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Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins Public-Betting Splits for Thursday Night Football

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in NFL Football

Updated Sep 12, 2024 · 12:41 PM PDT

Who is the public siding with on TNF? See the latest Bills vs Dolphins betting splits ahead of kickoff tonight.
  • The Bills and Dolphins public-betting splits show large wagers on the Bills moneyline on Thursday Night Football
  • Buffalo has won three straight against Miami dating back to 2022
  • Below, see all the Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins public-betting splits and money percentages for Week 2 TNF

Two AFC East heavyweights meet on Thursday Night Football in Week 2 with top spot in the division on the line, at least for the time being. At 8:15 pm ET tonight at Hard Rock Stadium, the Buffalo Bills (1-0, 0-0 away, 0-1 ATS) visit the Miami Dolphins (1-0, 1-0 home, 0-1 ATS).

The Bills vs Dolphins public-betting splits for Thursday Night Football show the public hammering the Buffalo moneyline while also favoring the under.

Bills vs Dolphins Public-Betting Splits & Percentages

Team Spread ATS Handle% ATS Bet% Total Points O/U Handle% O/U Bet% Moneyline ML Handle% ML Bet%
Buffalo Bills +2.5 58% 68% 48.5 38% 72% +108 93% 18%
Miami Dolphins -2.5 42% 32% 48.5 62% 28% -136 7% 82%

Bills vs Dolphins NFL public betting splits as of 3:00 pm ET.

Josh Allen trying to escape a tackle
Miami Dolphins v Buffalo Bills NFL football game Jan 07, 2024, in Miami Gardens.

BUF vs MIA Moneyline Splits Show BIG Bets on the Bills

In my Bills vs Dolphins prediction, I took the Buffalo moneyline, which was as long as +120 earlier in the week, and it seems some deep-pocketed members of the public agree.

Despite getting only 18% of the moneyline wagers for Thursday Night Football, a ludicrous 93% of moneyline handle is on the BIlls to win straight-up. In other words, those 18% of bets on Buffalo dwarf, in terms of monetary value, the 82% of tickets that are on Miami to win.

At the moment, this is the only Week 2 game where the team getting the majority of the moneyline handle isn’t also getting the majority of the moneyline tickets.

See All the Daily Odds Boosts & Profit Boosts Offered at Each Sportsbook
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Bills vs Dolphins Game Total Splits Heavily Skew to the Under

A similar dynamic is at play when it comes to the game total, though to a much lesser degree. Only 28% of tickets are currently on the under (48.5) but 62% of the over/under handle has been wagered on under 48.5.

My colleague Ian Jones’ Buffalo vs Miami same-game parlay is banking on the under hitting, and he explained why the NFL over under trends support that pick.

Under plays are also part of the Bills vs Dolphins player props tonight, with the under on Tyreek Hill’s receiving-yards of 96.5 among Eric Rosales’ best bets for TNF, despite the speedster’s 80-yard TD last week.

Public Slightly Leaning Towards Miami in Bills vs Dolphins ATS Splits

The Bills vs Dolphins ATS splits are where we see the most division among the public. The public has a slight lean to Buffalo +2.5 with 58% of the handle and 68% of the tickets on the Bills to cover, which leaves 42% of handle and 32% of bets on Miami -2.5.

Note, though, that this line has moved a full point from the opening Week 2 NFL odds, when Miami was just a 1.5-point home favorite. So that’s a good indication that, back when the line was at 1.5, either large sums of money or bets from respected players came in on the Dolphins, motivating the odds movement in the interim.

 

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