Tom Brady the Favorite to Lead NFL in Passing Yards in 2018

We are officially two months (62 days) from kickoff of the 2018 NFL regular season, when the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles will host the Atlanta Falcons on September 6th at 8:20pm EST.

Though many sportsbooks already have lines available for certain Week 1 matchups, it still seems a little premature. Not to worry, we’ve stumbled upon some more NFL offseason betting opportunities to scratch that itch.

There are newly released odds to lead the NFL in passing yards, rushing yards, and receiving yards in 2018. We’ll be covering the QBs here, with the other two coming shortly.

Based on the odds, here are the top five candidates to lead the league in passing yards this season:

There’s no real surprises in the top five. Tom Brady led the league in passing last year, at 40 years old, with 4,577 yards, and has shown no signs of aging. So why wouldn’t he be the favorite entering his age 41 season?

Kirk Cousins shows up as the final QB on the list, but his +1200 odds are equal to Matthew Stafford and Philip Rivers.

Odds to Lead the NFL in Passing Yards in 2018

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uxolo-R57mA

But before you go start hunting for value here, there are a couple trends you should certainly consider:

NFL Leader in Passing Yards Trends

• No rookie has led the NFL in passing yards since Davey O’Brien in 1939
• In the Super Bowl era, only one second-year player has led the league in passing (Dan Marino in 1984)
• In the last seven years, only four different QBs have led the league in passing: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger (shared it with Brees in 2014), and Peyton Manning
• In the last 13 years, only six different QBs have led the league in passing: the four from above, Philip Rivers, and Matt Schaub
• Drew Brees has led the league in passing an NFL-high seven times

*Manning set the all-time record for passing yards in a single season, breaking Brees’ record set two years prior by one yard

Who’s the Best Bet to Lead the NFL in Passing in 2018?

Eliminate all rookies from the discussion, as none of them are projected to start Week 1. You can also forget about all the pivots playing in front of one of the first-round QBs selected in the 2018 NFL Draft. Joe Flacco is the only one who may avoid taking a seat on the bench this season in favor of his successor, but wagering Flacco, who threw for a pitiful 3,141 yards in 2017, would be a waste.

AMAZING STAT: The #Saints got more yards per Alvin Kamara rush (6.07) than the #Ravens did from every Flacco pass last year

— Matt Williamson (@WilliamsonNFL) March 7, 2018

Looking to the favorites, I’d cross off a handful of pivots off who quarterback offenses whose rushing attack is too strong to abandon it. The players included here are: Ben Roethlisberger (+800), Matt Ryan (+1500), Drew Brees (+500), and Kirk Cousins (+1200). Brees and the Saints saw what a strong ground game can do for them last year, and even though the Vikings paid Cousins all that money this offseason, Mike Zimmer won’t allow his team to become extremely one-dimensional.

And even though Matthew Stafford (+1200) has not had the help of a ground game in years, new head coach Matt Patricia is gearing up for the Lions to run the ball. So forget him.

I’d also go ahead and drop Jimmy Garoppolo (+1600) and Deshaun Watson (+1600) from consideration, too. The rest of the league has a little more tape on both now, and they also reside in divisions with pretty strong pass defenses – namely the Rams and Jaguars.

How do the 2017 @Jaguars stack up among the greatest defenses in NFL history?

– Fewer PPG allowed than 2015 Broncos

– Fewer pass YPG allowed than 2013 Seahawks

– More sacks than 2002 Buccaneers

– Better 3rd down defense than 2000 Ravens

– More defensive TD than 1985 Bears pic.twitter.com/RcL6M0lGvA

— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) January 19, 2018

This leaves us with three of the top contenders: Tom Brady (+330), Aaron Rodgers (+650), and Philip Rivers (+1200). Brady presents such little value for a QB who will be 41 years old. Rivers would have been a good bet before Hunter Henry was lost for the season, but now he’s one false Keenan Allen step away from relying on Mike Williams as his go-to receiver.

Aaron Rodgers (+650), on the other hand, has that feel of a man with something to prove. He’s never led the league in passing before, and after missing nine games due to injury last season, I feel he’s going to come out firing in 2018. No Jordy Nelson seems problematic, but Rodgers will turn Jimmy Graham back into the dominant tight end he was in New Orleans. The Packers’ signal-caller is my pick to lead the league in passing in 2018.

If you’re looking for a real darkhorse, though, I’m big on Andrew Luck at +2500. I don’t expect the Colts to be good this season, and expect them to be playing from behind often. Before his shoulder became an issue in 2015, Luck threw for 4,761 yards in 2014. He certainly has the talent, and the longer odds due to health concerns make him worth a wager.