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19
Sep
8:15 PM
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22
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44.5

Bills vs Dolphins Predictions, Picks & Best Odds for Thursday Night Football (Week 2)

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in NFL Football

Updated Sep 11, 2024 · 8:12 PM PDT

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa throwing a pass against the Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) in action against the Buffalo Bills NFL football game Jan 07, 2024, in Miami Gardens.
  • AFC East rivals meet on TNF as the Buffalo Bills visit the Miami Dolphins on Sep. 12
  • The Bills took both games last year by a combined score of 69-27, but Miami is favored on Thursday
  • See the Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins predictions, picks, and best odds for the Week 2 edition of Thursday Night Football

First place in the AFC East will be on the line tomorrow when the Buffalo Bills (1-0, 0-0 away, 0-1 ATS) and Miami Dolphins (1-0, 1-0 home, 0-1 ATS) meet on Thursday Night Football at Hard Rock Stadium at 8:15 pm ET. Both picked up come-from-behind victories in the season-openers but neither managed to cover the spread as home favorites.

The Week 2 Bills vs Dolphins odds opened at Miami -1.5 but all books have now moved the line a full point in favor of the home team while the game total has come down two full points at most books, from 50.5 to 48.5.

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins Predictions

  • Bills moneyline (+120) at FanDuel
  • Over 48.5 (-112) at DraftKings
  • Sascha Paruk’s 2024 NFL betting record: 4-3 (+0.64 units)
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Both Buffalo and Miami were less than convincing in Week 1. The Bills needed to come back from an early 17-3 deficit as 6.5-point home favorites against the Arizona Cardinals. Both the offense and the defense buckled down at that point, though. Buffalo went on a 28-3 run to take a 31-20 lead it would not surrender during a 34-28 victory.

In his first game since Stefon Diggs was traded to Houston, Josh Allen looked more than comfortable with his new-look receiving corps. Allen went 18/23 for 232 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. Nine different players caught passes, led by Keon Coleman with four catches for 51 yards.

Miami, similarly, rallied from a 17-7 first-half deficit from against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Phins’ defense pitched a second-half shutout while recently-detained Tyreek Hill scored an electric 80-yard touchdown.

Unfortunately for the Dolphins, they came out of Week 1 more banged up than most teams. Starting running back Raheem Mostert is out with a chest injury while backup De’Von Achane is questionable with a leg injury. The two combined for 119 total yards and a TD in Week 1. Mostert finished last season with 1,012 yards and 18 touchdowns on the ground.

The Dolphins were also outclassed twice by Buffalo last season. The Bills dominated a 48-20 decision in Buffalo in Week 4 before earning a 21-14 victory in Miami in Week 18. The final score of that regular-season finale flattered Miami; Buffalo piled up 473 yards to Miami’s 275 while holding possession for 38:07 minutes to 21:53 the Dolphins.

While there are new/different faces on both sides, I don’t expect a terribly different result this time around. The Bills have Miami’s number and I love the value on Buffalo at +120 on the moneyline, especially on a short week with Miami banged up.

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Best Bills vs Dolphins Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Buffalo Bills +2.5 (-105) at FanDuel +120 at FanDuel Over 48.5 (-112) at DraftKings
Miami Dolphins -2.5 (-110) at Caesars -135 at bet365 Under 49.0 (-110) at BetMGM

As mentioned, the opening Week 2 NFL odds listed the spread at just Miami -1.5 but early money has come in on the Phins, pushing it up a full point to Miami -2.5. The number is the same at every book, though there is some slight variation in the price: FanDuel has the best odds on Buffalo to cover at -105 while Caesars, Bet365, and BetMGM all have Miami -2.5 at -110.

The best moneyline on the Bills is also at FanDuel, where Buffalo is +120 to win straight-up. The best odds on a Miami win are -135 at bet365 and DraftKings.

There is more variation in the game total. After opening at 50.5, it’s come down as low as 48.5 at FanDuel and DraftKings, but only to 49.0 at bet365, BetMGM, and Caesars.

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