and have included the sportsbook with the best odds at the time of writing this. In case anything changes by the time you read this, or if you do not have an account with the sportsbooks listed, be sure to check in with our NFL odds page, which does the line shopping for you while also displaying the odds from all major sportsbooks.

Now allow me to quickly explain why I like each of the teams above to pull off an upset in Week 1.

Giants Over Vikings

This is going to be a pretty common theme throughout my analysis for the five picks above: this pick is more about fading the Vikings than it is backing the Giants.

I feel like every time Sam Darnold joins a new team, we hear about how amazing he looks in practice. To be clear, I don’t doubt that he does look amazing in practice. Darnold is a wildly talented quarterback.

My confidence in Sam Darnold is even smaller now… pic.twitter.com/GJJ4gHrZuw

— Nick Whalen (@_NickWhalen) September 3, 2024

However, we have yet to see Darnold consistently stand in the pocket and calmly process what’s happening in front of him. It has especially been a problem for him when the defense is able to pressure him, whether that’s by blitzing or not. That is going to be a big problem, in my opinion, when he faces this Giants pass-rush, which may end up being one of the best in the league after adding Brian Burns to play alongside Dexter Lawrence and Kayvon Thibodeaux. This is the main reason I am fading the Vikings.

I hate the idea of putting my money in the hands of Daniel Jones, but let’s not forget what his first season under Brian Daboll looked like – his interception percentage was a league-best 1.1 and they won nine games. With Malik Nabers in the offense, I think Daboll can scheme up a gameplan to keep Jones playing safe football by putting the ball in his rookie’s hands quickly and letting him go make plays.

• Pick: Giants moneyline (+106)

Colts Over Texans

There are four reasons I like the Colts to pull off the upset in Week 1:

1. I believe Shane Steichen is one of the best coaches in the league
2. Anthony Richardson is an absolute weapon
3. I’m not so sure Stefon Diggs is going to be a good thing for the Texans offense
4. I have already said this a few times over the summer and will continue saying it until proven wrong – I think the Texans are overhyped this season

Further on #1, look at what Steichen was able to get out of Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia and even Gardner Minshew last year. Not to mention how good Richardson looked when he was healthy. He knows how to coach offense and is a great play-caller.

On #2, remember when Richardson threw for 56 yards and ran for 35 with two touchdowns in just 18 snaps against the Texans (in Houston) in Week 2 last year? If he can stay healthy, he’s going to be incredible with Steichen.

Stefon Diggs talked being traded from Buffalo and how he’s ready for a fresh start in Houston

(via @GQSports) pic.twitter.com/bpfmiK0tqN

— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) September 3, 2024

On Stefon Diggs, is he going to be ok not being the alpha receiver and not having gameplans built around him? I’m not sure. Also, if Houston does treat him that way, will it be the best thing for their offense? I don’t think so.

Perhaps my strongest point here is the Texans being a little overhyped. This feels too much like the Jags of 2023. If we look back to their run last season, they hung around for a half against a Ravens team that has perennially faltered in the playoffs, blew out Joe Flacco in the Wild Card Round, and barely beat the Gardner Minshew-led Colts in Week 18. If we go a little further back than that, they needed OT to beat the Titans in Week 15, were demolished by the Zach Wilson-led Jets in Week 14, and barely beat the lowly Broncos in Week 13. They even handed the Panthers one of their two wins in Week 8.

I’m just not sure this Texans team is that good.

• Pick: Colts moneyline (+143)

Broncos Over Seahawks

We’re back to that same theme from my first pick: this is more about fading the Seahawks than it is tailing the Broncos. Though, I do have much more faith in Denver than I did NYG above. But let’s dive into why I cannot believe the Seahawks are laying 5.5 points.

Seattle’s last five wins of the 2023-24 season all came by four points or less; they went 4-6 over the final ten weeks of the season; and their nine wins included beating the Panthers, Giants, Cardinals (twice), PJ Walker’s Browns, Commanders, and Titans. They lost to Mason Rudolph’s Steelers in Week 17 with their season on the line!

I appreciate their defense, which ranked 30th in yards allowed and 31st against the run, may get better with Mike Macdonald named as their new head coach, but how much better in one offseason?

On the other side, Sean Payton is giddy over having a quarterback that he feels really fits his system. He has this luxury after coming off an 8-9 season, where Russell Wilson looked awful under center and the defense ranked 29th in yards allowed, largely due to massive struggles early in the season.

• Pick: Broncos moneyline (+225)

Raiders Over Chargers

I think we’re a little too optimistic about the immediate effect Jim Harbaugh is going to have on this Chargers team. I think he’ll be good for them long-term, but I’m not sure how much he’ll be able to change in just one offseason. He has a bad defense to fix and an interior offensive line that’s arguably one of the worst in the league.

On the other side, the Raiders defense finished ninth in points allowed and seemed to get better each week after Antonio Pierce took over. If Las Vegas’ offense is just decent with Gardner Minshew under center, I think the Raiders will hang around a lot of games this season. I think they’ll oftentimes beat bad teams too.

• Pick: Raiders moneyline (+148)

Cowboys Over Browns

Let me start with this: I believe Jameis Winston is going to start games for the Cleveland Browns this season for non-injury reasons. Deshaun Watson has averaged 184.8 passing yards per game and posted an 81.7 passer rating over his 12 games in two seasons with the Browns. He has yet to show any sign of returning to the QB we saw in Houston.

In fact, he has been so bad that he made near-40-year-old Joe Flacco, who averaged 323.2 passing yards per game and posted a 90.2 passer rating in five regular season games with the Browns, look pretty damn good. While Cleveland’s defense may be one of the league’s best again, I think Watson is going to cost them games – this being one of them.

In what I believe will be a tight game, I see a ton of value in backing Dak Prescott and the Cowboys at +120 odds.

• Pick: Cowboys moneyline (+120)