Expert NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 7

• This week’s expert NFL ATS picks include picks from seven different games
• Can the Chargers keep things close in Kansas City as 5.5-point dogs?
• Read on for our expert NFL picks against the spread for Week 8 below

Among our Week 7 NFL expert picks against the spread we’re banking on the Bills putting a beat down on the AFC East rivals New England, the Chargers being competitive in KC and the Dolphins coming out on top on SNF. Read on for all of our NFL ATS picks this weekend here.

NFL Expert Picks Today

Our Week 7 NFL ATS picks come in with picks on seven different teams this weekend and the Bills and Chargers being the most popular.

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Ryan Metivier

Bills (-8.5)

Yes I have concerns that Buffalo just barely got by the awful New York Giants last week and that Josh Allen is nursing banked up shoulder.

But Buffalo was coming back from London and Allen says he’ll be ready to go in this AFC East rivalry that has seen Buffalo win each of the past four.

And I just have more concerns with New England and Mac Jones because there is no real path to success right now. Mac Jones looks lost and has been benched in 2/3 games. He’s thrown 0 TDs and 5 INTs in those past three games, the Patriots have been outscored 93-20 in that time and their typically strong defense is just 24th in PPG allowed.

Browns (-1.5)

Because it’s the NFL and such a week-to-week it would make total sense if the Colts pulled off this upset. But in reality, it wouldn’t. The Browns own the league’s top defense in yards allowed per game (200.4) and are giving up the fifth-fewest points per game at just 15.4.

They may not be scoring a ton of points (19.0 PPG) and PJ Walker was by no means great last week throwing for only 192, 0 TDs and 2 INTs, but the defense is doing it’s job.

Last week it held the 49ers offense to just 215 yards and upset the Super Bowl favorites 19-17.

The Colts have their own backup quarterback starting in Gardner Minshew. Minshew and the Colts lost 37-20 to the Jags last week. And while Minshew threw for 329 yards, it came on 55 pass attempts an he finished with just 1 TD and 3 INTs. it also came versus a Jags pass defense that ranks 31st. The Browns are 1st in that category and should wreak havoc on Minshew and the Colts.

But let’s consider a few more stats. The Browns have held all five opponents this season to under 300 yards of total offense. And only Kenny Pickett has thrown for more than 200 yards against them, and in that game, one 71-yard reception made up most of that total. Browns as short road favs for me in the picks against the spread for Week 7.

The Browns defense has been HISTORIC this season pic.twitter.com/algmalknwQ

— PFF (@PFF) October 20, 2023

Dolphins (+2.5)

These two teams are on pace to become just the fifth and sixth teams since 1970 to average 250+ passing yards and 150+ rushing yards.

The Dolphins are the league’s top offense and when it comes to yards per play there is a bigger gap between them (8.0) and 2nd place Buffalo and San Fran (6.0) than there is between second place the 32nd placed New York Giants at 4.1.

Absolutely the Jets defense is miles better than the Fins, but the Jets and Patriots hung 20 on the Eagles and those offenses 22nd and 31st in PPG.

Bob Duff

Chargers (+5.5)

Fear the Kansas City . . . defense? The Chiefs are the only NFL team to allow 21 or fewer points in every game this season. But KC is 1-5 ATS in the past six against the Chargers.

Kansas City’s offense has been underwhelming this season. The Chiefs came to SoFi Field to play their AFC West rivals from LA last year as the 5.5-point away chalk. The Chiefs won but failed to cover in a 30-27 victory.

Lions (+3)

No team covers like the Lions under head coach Dan Campbell. They’re an NFL best 28-12 ATS under his leadership and 11-6 ATS as an away underdog.

Baltimore lives by the run game. The Ravens are fourth in the NFL (144.8 YPG). Detroit is the NFL’s #1 run defense. The Lions have allowed 388 yards on the ground. That’s the lowest total posted by the team’s defense through six games since 1933.

Bills (-8.5)

For the past three games, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has been sitting on 299 NFL career wins. Over that three game span New England is 0-3 SU and ATS and has been outscored 93-20. The Patriots are 1-9 ATS over their past 10 games.

This is certainly an opportunity for the Bills to fix what’s ailing them. Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in the last six against New England and 6-1 SU in the past seven games. Buffalo is 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three visits to Foxborough.

Zach Reger

Buccaneers (-2.5)

This is mainly a bet on the Buccaneers defense. Desmond Ridder has not played well on the road in his short career, and Atlanta has not been able to run the ball as well as they would like to. In comes the Tampa Bay defense who is a top unit against the run this year.

At home, Tampa Bay’s offense has enough playmakers to win this divisional game by at least a field goal.

Packers (-1)

The Packers are coming off a much-needed bye, and I like them to take care of business in Denver. The Broncos defense looked a little better against the Chiefs last week after getting some players back, but Denver’s defense can still be taken advantage of. I expect Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon to run the ball well and take the pressure off of Jordan Love.

Green Bay goes on the road and gets the win for my expert picks against the spread.

.@ColinCowherd isn't selling his Justin Herbert stock:

"I'm sorry folks, but he checks every box… This is what we do with quarterbacks." pic.twitter.com/NI7n9mcVuu

— Herd w/Colin Cowherd (@TheHerd) October 17, 2023

Chargers (+5.5)

The Chargers and Chiefs know each other very well. Even though the Chiefs normally come out on top, the Chargers are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games against Kansas City.

Every Chargers game this season has been a one-score game, and I expect that to continue on Sunday. 5.5 is too many points in this divisional matchup.