Khalil Mack’s Projected 2018 Sack Total a Little Low After Dominant Week 1?
By Bryan Thiel in NFL Football
Updated: April 11, 2020 at 5:37 pm EDTPublished:
- Khalil Mack logged 1.0 sacks, one interception, two tackles, and a forced fumble Sunday night against the Packers
- Mack entered the 2018 NFL season tied for second in Defensive Player of the Year odds at +550
- Sportsbooks have released some over/unders on Mack’s 2018 season stats
Khalil Mack was an absolute monster in Week 1 for the Chicago Bears.
While the game will be known mostly for Aaron Rodgers’ heroics, Mack made his mark on the NFC North.
The newest member of the Bears provided pressure all night. It helped lead to the hit that took Rodgers (briefly) out of the game. It also helped remind us why DeShone Kizer is better suited to be a backup QB for the immediate future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfLsRelJsdY
But despite being everywhere, Mack finished with just one sack to go along with his pick-six.
Numbers that leave him as an underdog, in Vegas’ minds, to have the best year of his career.
How Many Sacks for Khalil Mack in 2018?
| O/U on Khalil Mack Sacks in 2018 | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 13.5 sacks | +100 |
| Under 13.5 sacks | -140 |
*Odds taken on September 12th
When looking at the potential of Mack getting at least 14 sacks this season, we have to consider many different things.
First of all, history.
New Bears pass rusher Khalil Mack is filling up the stat sheet. He already has a sack, interception, forced fumble, fumble recovery, and defensive TD in Week 1. The last player to do that in a game was…
Khalil Mack in Week 12, 2016 against the Panthers.
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) September 10, 2018
For his career, Mack has been a lock for double-digit sack totals since his rookie season. That includes a career-high 15 in 2015.
Khalil Mack Career Stats
| Season | Sacks |
|---|---|
| 2014 | 4 |
| 2015 | 15 |
| 2016 | 11 |
| 2017 | 10.5 |
Outside of Bruce Irvin’s eight sacks last year and seven in 2016, Mack essentially did it himself in Oakland.
That’s good, because Chicago doesn’t provide a much better surrounding cast. Akiem Hicks led the team with 8.5 sacks last year.
How does Khalil Mack stack up to opposing O-lines?
Then we have to look at opposing offensive lines.
Of their 15 remaining games, the Bears face eight offensive lines ranked 20 or worse at the beginning of the season (as per PFF). That doesn’t include the Lions, who were 19th last year, but jumped to 8th in the preseason rankings.
Going to start keeping track of Oakland #Raiders team pass rush/TFL stats compared to Khalil Mack's individual numbers.
Raiders: 1 sack, 2.5 TFL
Mack: 1 sack, 1 TFL— Sayre Bedinger (@SayreBedinger) September 11, 2018
Chicago also faces the 49ers, who were ranked 20th in 2017 but rose to 16th in the preseason rankings.
The Packers entered the season ranked ninth by PFF, but Mack clearly had no trouble with them in Week 1.
How Many Interceptions for Mack in 2018?
| O/U on Khalil Mack INTs in 2018 | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 INT | +160 |
| Under 1.5 INT | -200 |
The highlight of Mack’s night was when he picked off Kizer and took it back for a touchdown.
It was just the second interception of his career, but it was also the second pick-six of his career. His INT against the Packers also looked suspiciously like his first one against Cam Newton.
Despite Mack logging his first interception just 29 minutes into the new season, he’s still an underdog to get his second.
Mack set to face slew of talented QBs
Looking at the QBs he’s going to play, there’s a chance he could pull it off.
IF the Bears keep dropping him into coverage. And that’s a big if.
Khalil Mack is the only Bears player since 1950 with a sack, pick-six, and forced fumble in one game. – Pro Football Reference
He likely won’t be coming down with one against Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Kirk Cousins or Matthew Stafford. But a rusty Jameis Winston in Week 4 and a match-up with a turnover-prone Bills team in Week 9 give him a little hope.
Why did the Bears drop Khalil Mack into coverage on the biggest play of the game, 3rd and 10 from the Packers 20? He's the best pass rusher in football! He's also starting to run out of gas in his first action of the season.
— Skip Bayless (@RealSkipBayless) September 10, 2018
Also, with Rodgers suffering his knee injury early, it’s impossible to know what kind of shape he’ll be in for the rematch. Will he be back to full health by Week 15? Will he even be under center?
If not, it could be deja vu for DeShone Kizer.
Can Khalil Mack Hit Either OVER?
It’ll be tough for him to top 13.5 sacks this season. Even if you give him one sack for each of those nine offensive lines (Minnesota twice), he’s only at ten.
And while it’s nothing new, offenses will be keying on him in their protection schemes. He’ll have his work cut out for him.
KHALIL MACK: /gets strip sacks, pick sixes, boots field goals, adjusts camera angles for the viewers at home, shoots fireballs from his hands
JON GRUDEN: /goes 6-10 for four straight seasons and gets fired
— The Falcoholic (@TheFalcoholic) September 10, 2018
In terms of the picks? It’s tough not knowing how the Bears will deploy him, but Week 1 may have given us a hint.
Even if he only drops into coverage once or twice a game, it could be enough to get him interception number two in 2018.
He’s got 15 games to do it, and I wouldn’t bet against Khalil Mack twice in 2018.
Picks:
- Under 13.5 sacks
- Over 1.5 interceptions
Sports Writer
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
