Now Favored, Could Tampa’s Dirk Koetter be the First NFL Coach Fired?

• Tampa Bay’s Dirk Koetter has seen his odds shorten to become one of the favorites to be the first NFL coach fired
• Koetter and Cleveland’s Hue Jackson are now co-favorites to be fired first
• Which other coaches offer the best value for this prop bet?

A popular game to play each year is betting on which NFL Head Coach will be fired first. Two coaches now sit tied atop the betting odds to receive that dubious honor.

When this prop was first posted a few months ago, Cleveland Browns’ head coach Hue Jackson was the number one choice to be the first coach canned. Now two games into the preseason schedule and Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ head man Dirk Koetter has seen his odds shorten to now have equal odds with Jackson. Both coaches are now co-“favorites” to get their marching orders first at +400.

But Koetter has seen the most action considering he opened at +1200.

A few factors could be playing into this, with the obvious one being the absence of starting quarterback Jameis Winston for Tampa Bay’s first three games. Winston was suspended for violating the league’s personal conduct policy.

Jameis Winston has been the NFL's highest graded quarterback so far this preseason. pic.twitter.com/KUWYpFmDI3

— PFF (@PFF) August 22, 2018

The Buc’s opening schedule was already hard enough with opening games against New Orleans, Philly and Pittsburgh, and will be made harder without Winston. Two road games in Chicago and Atlanta follow which won’t offer much relief. Based on opening projected wins, the Bucs will face the third-hardest overall schedule in 2018.

Based on opening projected wins, the Bucs will face the third-hardest overall schedule in 2018.

With Winston’s participation, the Bucs have looked strong in preseason with a 26-24 road win over Miami, followed up with a 30-14 win over Tennessee. Against the Titans, Winston was 13/18 for 226 yards and 2 TDs.

Video: From this morning, Bucs coach Dirk Koetter shrugs off a minor skirmish at the end of practice. “Big deal. I mean, it’s football.” pic.twitter.com/GlXq6o5EGz

— Greg Auman (@gregauman) August 14, 2018

But what about Jackson? The fact he has one win in two years and is still employed is mind boggling. I can’t think of many other professions where you could be so consistently poor and remain employed. The thing is, the Browns had a strong offseason, making key signings and draft picks all over the roster. Most pundits are predicting them to go over their season win total and it’s virtually impossible for them to be any worse.

A few wins, or maybe even a couple wins in the opening months, could be enough for Jackson to stay employed for the remainder of the year.

Don't sleep on the Browns this year? ¯_(ツ)_/¯ pic.twitter.com/GmHetfzlqV

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) August 23, 2018

It won’t be easy though, as Cleveland will face Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Oakland, Baltimore, and the LA Chargers in the opening six weeks. Could a Week 7 showdown with Koetter and the Bucs be the deciding factor in one man’s fate?

Koetter vs Jackson

The Rest of the Contenders

Let’s take a look at the full list of odds.

Cowboys owner Jerry Jones excited about Jason Garrett, says coach is not on hot seat https://t.co/dlZgdeRvJz pic.twitter.com/3lOfU4hQ7e

— Zesty NFL Cowboys (@zesty_cowboys) July 26, 2018

Best Bet

The early value is long gone from Koetter, but maybe the steam move is right. The vultures could be circling around Koetter after he and the Bucs took a step back last year. Things have also not fallen favorably for him in 2018 with a tough schedule and no Winston to start the year. Koetter +400.

The vultures could be circling around Koetter after he and the Bucs took a step back last year.

Back in May I discussed how I believed Jay Gruden offered the best value to be fired first. I’ll maintain that as a decent value bet as well for Jay Gruden at +1400. And finally, it may seem ridiculous, but from a pure value perspective would a long shot play on Bill Belichick at +10000 be the worst option? Controversy and drama were rampant in Foxborough last year, the Pats have lost several players and if by any chance they get off to a slow start, maybe owner Robert Kraft pulls the plug on The Hoodie.