Kansas City Chiefs vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction, Pick & Odds for Sunday Night Football

• Kansas City vs Atlanta is featured on Sunday Night Football
• The latest KC vs ATL odds favor the Chiefs by 3 points on the road
• Read below for Chiefs vs Falcons odds, prediction and betting trends

The Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) head to Mercedes-Benz Stadium for a Sunday Night Football showdown with the Atlanta Falcons (1-1) in Week 3. Despite the Chiefs’ perfect 2-0 start, money has been coming in on the Falcons, causing line movement in Atlanta’s direction.

The Chiefs are now only favored by 3 points in the Sunday Night Football odds. The over/under is offered at 46.5 for a matchup between two experienced quarterbacks.

Here is our Chiefs vs Falcons prediction for Sunday Night Football, along with a breakdown of the KC vs ATL odds.

Chiefs vs Falcons Prediction

I’m predicting the Falcons to cover the three-point spread on Sunday Night Football. Atlanta’s confidence is high after their upset win against the Eagles, and they have the tools to keep this game close.

The Falcons’ win in Week 2 showcased the team’s resiliency against a premier NFL squad. Kirk Cousins engineered an impressive fourth-quarter comeback, completing 8 of 10 passes for 75 yards and a touchdown in the victory.

Concerns still linger about Cousins’ Achilles injury. However, his recent SNF performances tells a different story. Kirk owns a 7-3 ATS record in his last 10 primetime games, debunking the narrative he struggles under the bright lights.

The entire game-winning drive from Kirk Cousins and the @AtlantaFalcons. #ATLvsPHI pic.twitter.com/7ms5Esas7b

— NFL (@NFL) September 17, 2024

On the flip side, Kansas City has looked disinterested at times this season, relying on their championship pedigree to turn it on when needed. Their laid-back approach, similar to an NBA team’s “load management,” will leave them vulnerable in close games.

The Chiefs’ offense will be further challenged with the loss of running back Isiah Pacheco to injury. While Kareem Hunt’s signing adds depth, his declining production in recent years raises concerns. KC’s running game on Sunday remains a major question mark.

Andy Reid says Pacheco is headed to IR to have surgery and has no timeline

Says it could be this season or the next pic.twitter.com/CRa9QybCXz

— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) September 18, 2024

The Falcons, meanwhile, boast a balanced offense. Rookie running back Bijan Robinson (4.7 yards per carry) leads the ground game, while receivers Darnell Mooney (11 receptions, 151 yards) and Drake London (8 receptions, 120 yards) aid the passing attack. This balance could help Atlanta control the clock and stay competitive.

Kansas City hasn’t beaten the Falcons by more than three points since 2004, and I think we are in for another close game Sunday. Kansas City’s 2-0 record could easily be 0-2, so I’m fading the public in the NFL public betting trends and riding with Kirk’s hot hand.

KC-ATL Pick:

• Falcons to Cover +3 (-105)

Chiefs vs Falcons Odds

The Chiefs opened as 4.5-point favorites, but sharp action has driven the line down. Some books now have Chiefs -3. Kansas City’s moneyline sits at -160, Atlanta’s at +135. The over/under is set at 46.5 points.

The Chiefs are favored due to being the two-time defending Super Bowl champions, plus the presence of perennial NFL MVP odds contender Patrick Mahomes. Not to mention, Andy Reid is the greatest coach in the game.

When Mahomes starts that finger wiggle, you know he's locked in ☝️ @Chiefs pic.twitter.com/hXBE1oXSDr

— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) September 20, 2024

However, KC’s tendency to play close games makes laying the points risky. Kansas City is 1-1 against the spread (ATS) this season when favored by three or more points, while Atlanta is 1-0 ATS as an underdog of three or more.

The Falcons are 3-2 straight up against the Chiefs in their last five meetings. Notably, Kansas City hasn’t beaten Atlanta by more than three points in any of those games. This trend bodes well for the Falcons’ keeping things close on Sunday night.

With sharp bettors backing Atlanta and the line moving in their favor, the Falcons appear to be the right side for those fading public sentiment on the Chiefs. The game’s outcome, however, will likely hinge on Atlanta’s ability to contain Mahomes and KC’s success in overcoming backfield injuries.

Odds as of Sep. 22 at ESPN Bet. Check out the best NFL betting apps for Sunday Night Football.