Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills Odds, Picks & Predictions (Wild Card Round)

• The Bills are 8.5-point home favorites over the Broncos on Wild Card Weekend
• Rookie QB’s versus Sean McDermott defenses have a 7-to-17 TD-to-INT rate
• Check out the Broncos vs Bills odds, picks and predictions, below

Wild Card Weekend continues on Sunday afternoon, with another AFC clash. The Denver Broncos visit the Buffalo Bills in the first of three games on the Sunday slate, and they’ll do so as heavy underdogs according to the latest football betting lines. Kickoff for this AFC playoff tilt is scheduled for 1pm ET from Highmark Stadium, in Orchard Park, NY, with CBS providing the broadcast coverage.

Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills Odds

Buffalo is currently favored by 8.5 points, in a contest with a total of 47.5. The spread has fluctuated between -8 and -9 all week, while the over/under hasn’t budged from its opening line according to the NFL public betting percentages. 

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Buffalo is a Bad Matchup for Bo

Sunday will mark the first playoff start of rookie Bo Nix’s career. Denver was a league best 12-5 against the spread in Nix’s inaugural campaign, but picking on rookie QB’s in the postseason has been a profitable trend.

First year quarterbacks are 0-5 straight up and 1-4 against the spread in the playoffs over the last 10 years. Buffalo defenses under Sean McDermott have feasted on rookie pivots during his tenure, picking off 17 passes and allowing only 7 TD.

This Bills defense in particular is primed to slow Nix down. Buffalo deploys a zone and cover 2 heavy scheme, which is exactly the type of defenses Nix struggles against.

In the past 10 years, rookie quarterbacks in road playoff games:

L
L
L
L
L

Rookie QBs are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS. ❌

Wild Card Rookies
▪️ Broncos (Bo Nix) +9 at Bills
▪️ Commanders (Jayden Daniels) +3 at Buccaneers pic.twitter.com/VLt8JHYHcE

— John Ewing (@johnewing) January 10, 2025

Nix ranks 31st among QB’s this season in yards per attempt versus zone defenses, and 25th in success rate. His interception rate balloons to 3.3% versus two-high looks, while his expected points added per play against cover 2 is -0.02. That means every time he drops back versus cover 2 defenses, Denver loses expected points.

Sean Payton deserves a ton of credit for getting this team in the playoffs, but his offense has performed poorly versus postseason competition. In six games against playoff teams (that played their starters), Denver averaged only 16.5 points per game. Against non-playoff teams on the other hand, they averaged 29 points per contest.

Can Broncos Contain Allen?

On the other side of the ball, no team is going to shut down Josh Allen. The Bills star is operating at the peak of his powers, vaulting Buffalo into a Super Bowl odds contender in a year they were supposed to take a step back.

Denver may not be able to completely neutralize the Bills attack, but they do have the ingredients to slow it down. They rank second in pressure rate and yards per carry allowed, and top-five in pass rush productivity.

Pro Football Focus has them graded as the sixth best coverage unit, and it’s not hard to make an argument that Patrick Surtain is the best corner in football.

"Patrick Surtain is the best corner in football."

And @RSherman_25 says it's not particularly close 😳 pic.twitter.com/DGBlHylPKz

— NFL on Prime Video (@NFLonPrime) December 20, 2024

If we look at the game where Buffalo’s offense struggled the most, it came against a defense with quite a few similarities to the Broncos.

Allen and the Bills were dreadful against the Texans, posting one of their worst success rates of the season. Like Denver, Houston generates tons of pressure off the edge, and gets elite corner back play from Derek Stingley Jr.

Broncos vs Bills Prediction

Now chances are history won’t repeat itself, and Buffalo won’t put up another dreadful performance. However, it’s not a stretch to suggest they won’t move the ball as well as they normally do versus this very strong Broncos defense.

Denver’s prowess on that side of the ball, coupled with a terrible matchup for their offense brings the under squarely into play. The Broncos played plenty of high scoring games versus inferior competition, but that wasn’t the case against quality opponents.

Denver was 4-3 to the under versus playoff teams, including 4-2 in outdoor games. The weather in Buffalo on Sunday projects to be around freezing, with wind gusts north of 17 miles per hour. That could throw a wrench into the passing game for both teams, giving us one more reason to bank on a low scoring affair.

• Broncos vs Bills Picks: Under 47.5 (-110)