NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets for Week 1: Predictions for TD Props

• The most popular NFL prop to bet is without a doubt touchdown scorer props
• We have touchdown scorer odds available for every game of Week 1
• See which players I am betting to score a touchdown in Week 1 of 2024-25 NFL season

If you ask any sportsbook what their most popular NFL prop is, each of them will tell you it’s touchdown scorer props. Whether it be anytime touchdowns or first TD scorers, the public loves betting on touchdowns. But one of the problems with the NFL TD market right now is that so few sportsbooks offer both sides of the bet – either over and under 0.5 or yes and no to scoring a TD. ESPN Bet offered two sides on their TD props last year, but it appears they have dropped that this season. DraftKings has stepped up to the plate this season and will allow it, but they appear to be the only ones.

The result of this is sportsbooks not being held responsible for setting odds too short – because we can’t make them pay by betting the other side. So, properly handicapping NFL touchdown markets just becomes even more important, and that’s why I’m writing this today! Whether you’re looking for inspiration, confirmation, or just some simple bets to tail, these are my favorite NFL touchdown scorer props to bet for Week 1 of the 2024-25 NFL season.

Best NFL TD Scorer Picks for Week 1

In total, I am placing nine anytime touchdown bets for Week 1 and putting a half-unit on each. I have included the best odds I could find for each player above, along with the sportsbook where I found those odds.

If you’re looking for any other props to bet for this weekend, I covered some alternate prop lines I liked in my early NFL player props for Week 1. Knowing some of those lines have now changed, though, I would recommend you use our NFL props page to check out the latest lines for each player and allow it to do your line shopping for you!

But you can also read on below to hear my reasoning for why each of the nine players above are good bets to score a touchdown in Week 1.

Derrick Henry

I bet this back when lines first opened, but we have seen DraftKings (along with most other sportsbooks) move King Henry to -140. He was still available at -115 odds to score a touchdown at ESPN Bet at the time of writing this. (I hope that holds for you!)

This one was pretty easy for me. Henry has scored 93 touchdowns in 119 NFL games. He’s a touchdown monster in the red zone, but I also think he still has enough juice in those 30-year-old legs to break off some long ones too. The former Titan joins the #1 rushing offense from last season in the Ravens, who have been in need of a back who can carry the load for a few years now.

At @DKSportsbook, Derrick Henry is the most bet on:

– First TD Scorer (+600)
– Anytime TD Scorer (+100)
– Player to score 2+ TDs (+475) pic.twitter.com/th4dQx60AN

— SportsBettingDime (@SBD) September 5, 2024

Over Baltimore’s final 11 games of the 2023-24 regular season, Gus Edwards scored 12 touchdowns and had at least one touchdown in eight of those 11 games. In the three games where he did not score, he played 33% or less of the offensive snaps.

I think we’ll see Henry out there often in the Ravens backfield and the team will be thrilled to not have to lean on Lamar Jackson’s legs so much in the run game, especially early in the season. I also just don’t see how you go and sign Derrick Henry in the offseason and then don’t ride him, especially in the red zone.

• Pick: Derrick Henry Anytime TD (-115 at ESPN Bet)

Saquon Barkley

The Eagles were not as efficient running the ball last season as they were the year prior, dropping from an average of 4.6 yards per carry to 4.3. (Though, some of that may be the result of all the Tush Pushes we saw last year.) Philadelphia’s answer this offseason was to bring in long-time rival Saquon Barkley from the Giants.

They also brought in Kellen Moore, whose offenses have ranked 1st, 14th, 1st, 11th, and 18th (Chargers last year), to take over their offensive coordinator duties. Though Moore tends to be a little more pass-happy, he does mix in the run, and if they’re moving the ball consistently, there will be plenty of snaps for the offense.

All that is to say, I expect Saquon Barkley to be a big part of Philadelphia’s offense, particularly in the red zone. I do appreciate Jalen Hurts being a red zone TD vulture, but I’m expecting the Eagles to be in goal-to-go situations often in this one. With Green Bay’s defense ranking 23rd in YPC allowed, I figured we’d see Barkley around -120 to find the endzone on Friday night.

• Pick: Saquon Barkley Anytime TD (-105 at BetMGM)

Christian Watson

I’ll keep this one quick because I discussed Watson quite a bit in my early player props article, which you can find the link to above. As I just said with the Saquon pick, I expect the Eagles to score a fair amount on Friday. If I’m right, that will force Green Bay into throwing a little more than they may want to.

I also think that passing often may be a part of Matt LaFleur’s plan anyways, as the Eagles ranked 31st against the pass last season. When healthy, I believe Watson is the guy LaFleur and Jordan Love want to target in the passing game. Watson scored five touchdowns in nine regular season games last season, which included scoring four in his final three games of the regular season. I think +210 odds are way too long here.

• Pick: Christian Watson Anytime TD (+210 at FanDuel)

Dalton Kincaid

The Cardinals gave up the third-most passing touchdowns in the league last season, and were tied for the second-most touchdowns allowed to tight ends. This comes in spite of Seattle and the LA Rams not really featuring a tight end in their offense.

I believe Dalton Kincaid is going to enter this season as Josh Allen’s most trusted pass-catcher. The tight end saw the second-most targets on the team with 91, but there are 160 targets that left the building with Stefon Diggs being traded to the Texans.

This ROUTE by Dalton Kincaid 😳

Kincaid’s route running ability is reportedly “elite” according to Dawson Knox (Bills TE).

Kincaid reportedly through four practices looks like he’ll play a “big role” in the Bills offense this season.

Ken Dorsey (Bills OC) said that Kincaid has… pic.twitter.com/7dKSPOo5iZ

— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) July 31, 2023

While I do think Keon Coleman will eventually be the guy in Buffalo, especially in the red zone, I’m not sure he’ll be ready for that right out of the gate. I’m also not sold Khalil Shakir will ever see WR1 targets. I like a good chunk of those early targets to Kincaid, and think he scores one of the many TDs I expect Buffalo to put up.

• Pick: Dalton Kincaid Anytime TD (+170 at DraftKings)

De’Von Achane

Yes, I know Mike McDaniel has said he would like to get all running backs involved and then ride the hot hand for that game. But I like De’Von Achane to be that hot hand in more games than not.

As a rookie, he averaged 7.8(!) yards per carry, while Raheem Mostert was next best among RBs with more than nine carries with an average of 4.8 YPC, and he also led the trio of RBs in yards per reception with 7.3. Achane found the endzone 11 times in 11 games last year. Keeping this playmaker off the field would be dumb, and I think McDaniel is quite bright.

Add in the total for the game being set at 49, which is tied for the second-highest in Week 1, and I don’t see how Achane doesn’t account for at least one of Miami’s touchdowns.

• Pick: DeVon Achane Anytime TD (+120 at DraftKings)

Jonathan Taylor

I think we’re setting up for another 2021-like year out of Jonathan Taylor, when he rushed for 1,811 yards and scored 20 touchdowns. I am constantly praising Shane Steichen on this site, and am happy to do it again. I think his system is going to be great for Taylor, and having Anthony Richardson’s insane athleticism at QB is going to prevent linebackers from overcommitting to Taylor.

Though the Texans were very good against the run last year, only allowing 3.5 yards per carry, they did allow the sixth-most rushing touchdowns in the NFL. I love Taylor to find the endzone at least once in this game, and likely never sees plus-odds to score a touchdown the rest of the season. I’m taking advantage while it’s here.

• Pick: Jonathan Taylor Anytime TD (+100 at BetMGM)

Javonte Williams

Javonte Williams only scored five touchdowns in 16 games last season, but the Broncos offense was awful with Russell Wilson under center and Williams was also in his first season back after a season-ending knee injury in October of 2022.

I think we see a little more burst out of Williams this season, as we did in 2021 when he averaged 4.4 YPC. I also think we see a much more effective Broncos offense with Bo Nix under center.

Williams has a great opportunity to get his season started on the right foot when he takes on the Seahawks, who ranked 31st against the run last season and allowed the third-most rushing TDs. While I do think we see Jaleel McLaughlin carve out a nice role for himself in the Broncos offense, I like Javonte to remain the hammer in the red zone.

• Pick: Javonte Williams Anytime TD (+230 at FanDuel)

Sam LaPorta

As a rookie, Sam LaPorta saw 120 targets in the regular season, which was second to Amon-Ra St Brown, and added another 27 targets in Detroit’s three playoff games. LaPorta matched ARSB in terms of receiving touchdowns, though, with ten.

When LaPorta played the Rams, his Week 1 matchup, in the playoffs last year, he was held to three catches for 14 yards, but one of those catches was for a touchdown. I feel LaPorta’s lack of involvement was more on Detroit than it was the Rams doing a really great job covering him. Over the regular season, the Rams gave up the sixth-most receiving yards to TEs and tied for the second-most touchdowns allowed to the position.

I like LaPorta to see some heavy targets in a game where I expect to see plenty of points scored.

• Pick: Sam LaPorta Anytime TD (+145 at FanDuel)

Garrett Wilson

As long as Aaron Rodgers plays more than three snaps (preferably a lot more) and has not allowed any of his offseason distractions to linger into his football prep, I really like Garrett Wilson to find the endzone at this price.

Wilson has only caught seven touchdowns over his two seasons in the league, but that’s more a product of his quarterbacks than his ability. With a (hopefully) healthy Rodgers under center, I’m believing in the Wilson breakout season.

Though I don’t love a lot of touchdowns to be scored in this one, I think Wilson shows the best value on the board.

• Pick: Garrett Wilson Anytime TD (+160 at bet365)