Expert NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 18

• Get our top expert NFL Week 18 ATS picks for January 7-8, 2022
• We have experts going head-to-head in both the Titans vs Jaguars and Ravens vs Steelers games
• Read on for our expert NFL picks against the spread for Week 18 below

NFL Week 18 kicks off with a Saturday double-header which kicks starts our expert NFL picks against the spread with a play on the Raiders. The season concludes on Sunday with the final 14 games culminating with the Lions vs Packers on SNF. We have nine ATS picks spread across the card so let’s dive into the best bets below.

Our season-long ATS record is currently 80-82-7.

Expert NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 18

Odds as of January 6. Check out this Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on the NFL this weekend

Our expert ATS picks above include picks on both Saturday and Sunday and feature plays on nine different teams.

Ryan Metivier

• Buccaneers (+4.5) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Seeing the Bucs as underdogs to the Falcons makes you do a double-take. Tom Brady and a host of starters could sit this one out with Tampa having locked up a playoff spot last week by winning the NFC South. However, so far, the Bucs have said they’ll be playing their starters.

The Bucs’ offense has struggled with Brady under center. The prospects of Blaine Gabbert or Kyle Trask stepping in and changing things seems unlikely. But neither do the prospects of Falcons’ backup David Blough covering a 4.5-point spread. Atlanta won 20-19 last week over the Cardinals, their only win in five games. They have just six wins on the season. Those wins have come by 1, 3, 3, 14, 3 and 3 points.

How long do you think the @Buccaneers starters will play against the @AtlantaFalcons this weekend?@IKaufman76 joined @paulyhoward and @MitchMossRadio on #FollowTheMoney to discuss what Tampa Bay could do in their matchup against Atlanta

For more, visit https://t.co/3zTr7PSvf3 pic.twitter.com/UhDVU5yinG

— VSiN (@VSiNLive) January 6, 2023

• Vikings (-5.5) at Bet365

It’s back to the well with the Minnesota Vikings after they served up a complete no-show last week losing 41-17 in Green Bay. If anything, that scoreline makes things look better than they were as the Vikings scored two touchdowns late in the fourth quarter.

Minnesota was just a 1-point favorite earlier in the week, but that number soared to 8-points once Justin Fields was ruled out with a hip injury. That places backup Nathan Peterman under center. It’s back down to 5.5-points now.

Fields was basically option one, two and three for the Bears’ offense. Peterman has thrown just six passes this year. For his career, he’s 74/141 with three touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He’s also only rushed for 84 total yards. So that dynamic from Chicago’s offense is gone in Week 18. There’s really no incentive for Chicago to win here, so let’s back Minnesota.

• Raiders (+9.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Chiefs have 13 wins on the year but seven of those wins have come by six or fewer points (3, 6, 6, 3, 3, 1, 3).

In recent weeks they’ve struggled to get past the Broncos (27-24), the Texans (30-24 OT) and the Broncos again (34-28). Patrick Mahomes is their ultimate cheat code and usually can do enough to pull out the wins, but they just rarely cover as big favorites. KC is just 5-10-1 ATS this season. Only the Buccaneers have a worse ATS record.

One of those close wins mentioned above came against these Raiders back on October 10 by a 30-29 scoreline. And while Las Vegas’ season is over and starting QB Derek Carr has been benched, they showed life last week pushing San Francisco to overtime and losing 37-34. Backup QB Jarrett Stidham is playing for an offseason contract and threw for 365 yards and three touchdowns against the 49ers’ second-ranked defense.

Las Vegas totaled 500 yards of offense against the 49ers and the Chiefs’ defense will be a big step down. The Raiders may not win, but in their home season finale, they’ll make the Chiefs work for the win and keep it close in our Chiefs vs Raiders picks.

Zach Reger

• Titans (+6.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Am I really betting on Josh Dobbs over Trevor Lawrence in a win-and-in situation? 100%. Josh Dobbs came in last week for Tennessee despite only being with the team for eight days, and believe it or not, looked better than Malik Willis. There is still not a lot of tape on Dobbs for the Jaguars’ defense to decipher, and the Titans could throw a few more wrinkles into the offense to make some plays. 6.5 is too many points in a divisional matchup with a playoff spot on the line.

• Panthers (+3.5) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Laying any points with the Saints is a recipe I would not recommend. The Panthers lost out on their shot at the NFC South last week, but Steve Wilks is still coaching to win. He wants to be the coach for the Panthers next season and has a chance if they win this game. The players have been fighting hard for Wilks and are also playing for their next contracts. Underdogs in divisional matchups this season are 47-33 (58.8%). Carolina will keep this one within a field goal.

I feel Steve Wilks has proven that he deserves to be the HC of the Panthers. The players want him; the fans want him.
🎥 @Queen_City_News pic.twitter.com/nML2oY54AW

— Sheena Quick (@Sheena_Marie3) January 4, 2023

• Ravens (+10) at FanDuel Sportsbook. Claim your FanDuel Sportbook promo code for Week 18 here

I’ll take one more divisional underdog for my expert NFL picks against the spread. This is a bet on the Ravens’ defense. Baltimore lives in close games. In their six losses this season, they have only lost by more than one score once, and that was a 10-point game. Anthony Brown may be the starter for the Ravens, but when he came in relief of Tyler Huntley in Week 14, Baltimore was able to move the ball. The Cincinnati offense will be a big test for Baltimore’s defense, but if they play well like they have all year, covering 10 points should not be an issue.

Bob Duff

• Jaguars (-6.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Losers of six in a row SU (0-5-1 ATS), the injury-riddled Titans are sticking with Josh Dobbs as their QB1. He’ll be making his second career NFL start in Tennessee’s biggest game of the season.

Two weeks ago, Tennessee lost to the 2-13-1 Houston Texans. Last week, Jacksonville, 5-1 ATS in the last six games, whipped Houston 31-3.

• Lions (+5) at FanDuel Sportsbook

That the Packers and Lions are here at all with a chance at the postseason is somewhat amazing. Detroit was 1-3. the Lions have gone 7-2 SU since (8-1 ATS). Green Bay was 4-8. The Packers have won four in a row and are 4-1 ATS over the past five games.

However, it’s the Lions who are 7-2 ATS in the last nine games against the Packers.

• Jaguars (-6.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook

There are two factors on the line for Pittsburgh. Win over the Browns and they can still make the playoffs. Either way with a victory, the Steelers finish 9-8. That assures head coach Mike Tomlin will have been in charge for 16 seasons and never suffered a losing campaign.

Pittsburgh is 18-1 SU in the last 19 home games against Cleveland. The Steelers are also 5-1 ATS over the past six games.

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