Broncos vs Chargers Odds & Picks for Thursday Night Football (Week 16)

• A massive game in the AFC playoff race takes place on TNF as the Denver Broncos visit the Los Angeles Chargers
• The Broncos would clinch their first postseason berth since 2015 with a victory
• See the Broncos vs Chargers odds and picks for Thursday Night Football (Dec. 19)

The Denver Broncos (9-5, 4-3 away, ATS) have already done something they haven’t in seven seasons – guarantee themselves a winning record – and on Thursday night, Sean Payton’s team can do something it hasn’t done since a year prior: book a ticket to the playoffs. Standing in their way will be the team that currently sits in the third and final AFC Wild Card, the Los Angeles Chargers (8-6, 4-3 home, ATS). As usual, kickoff for Thursday Night Football is set for 8:15 pm ET. Prime Video will carry the broadcast.

Broncos vs Chargers Odds

Despite an ugly 40-17 loss at home to the Buccaneers last Sunday, their second loss in as many weeks, the Chargers have been set as three-point favorites against the surging Broncos, who have won four straight. The Chargers are also -150 favorites on the moneyline with Denver coming back as +130 road underdogs. The game total is sitting at 42.5 with the under slightly favored at -115.

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Neither team is likely to miss the postseason regardless of what happens on Thursday. The three teams chasing LAC for the final Wild Card are all two games back at 6-8 (Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Miami). Denver needs just one victory in its final three games to book a ticket while the Chargers are likely to get in with one more victory and get to face the 3-11 Patriots and 2-12 Raiders in their final two games of the season. Both teams enter Week 16 as massive -1100 favorites to reach the postseason in the latest NFL playoff odds. (Bookmaker SBD’s NFL playoff bracket to see the up-to-date postseason field.)

Chargers Offense Struggling

At no point this season has Los Angeles been among the league’s elite offenses – save for one week against a Cincinnati defense that makes everyone look like the Greatest Show on Turf – but the last three weeks have seen a marked decline for Justin Herbert and company. The Chargers have been held to just 17 points in three straight games. Herbert is averaging just 185 passing yards per game in that span with a 91.7 passer rating, well below his season average of 97.5.

Getting held to 17 points in a road game against the Kansas City Chiefs is understandable. But a 17-13 win on the Falcons’ fast track at Mercedes Benz Stadium and last week’s 40-17 home defeat to the Bucs are less so. Both Atlanta (24.4 PPG) and Tampa Bay (23.2 PPG) are in the bottom half of the league in scoring defense.

Broncos Defense Is Elite

While rookie QB gets a lot of (mostly deserved) plaudits for the Broncos’ surge up the standings this season, the defense has been the real MVP of the team. Denver’s defense has held opponents to an NFL -best 247 points this season (17.6 PPG, tied with Pittsburgh) and rates as the third best D overall at PFF.

The unit has been excellent over the last five games, holding four of their opponents under 20 points, including the Chiefs (16-14 road loss), Falcons (38-6 home win), and Colts (31-13 home win).

Bo Nix throws the ball to nobody and gets intercepted, what was the thought here? pic.twitter.com/kDq1HdwDs1

— SM Highlights (@SMHighlights1) December 15, 2024

The major area of concern for Broncos fans heading into Week 16 is how losse Nix has gotten with the ball. The rookie threw three picks against the Colts last week and two against the Browns the week prior, which ended a run of three straight games without an interception for the 24-year-old.

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers Picks

Denver has looked like the better overall team than the Chargers over the course of the season, and the analytics bear that out. The Broncos have nearly doubled LAC in point differential (+89 vs +47) and have a considerably better DVOA rating: Denver is 10th in the NFL at +17.1% while LA is 13th at +9.4%.

Yes, the Chargers have home-field advantage, but that’s never been much of a boon for LAC. Since moving to SoFi Stadium in the 2020 season, the Chargers are just 20-21 at home (and 39-42 overall).

I am moving the line up half a point to get the Broncos plus a hook. The way LAC’s offense is playing, I can’t stomach betting them to win by more than a field goal, if I could stomach betting them to beat a quality opponent at all. This could be a very long night for Herbert and the Charger offense against the league’s top pass rush (49 sacks).

• DEN vs LAC pick: Broncos +3.5 (-145) at ESPN Bet