Jets vs 49ers Same-Game Parlay for Monday Night Football

• NFL Week 1 concludes tonight with the New York Jets vs San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football
• Coming back from an Achilles injury, 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers is playing his first game in a year
• Below, see my three-leg, +287 Jets vs 49ers same-game parlay for MNF on Sep. 9

Storylines abound in the first Monday Night Football game of the 2024 season as Aaron Rodgers makes his return to the field for the New York Jets against the reigning NFC-champion San Francisco 49ers. Rodgers, who hasn’t played since tearing his Achilles in Week 1 of last season, brings his team to the Bay Area as four-point underdogs in the Jets vs 49ers odds while the game total is sitting at just 43.5 points.

Kick-off from Levi’s Stadium is scheduled for 5:15 pm PT/8:15 pm ET tonight. The general theme from the first 15 games of Week 1 was that the defenses were a little ahead of the offenses, and I expect that to continue on MNF with two elite defenses on the field. As a result, my Jets vs 49ers same-game parlay targets a trio of unders which are somewhat correlated.

Jets vs 49ers Same-Game Parlay

My three-leg NYJ vs SF same-game parlay starts with a bet on under the alternate total of 47.5 points, continues with the under on New York’s WR1 Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards (68.5), and concludes with the under on Rodgers’ first-quarter passing-yards (47.5).

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Odds as of Sep. 9 at FanDuel. See the full list of US betting sites to bet on Monday Night Football. 

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 NFL picks: 4-2 (+1.64 units)

NYJ vs SF Same-Game Parlay Pick #1: Under 47.5 Points

There is a ton of offensive star power in this game, but I still expect the defenses to be a step ahead. The starters on both sides all saw very limited – if any – action in the preseason, and timing is way more of an issue for the offense than it is the defense. On top of that, the Jets vs 49ers injury reports list reigning Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey as questionable with a calf/Achilles issue. If he’s even moderately slowed, that’s a significant setback for the San Francisco attack.

Christian McCaffrey (calf, achilles) is questionable for #49ers season opener vs. Jets on Monday Night. This is CMC today at practice. #FTTB #JetUp @nbcbayarea pic.twitter.com/CSaWsbj6Xy

— Anthony Flores (@AnthonyTVSports) September 7, 2024

The Jets ranked third in the league last season in Defensive DVOA, while the Niners were just behind in fourth. Both return the bulk of their playmakers on that side of the ball, or have adequately replaced them (see the 49ers replacing Arik Armstead with Leonard Floyd, who’s piled up 39.5 sacks over the last three years with the Bears and Rams).

The game total is sitting at 43.5 and I’ve picked an alt-total of 47.5 as the first leg of tonight’s SGP.

The fact that the NFL public betting percentages show the vast majority of money on the over (70% of handle as of 11:30 am ET) doesn’t give me any pause. The public is just 406-418 in its ATS bets over the last three years.

Jets vs 49ers SGP Pick #2: Rodgers Under 47.5 First Quarter Passing Yards

My colleague John Hyslop explained in his Jets vs 49ers props why he’s targeting both QBs to stay under their full-game yardage totals: this is apt to be a run-heavy game, especially early on.

Aaron Rodgers played all of four snaps in 2023 before tearing his Achilles. If New York’s first play from scrimmage isn’t a run, I’ll be stunned. And I generally expect a run-heavy script from the Jets in the first half as they ease their aging pivot back into game shape.

With all the talent in the New York secondary, I also expect the 49ers to feed their running backs a heavy dosage in the early going, and if we get ground-heavy attacks on both sides in the first quarter, the time is going to evaporate quickly. 

Low-scoring first quarters have been a trend throughout Week 1. The league average was just 8.1 points per first quarter in the first 15 games of Week 1.

Jets vs 49ers SGP Pick #3: Wilson Under 68.5 Receiving Yards

The final leg of tonight’s Jets/Niners same-game parlay is Garrett Wilson to stay under 68.5 receiving yards.  Wilson finished last year with 1,042 yards in 17 games (61.3 YPG) and while Rodgers represents a big step up in terms of who’s throwing to Wilson, the Jets also added more receiving options.

Last year, Wilson was New York’s undisputed top target, with the uninspired tandem of Allen Lazard and Xavier Gipson behind him on the depth chart. This year, New York brought in longtime Charger Mike Williams to give Wilson some much-needed help out wide. They also drafted Malachi Corley in the third round.

Garrett Wilson averaged 17.3 fantasy PPG without Zach Wilson. That would make him the QB9.

pic.twitter.com/v8iiz8p1fV

— Adam Rank (@adamrank) July 17, 2023

New York’s passing game is no longer Wilson-or-bust, and expectations are sky-high for the new-look corps.

But even if Wilson was/is still the only realistic outside threat, San Francisco has one of the league’s top secondaries. PFF puts the Niners second overall in its secondary power rankings, trailing only the Jets.

In a game where I expect the clock to run and the defenses to have the upper hand, I strongly lean to the under on Wilson’s receiving yards, which is 18 yards higher than any player on the board on Monday Night Football.