Bills vs Rams Best Bets, Splits & Odds for MNF
By Chris Amberley in NFL News
Published:
- The Bills travel to LA to face the Rams on Monday Night Football in Week 5
- Both offenses march up and down the field at will, setting the stage for an explosive shootout
- Keep reading for the Bills vs Rams best bets, splits and odds for MNF, below
Week 5 concludes with a high-voltage primetime clash under the lights at SoFi Stadium as Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 O/U) host Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 3-1 O/U) on Monday Night Football.
Buffalo enters looking to rebound from a Week 4 divisional hiccup against New England, powered by an offense that ranks among the league’s most explosive (averaging 31.8 PPG). The Rams head into Monday fresh off a resilient 24-20 victory over Philadelphia, with Stafford continuing to build chemistry alongside elite perimeter targets Davante Adams and Puka Nacua.
With Buffalo’s high-octane attack pushing totals Over in three of four contests, this interconference showdown promises ample fireworks. Keep reading for the Bills vs Rams best bets, splits and odds for MNF, below.
Bills vs Rams Best Bets
ATS Pick: Buffalo Bills +3.5 (-113 / 53¢ at Kalshi)
Despite the Rams generating an impressive 417 total yards of offense per game, their chronic inability to finish drives and protect the football remains a glaring issue.
Los Angeles enters Monday saddled with a league-lagging -5 turnover differential (8 giveaways to just 3 takeaways) and converts just 53.3% of its red zone trips into touchdowns. Conversely, Buffalo’s offense operates with surgical efficiency in scoring territory, converting 68.8% of its red zone opportunities into touchdowns to fuel 31.8 points per game.
NFL MVP odds favorite Josh Allen also faces a Rams defense that struggles to generate negative plays, giving Buffalo a decided edge in high-leverage situations. With Sean McDermott’s squad covering in three of four outings this season (3-1 ATS) while the Rams sit at 2-2 ATS, catching more than a field goal in the NFL odds with the more disciplined team offers tremendous value.
Kalshi offers Buffalo +3.5 (buying “No” on Los Angeles winning by over 3.5 points) at 53 cents, providing a significantly better payout than the -118 juice at traditional sportsbooks. Grab the Kalshi promo code to tail this wager.
Bills vs Rams Stats
Game-Total Pick: Over 54.5 Points (+104 / 49% at Novig)
With two explosive, Super Bowl 61 odds contenders taking the field under pristine dome conditions at SoFi Stadium, backing the Over presents the most logical path.
The Rams rank among the NFL’s elite aerial attacks with 290.2 passing yards per game, moving the ball effortlessly between the 20-yard lines behind Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, and Davante Adams. On the other side, Buffalo’s high-octane attack has already piled up 127 total points (31.8 PPG) through four weeks, while their secondary surrenders 256.2 passing yards per game and their games average 58.5 total combined points.
Buffalo has eclipsed the total in three of four contests this season, and the Rams have pushed totals Over in consecutive games (averaging 50.0 combined points across Weeks 3 and 4). A fast-paced shootout appears highly likely despite the lofty 54.5-point total.
Buying Over 54.5 points at Novig at 49% yields a superior return (equal to +104 odds) compared to laying -108 juice at a standard bookmaker. New users can sign up with the Novig promo code and get a bonus to use on this game.
Best Player Prop Bet: Kyren Williams 70+ Rush Yards (+113 / 47¢ at Kalshi)
Buffalo officially ruled out premier defensive tackle Ed Oliver with a knee injury, creating a massive void along the interior defensive front that Sean McVay will actively look to exploit.
Williams has been the engine of the Rams’ ground attack, clearing this 69.5-yard threshold in three consecutive games with performances of 85 yards against the Giants, 88 against Denver, and 80 against Philadelphia while averaging 5.5 yards per carry over that span.
He now faces a Bills defense that has proven vulnerable against physical rushing attacks, surrendering 131 rushing yards to the Chargers and 143 to New England in back-to-back weeks (allowing 116 rushing yards per game overall). With Williams guaranteed 15-plus carries and commanding consistent red zone touches, backing his rushing over against a compromised Buffalo defensive interior provides outstanding value.
Buffalo vs Los Angeles Splits
- Spread: 69.44% of the money backs the Buffalo Bills, while 30.56% takes the Los Angeles Rams.
- Moneyline: 52.37% of the money supports the Los Angeles Rams, leaving 47.63% on the Buffalo Bills.
- Total: 74.07% of the money takes the Over, compared to 25.93% on the Under.
The betting handle perfectly aligns with the recommended plays. Strong financial backing for Buffalo to cover the spread shows confidence in the underdog keeping the game close. The prediction for a high-scoring affair also draws heavy support, with a massive 74.07% of the total money backing the Over per the NFL public betting splits. The moneyline market remains highly contested, leaning slightly toward the home favorite.
BUF vs LAR Odds
Odds as of October 11 at BetMGM. Claim your BetMGM promo code now.
Los Angeles lands as a 3.5-point favorite at home, with the over/under for total points set at a high 54.5. On the moneyline, the Rams sit at -182, while the visiting Bills come in as +150 underdogs. When removing the sportsbook’s vig to calculate normalized probabilities, the Rams hold a 61.74% chance of winning the game outright. This leaves the Bills with a 38.26% implied probability of pulling off the road upset.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
