Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley Neck-and-Neck in Odds to Lead NFL in Rushing Yards
By Chris Amberley in NFL Football
Updated: March 31, 2020 at 12:08 pm EDTPublished:
- Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley are the clear favorites to win the 2018 rushing title
- Elliott and Gurley are separated by just 31 rushing yards
- Elliott’s volume is increasing down the stretch while Gurley’s is fading
Ezekiel Elliott has an insatiable appetite for rushing the football.
The Cowboys star running back is on pace for a career high 384 touches this season and now leads the NFL in rushing after racking up 121 yards on the ground in Week 12.
.@EzekielElliott & @TG3II join the 1k yard club after Week 12. pic.twitter.com/XpaGQXqodn
— SNF on NBC (@SNFonNBC) November 28, 2018
Elliott and Rams All-Pro Running Back Todd Gurley are the only 1,000-yard rushers in the NFL this season and have by far the shortest odds to win the rushing title.
Odds to Lead NFL in Rushing Yards in 2018
| Most Rushing Yards in 2018 Regular Season | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | -120 |
| Todd Gurley | LAR | -110 |
| James Conner | PIT | +1500 |
| Saquon Barkley | NYG | +2000 |
| Kareem Hunt | KC | +3300 |
Elliott, the preseason favorite to win the award, is trying to become just the second player in franchise history to capture multiple rushing crowns.
Through the first 12 weeks of the season, this two-horse race has been nearly a dead heat.
Ezekiel Elliott vs Todd Gurley 2018 Rushing Stats
| 217 | Rush Attempts | 210 |
| 1074 | Rush Yards Total | 1043 |
| 4.9 | Yards Per Carry | 5.0 |
| 394 | Rush Yards Last 3 Games | 243 |
| 16.6 | Avg. Opponent Rush DVOA Rank in Final 5 Games | 15.2 |
But if we dig a little deeper we’ll discover that Elliott’s rushing yards have a much larger impact on his team’s total offense.
Elliott’s 1,074 rush yards account for 29.2% of the Cowboys offense, while Gurley’s rushing totals only account for 21.1%Â of the Rams offense.
Zeke just tossing dudes now ? @EzekielElliott pic.twitter.com/zE5RucTJAK
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) November 22, 2018
Feed Zeke down the stretch
The Cowboys have won three straight in large part because they have leaned heavily on Zeke.
3rd straight game with 120+ yards rushing.@EzekielElliott‘s BEST RUNS from Week 12! #WASvsDAL pic.twitter.com/YxrlNc79v2
— NFL (@NFL) November 23, 2018
He’s racked up 86 touches, including 68 carries, over that stretch for 531 total yards, the most in any three-game span in his career.
Gurley on the other hand, hasn’t topped 16 carries since October 28th, despite playing in three straight games decided by 10 points or less.
Todd Gurley owners right now #KCvsLAR pic.twitter.com/KMG9owCDeN
— Between the Pylons (@betweenpylons) November 20, 2018
Volume is King
With nearly identical stats and a similar strength of remaining opponents, this year’s rushing champ will be determined by how much volume they receive over the final five weeks of the season. If the last month is any indication, this should greatly favor Elliott.
Over their past three games, the Cowboys have a rushing frequency of 45.5%Â compared to only 31.8% for the Rams.
Even if regression kicks in and that gap closes a bit, the end result will still be more carries for Elliott, assuming their market share of rush attempts remains the same. More carries equals more yards. I’m betting on Elliott’s volume at -120.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
