Does Darius Leonard have the Defensive Rookie of the Year Wrapped Up?

• Darius Leonard has taken a commanding lead in the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year race
• Can the Colts linebacker finishe the year strong?
• Can Derwin James and Denzel Ward close the gap? 

At the midway point of the season, most of the awards races are down to three horses and the Defensive Rookie of the Year race is no exception.

But a surprising horse charged from nowhere to take the odds-on lead, Colts linebacker Darius Leonard.

Odds to Win 2018 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year

Not only was Leonard drafted a round later than Denzel Ward and Derwin James, but the position he plays has become far less valued as the passing game in the NFL continues to explode.

2018 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds

*Follow the link in the table to see all betting options

Leonard forced his way up the 2018 Defensive Rookie of the Year odds board with his ability to get stops both in the air and on the ground.

He’s currently the league’s leading tackler and Pro Football Focus has him tied for the league lead with 31 defensive stops. Does he all but have this award sewn up?

Defensive Rookie of the Year’s Linebacker Drought

As mentioned earlier, the huge changes in the way NFL offenses operate has negated the impact of the traditional 4-3 linebackers.

From 2004 to 2009, five of the six award winners were traditional middle linebackers, who racked up tons of tackles while stopping the run. Since then, Luke Kuechly is the only non-edge rushing linebacker to win the honor.

Good thing Leonard has been playing to Kuechly’s level.

Bobby Wagner has been the top linebacker in the NFL so far this season, while two rookies round out the top five. pic.twitter.com/9v2T0bAh86

— PFF (@PFF) November 1, 2018

These rankings come with a grain of salt: after all, Vander Esch is +4000. But while the Cowboys linebacker has been strong too, he isn’t making the game changing plays that Leonard is.

NFL Film Room: Wk 8

Darius Leonard is on pace for 201 TKLs 9 SKs 6 FFs. Will he keep up this ridiculous pace? Unlikely. But he's putting together quite the case for DROY

AND he closed out the game with this incredible strip

Read about this & more: https://t.co/6W6fyGi5dD pic.twitter.com/AFixTeXWuq

— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) October 30, 2018

Leonard has four sacks and a pressure rate of 30% when he goes after the QB. He has two pass breakups and has played 52 snaps in slot coverage, grading out pretty well in coverage. And oh yeah, he also has three forced fumbles and two fumbles recovered. You can be as steady a tackler as you want, but if you aren’t putting up the sexy stats too, its hard to stand out in the DROY race.

Can Leonard’s Fellow Rookies Close the Gap?

Speaking of sexy stats, James and Ward have been racking up some impact plays as well. James has 3.5 sacks and six QB hits while blitzing and an interception, and six pass breakups on the back end. Ward has three interceptions, 11 breakups, and a forced fumble himself.

Both of them are still very much alive in this race, but I only like James to close the gap over the second half. Working against Ward is a few things: 1) the Browns are in complete disarray and under Gregg Williams, they’re poised to keep getting blown out in the second half of the season and 2) he’s done playing Big Ben.

Denzel Ward with his 2nd INT in his first NFL game! #GoBucks https://t.co/4WnHXD6WqZ

— Buckeye Videos+ (@BuckeyeVideos) September 9, 2018

James however, is the driving force on a Chargers D that looks like a real contender. So, not only will more eyeballs be on him down the stretch, but with Joey Bosa poised to return soon and put more heat on opposing QBs, he should have a lot more chances at interceptions down the stretch.

The Play

I don’t like the value for Leonard right now considering James is still very much alive in this race. That would be the horse I back at the halfway mark.