Super Bowl 59 Predictions & Expert Picks for Chiefs vs Eagles
By Eric Rosales in NFL Football
Published:
- The Kansas City Chiefs are 1-point favorites vs the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl 59
- KC is seeking the first three-peat in the Super Bowl era
- Read below for the Super Bowl 59 prediction and expert picks for Chiefs vs Eagles
The big game is finally here, as the Kansas City Chiefs (17-2) meet the Philadelphia Eagles (17-3) in Super Bowl 59. It’s a rematch from Super Bowl 57, when KC snuck by the Eagles in an instant classic, 38-35. The Chiefs are title game regulars: 59 marks the fifth time in the last six seasons they’ve been in the Super Bowl, with three titles, seeking an unprecedented three-peat in the Super Bowl era. Action gets underway Sunday night at 6:30pm from the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans with FOX carrying the broadcast.
KC vs PHI Predictions and Expert Picks
- Chiefs ML (-115 at Caesars)
- Under 48.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
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Beyond their record regular-season record of 15-2, there isn’t really anything that stands out about the Chiefs. They ranked 15th in scoring this year, averaging 22.6 points per game. Patrick Mahomes failed to pass for 4,000 yards in a season for the first time since he became a starter, and his 26 TD passes were tied for the lowest of his career, when he played 14 games in 2009.
He didn’t have a rushing attack to lean on like Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen did: the Chiefs averaged just 105.3 yards per game on the ground, just outside the NFL’s bottom 10 in the regular season.
Yet, here they are, and despite Mahomes’ so-so numbers, his greatness combined with Andy Reid’s ability to conjure up the right play at the right time produces a season where it looks like KC’s house of cards is set to collapse, but never does.
The Chiefs do have a top-end defense, but it’s not a wrecking ball like what the Eagles bring to the table.
KC allowed the fourth-fewest points per game, looking up at the Philly in the top spot at 17.7 per contest. Again, under the brilliance of big-game planner Steve Spagnuolo, the Chiefs find a way to get the right big defensive play at just the right time to stay afloat.
Both sides of the ball will be tested in Super Bowl 59. The Eagles present the second-best rushing attack in the league with football’s best home-run hitter in Saquon Barkley. He’s ripped three 60+ yard TD runs over the last two games.
Barkley has been banging off monster runs throughout the playoffs, so much so the books had to lift his rushing line to an absurd 113.5 yards to at least give bettors a pause in punching the over on their ticket.
Spagnuolo’s top priority will be to contain that running game, and force Philly to lean on Jalen Hurts to throw the Eagles to a championship. After looking like an extreme game manager through the first two games of the playoffs, Hurts finally looked the part of a passable QB, throwing for 246 yards and a TD in the NFC title game.
Then again, it’s easy to throw the ball when you trail for all of 18 second in a blowout over the Commanders.
Mahomes Above All in Super Bowl 59
Can the Chiefs get the Eagles to play catch up?
Kansas City has an affliction to play perennially close games, and the playoffs were no different. Their largest lead throughout the postseason was 10 points, and their largest deficit was three. Dating back to Week 17 of the 2023 season, the Chiefs have won 17 consecutive one-possession games. Ideally, getting up by two scores would be nice, but even if Kansas City can’t play out in front, they’re just built to find a way to stay in every game.
They had yet to score more than 30 points in a game this season, yet there they were in the AFC title game hanging 32 on the Bills and beating them at their own high-scoring game.
Philly brings the top pass defense in the NFL to the table, allowing just 174.2 yards per contest in the regular season. However, the Eagles’ secondary has shown some holes in the playoffs. Matt Stafford threw for 300+ in the snow, while Jaden Daniels went for 255 yards (though some of that chunk was in catch up mode).
Philly will want to play ball control and pound the rock on the ground, which is fine for the Chiefs, so long as Barkley doesn’t break big hitters and scores. The Chiefs feel they can march right back.
We could see some major clock-eating possessions, which is why that Under is such a go-to bet. And because it’s the Chiefs, we have to assume it will be a close one. The betting rules are simplified, especially involving KC: until proven otherwise, don’t bet against Patrick Mahomes.
Chiefs vs Eagles Lines
Odds as of Feb 9 at Caesars. See SBD’s Caesars Sportsbook review and use this Caesars Sportsbook promo code to make a wager for Super Bowl 59.
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The KC vs PHI odds have the Eagles enter as slight 1-point underdogs, which gives them a 46.7% win probability. Both teams have minus odds on the moneyline, with the Chiefs the favorite at -115. The spread has stayed within 2.5 points since this matchup was set. The Chiefs’ largest line was -2.5, but that has closed to nearly a pick’em as we close in on kickoff. The NFL public betting trends are going the other way: 58% of the bets and 68% of the money is being laid on the Eagles, though that’s for a 1.5-point spread.
As for the total, early on you could have found this number touch 50 points, but it’s been on the decline leading up to kickoff, with the Over/Under mostly hovering at 48.5 points. The Under is the most decisive among all betting trends, with 82% of the bets and 78% of the money going that way in the Chiefs vs Eagles public betting splits.
Sports Writer & Editor
Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgeable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV's Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric's work has appeared in local and national publications alike.
