Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs Predictions, Picks & Best Odds for TNF (Sep. 5)
- Two-time defending Super Bowl-champion Kansas City opens the 2024 season at home against Baltimore on Thursday Night Football
- The Chiefs bet the Ravens 17-10 in last year’s AFC Championship Game, their only meeting in the last two seasons
- Below, see the Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs predictions and picks. plus the best odds for the spread, moneyline, and total
The 2024 NFL regular season starts with a heavyweight clash as the two-time defending Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs (16-6, 6-4 home, 13-7-1 ATS last season including playoffs), host the Baltimore Ravens (14-5, 7-4 home, 12-7 ATS) at Arrowhead Stadium on Thursday Night Football in Week 1 (8:25 pm ET).
Despite a mediocre regular season last year, when they were just 5-4 straight-up at home, the Chiefs are listed as three-point home favorites in the Week 1 NFL odds, while the game total is either 46 or 46.5 depending on the sportsbook.
Below, find my two favorite Ravens vs Chiefs picks for TNF, followed by the best odds for the first TNF matchup of the 2024 season.
Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs Predictions
- Ravens +3 (-115) at BetMGM
- Under 46.5 (-110) at FanDuel
The Chiefs did their best to keep the key pieces of their dynasty intact in the offseason, re-signing both Travis Kelce and Chris Jones. The departure of Le’Jarius Snead in the secondary will be felt, but for the most part, the ’24 Chiefs look very similar to the ’23 iteration that won a second straight Lombardi Trophy. The main addition was wide receiver Marquise Brown. “Hollywood” is currently out with a shoulder injury, though. So, in Week 1, the biggest addition to the uninspired WR group that Patrick Mahomes somehow led to a championship last season will be rookie Xavier Worthy, the #28-overall pick out of Texas.
On the other side, the Ravens feature one massive change: longtime Tennessee Titan and former 2,000-yard rusher Derrick Henry replaces Gus Edwards as the RB1. Henry is coming off arguably his worst season in half a decade. The standard for Henry is, of course, lofty, and he still rushed for just over 1,100 yards and 12 touchdowns at a respectable 4.2 YPC.
On paper, the biggest issue for Baltimore heading into the season is the offensive line, which ranks 25th in the NFL according to PFF. The team lost a trio of starters (John Simpson, Kevin Zeitler, and Morgan Moses) and their only additions to the O-line were through the draft. But Henry ran behind progressively-worse offensive lines in Tennessee and still managed to remain the best RB in the league, while the footspeed of Lamar Jackson under center will help mitigate the opposing pass rush, as long as he’s learned from his mistakes in last year’s AFC Championship Game.
Lamar Jackson vs. Kansas City's big blitzes (6+ pass rushers) in the AFC championship game:
1-for-6, 13 yards, 1 sack, -0.76 EPA/drop-back
Defenses want to heat up Jackson. The Ravens' Super Bowl hopes could rest on how they punish it.
📽️ Film study: https://t.co/aMVEw2JTkW pic.twitter.com/K67XW8CzUX
— Jonas Shaffer (@jonas_shaffer) September 2, 2024
All in all, the Ravens are still the regular-season power they were last season, when they won a league-best 13 games, while also posting a league-best +203 point differential. They start the season as the third-favorite in the Super Bowl odds. Yes, the Chiefs managed to eke out a 17-10 road win at Baltimore in last year’s AFC title game, but if the Ravens don’t commit the only three turnovers (and/or take eight penalties for 85 yards compared to just three for 30 for KC), it’s Baltimore that’s playing for the Lombardi Trophy.
I’m also expecting a much higher-scoring game than the 17-10 postseason slugfest last time these teams met. The Ravens averaged 24.5 PPG in their seven true-road games last year, and that number isn’t likely to go down with Henry bolstering an already-excellent ground attack.
Best Ravens vs Chiefs Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | +3 (-115) at BetMGM | +130 at DraftKings | Over 46.0 (-110) at Caesars |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -3 (-100) at Caesars | -150 at bet365 | Under 46.5 (-110) at FanDuel |
The spread is Chiefs -3 across the board with only slight variations in price. The best odds on the Ravens to cover as field-goal underdogs is currently -115 at BetMGM. The best price on Kansas City to cover the spread is even-money at Caesars and bet365.
The best Chiefs moneyline is -150 at both bet365 and BetMGM while the longest odds for a straight-up Ravens victory is +130 at DraftKings.
There is more variety in the game total. Both DraftKings and FanDuel have the O/U at 46.5 with FanDuel offering a slightly better price (-110 vs -112). BetMGM, bet365, and Caesars list it at 46.0 at -110 odds.
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Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
