Dolphins vs 49ers Props – Waddle Primed for Major Production
By Chris Amberley in NFL Football
Updated: March 16, 2023 at 1:31 pm EDTPublished:
- Dolphins vs 49ers Player Props for their Week 13 matchup on Sunday (Dec. 4) are live
- Will Jaylen Waddle exceed 5.5 receptions? Can Jimmy Garoppolo avoid throwing an INT?
- The complete list of Dolphins vs 49ers Player Props can be found below, along with best bets
The late afternoon window in Week 13 is absolutely loaded. It’s highlighted by the Chiefs-Bengals clash, but also features a projected shootout between the Chargers and Raiders, along with the Dolphins-49ers tilt.
The last game of that list has our attention in the Week 13 player props, and we’ve put together a card highlighting our favorite bets. It starts by backing Miami’s Jaylen Waddle, who should see plenty of volume against a tough San Fran defense.
Dolphins vs 49ers Player Props
| Quarterbacks | Completions | Passing Yards | Passing TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) | 23.5 (Ov +105 | Un -140) | 273.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) | 1.5 (Ov -140 | Un +105) |
| Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) | 22.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) | 250.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) | 1.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) |
| Running Backs | Attempts | Rush Yards | Rush + Rec Yards |
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | OFF | 53.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) | OFF |
| Wide Receivers + Tight Ends | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Longest Reception |
| Brandon Aiyuk (SF) | 4.5 (Ov -105 | Un -130) | 56.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) | 22.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) |
| George Kittle (SF) | OFF | 40.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) | OFF |
| Jaylen Waddle (MIA) | 5.5 (Ov +105 | Un -140) | 67.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) | 23.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) |
| Tyreek Hill (MIA) | 7.5 (Ov +115 | Un -155) | 90.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) | 27.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) |
| Mike Gesicki (MIA) | 2.5 (Ov +150 | Un -200) | 21.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) | 13.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) |
| Trent Sherfield (MIA) | 2.5 (Ov +150 | Un -200) | 23.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) | 14.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) |
Odds as of December 2 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Get the DraftKings promo code to bet on your Dolphins vs 49ers Week 13 player props.
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Waddle has a receptions over/under prop of 5.5, which is two less than teammate Tyreek Hill’s. Both players are plus-money to go over their prop, a number that Waddle has cleared three times this season.
Dolphins vs 49ers Prop #1: Waddle Over 5.5 Rec and 67.5 Rec Yards
The Dolphins are 4-point underdogs, so right away game script should favor a pass-heavy approach assuming they’re playing from behind. Miami ranks sixth in pass rate over expectation this season, while the Niners top-two run defense should neutralize any Dolphins run game threat, forcing them to the air regardless of script.
San Fran also features a fantastic pass rush, which shouldn’t leave Tua Tagovailoa too much time to throw. He’ll need to target quick-hitting slants and crossers, and no Miami receiver does that better than Waddle.
McDaniel on Jaylen Waddle:
"very talented players aren't always that hungry to be coached…he's the opposite. he continues to learn each and every week. the guy has a chance to be really good & chase greatness when you have that talent…the dolphins got a good one in him."
— josh houtz (@houtz) November 28, 2022
The sophomore receiver has seen 46 targets over his last six games, reaching at least 68 receiving yards in all but one of those matchups.
Pick: Jaylen Waddle Over 5.5 Receptions (+105), 1 unit, Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-115), 1 unit
Dolphins vs 49ers Prop #2: Jimmy Garoppolo Under 0.5 Interceptions
Jimmy Garoppolo makes mistakes most often when teams can get home with just four rushers and drop seven players back in coverage. Against the blitz, he actually performs quite well because he identifies his hot route quickly or simply checks it down.
Anybody who ever disrespects Jimmy Garoppolo again, just show them this. #49ers
— Emmanuel Acho (@EmmanuelAcho) November 29, 2022
Only six teams blitz at a higher rate than Miami, while the Dolphins have racked up interceptions in just three of 11 games so far this season. Jimmy G meanwhile, has thrown an INT in only three of 11 starts. He’s going to feast on Miami over the middle of the field when they send extra rushers.
Pick: Jimmy Garoppolo Under 0.5 Interceptions (-115), 1 unit
Dolphins vs 49ers TD Props
| Player | Odds to Score 1st TD | Odds to Score Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | +425 | -160 |
| Deebo Samuel (SF) | +650 | +105 |
| Brandon Aiyuk (SF) | +800 | +130 |
| Jeff Wilson Jr. (MIA) | +850 | +115 |
| Jordan Mason (SF) | +850 | +140 |
| George Kittle (SF) | +900 | +155 |
| Tyrion Davis-Price (SF) | +950 | +165 |
| Tyreek Hill (MIA) | +1000 | +140 |
| Jaylen Waddle (MIA) | +1100 | +150 |
| Raheem Mostert (MIA) | +1200 | +180 |
| Jauan Jennings (SF) | +1400 | +250 |
| Mike Gesicki (MIA) | +2000 | +310 |
| 49ers Defense | +2500 | +500 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) | +2800 | +550 |
| Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) | +3000 | +550 |
| Kyle Juszczyk (SF) | +3500 | +700 |
| Dolphins Defense | +3500 | +600 |
As far as the anytime touchdown market goes, Christian McCaffrey has the shortest odds to score at -160. His teammate George Kittle isn’t too far behind, and this is a mouth-watering matchup for the tight end.
Dolphins vs 49ers Prop #3: George Kittle Anytime TD
If Jimmy G is going to be peppering pass catchers over the middle, Kittle should have a big day. The Niners’ tight end is a matchup nightmare when San Fran sends him out on routes, and a tilt versus the Dolphins is the perfect time to do so.
NFL Bottom-5 Defense vs TE Stats
| Team | REC | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 83 | 880 | 9 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 80 | 711 | 6 |
| Miami Dolphins | 85 | 643 | 7 |
| Detroit Lions | 72 | 616 | 7 |
| New England Patriots | 50 | 503 | 8 |
Miami has surrendered the third most production to enemy tight ends, and has coughed up seven touchdowns to that position. Kittle has scored four times in his past five games, and is a strong bet to find the end zone again on Sunday.
Pick: George Kittle Anytime TD (+155), 1 unit
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
