Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets Picks, Predictions and Odds for MNF (Oct. 14)

• Buffalo is a two-point favorite in the Bills vs Jets odds for Monday Night Football
• Both teams are coming off back-to-back losses
• See below for the Bills vs Jets picks, predictions and odds

It won’t take long to find out if Robert Saleh really was the problem in New York. The Jets fired Saleh following their second straight loss, and will look to get back on track when they host the Bills on Monday Night Football tonight. Online sportsbooks are siding against New York in the latest NFL odds, although sharp bettors seem to disagree.

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets Odds

Buffalo is currently favored by 2-points, in a contest with a total of 40.5. The Bills opened up at -2.5, but sharp money pushed that number down throughout the week. As of Sunday night, a greater percentage of the spread tickets are on Buffalo (64%), but more money has been on the Jets (51%) per the NFL public betting trends. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 pm ET at MetLife Stadium, in East Rutherford, New Jersey, with ESPN and ABC providing the coverage. Odds as of October 13 at BetMGM. Be sure to check out the best BetMGM promo code before placing a bet on Monday Night Football.

Bills vs Jets Injury Report

As disappointing as New York’s season has been, a win on MNF would move them into first place in the AFC East. Aaron Rodgers has not been the offensive savior the Jets had been hoping for, and now he’s dealing with multiple injuries. Rodgers has lingering ankle, knee and hamstring issues, and was limited in practice for most of the week. He managed to get a full practice in on Saturday however, and is good to go against the Bills.

On the Buffalo side, James Cook (toe) is questionable but plans to play. The status of number one receiver Khalil Shakir is a little less certain, as he’s questionable with an ankle injury. Stud defensive tackle Ed Oliver (hamstring) will sit for a second straight game, which is a major blow to the Bills pass rush.

Jets Change Direction on Offense

Not only was Saleh relieved of his job, but New York also demoted offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Rodgers’ good buddy will no longer call the Jets plays, as those responsibilities now fall on Todd Downing.

New York enters play averaging a pathetic 18.6 points per game. Not exactly what you’d expect from a top-10 preseason contender in the Super Bowl odds. Rodgers has completed less than 60% of his passes in back-to-back outings, at one point last week threw the ball on 19 consecutive plays. Downing was the Jets run game coordinator, and expectations are he’s going to deploy a run heavy scheme.

The Jets watched Aaron Rodgers throw these passes and said "yeah Saleh gotta go" pic.twitter.com/gxyO3N1WT7

— NFL Memes (@NFL_Memes) October 8, 2024

That’s good news for running back Breece Hall, who’s been one of fantasy football’s biggest busts. Hall’s averaging just 39 rushing yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry, but Monday’s matchup presents a bounce back opportunity.

The Bills were eviscerated on the ground by Baltimore two weeks ago, and are a bottom-seven rush defense per Pro Football Focus. They’re undersized and undermanned, as Von Miller (suspension) and Matt Milano (IR) are also out. Buffalo is also a bottom-seven coverage unit, which should help Rodgers improve on his career-low 48.6 QBR when he does drop back to throw.

Allen Looks to Shake Off Struggles

Rodgers isn’t the only QB in this contest that’s struggling. Josh Allen has been abysmal in Buffalo’s back-to-back losses, completing only 42% of his throws. Last week versus Houston, he was 9-of-30 for only 131 yards, marking one of his worst performances ever.

Allen enters play as PFF’s 30th graded passer, and has a rocky history against the Jets. No team has sacked Allen or picked him off more often than the Jets, and his 81.1 passer rating is by far his lowest against any AFC East team.

Josh Allen Passing Stats Last Two Games

Buffalo’s pass blocking has been middling all season, and Allen has struggled under pressure. He’s completing only 36% of his throws under duress, and the heat will likely be on all night versus New York. The Jets generate pressure at a top-six rate, and had the fourth most sacks through five weeks.

Bills vs Jets Prediction

Who can forget what happened the last time these rivals met on Monday Night Football. Allen and the Bills fell to the Zach Wilson led Jets, after Rodgers tore his Achilles. Buffalo couldn’t muster any offense in that matchup, and the way they’re trending an encore performance might be on deck.

As bad as Allen and the Bills offense has been, things can get worse. Allen has committed six turnover worthy plays in the last two weeks, yet has only given the ball away once. Regression could be coming. Throw in injuries to Buffalo’s two best skill position players, and the Bills will be playing either hobbled or shorthanded.

On the other side, New York should find plenty of success on offense for a change. Buffalo is without arguably its three best defenders, and hasn’t shown the ability to get stops in recent weeks.

Bills vs Jets Pick: New York Jets +2 (-110) at BetMGM