2021 NFL Playoff Divisional Round Odds, Lines, and Picks

• NFL Divisional Playoff action gets underway this weekend, with two games on Saturday and two games on Sunday
• The top-seeded Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs are heavy home favorites, while No. 2 seeds Buffalo and New Orleans face tough tests
• We’ve got you covered with all the odds and trends heading into the second weekend of this season’s NFL playoffs

The NFL playoffs continue this weekend with four Divisional Playoff matchups. The top-seeded Green bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs open their respective playoff schedules as big home favorites. The second-seeded Buffalo Bills and New Orleans Saints seek to fend off challenges in their respective matchups with the fifth-seeded Baltimore Ravens and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Here’s a look at where the Divisional Playoff odds stand, and tips on the best available midweek bets for each contest.

NFL Divisional Playoff Odds

Odds taken on Jan. 13 at DraftKings

Rams vs Packers

Kickoff Time: Saturday at 4:35 PM Eastern

Notable Betting Line Changes: The Rams have gained little ground since opening as 7-point underdogs. The total has also moved slightly downward, dipping to 45.5 after opening at 46.

Analysis: Divisional Playoff Weekend kicks off with a clash between the NFL’s highest-scoring offense and the league’s stingiest defense. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has all but assured himself of winning this season’s NFL MVP award while tossing for 48 touchdowns, including three or more scores in six of his past seven appearances. Green Bay has also been dominant at Lambeau Field, claiming victory in 15 of 17 overall dates since the start of last season.

This defense is special. pic.twitter.com/6rXCezhTOi

— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) January 8, 2021

The Rams turned in a stellar defensive performance in a 30-20 Wild Card Weekend win in Seattle. The Los Angeles defense allowed a league-best 18.5 points per game during the regular season and just 14.6 points per game over their past five outings. However, with both Jared Goff and John Wolford battling injuries, it remains unclear who will run the Rams offense on Sunday, and whether they can generate enough scoring to keep pace with the Packers.

The Pick: Packers -6.5 (-115)

Ravens vs Bills

Kickoff Time: Saturday at 8:15 PM Eastern

Notable Betting Line Changes: The Bills quickly lost ground in the hours after opening as 2.5-point chalk, but have steadily regained momentum since Monday morning, and have stabilized at -2.5. The total has increased slightly to 50.5 after opening at an even 50.

Analysis: The Bills assured themselves of the No. 2 seed in the AFC with a season-ending 9-1 SU run, and are coming off their first home playoff win in a generation. Their reward is a tough matchup with the No. 5 Baltimore Ravens. Josh Allen has powered the Bills attack, connecting on 17 scoring TDs over the past six games. However, Buffalo has a tendency to surrender lots of points at home, allowing 50 total points over the past two weeks.

List of #NFL players to ever throw for 300+ yards, tally a 70+ completion percentage and rush for 50+ yards in a playoff game:

🏈 Josh Allen pic.twitter.com/EbBB4h8jsq

— Buffalo Bills PR (@BuffaloBillsPR) January 9, 2021

Buffalo will be challenged on both sides of the ball by the Ravens, who have surrendered 17 or fewer points on five occasions during a 6-0 SU and ATS run. That trend extends to recent dates with the Bills, whom they have surrendered just 27 points to during a three-game win streak, making Baltimore the most likely team to pull off the upset this weekend.

The Pick: Ravens +2.5 (-106)

Browns vs Chiefs

Kickoff Time: Sunday at 3:05 PM Eastern

Notable Betting Line Changes: The Chiefs have steady at the sportsbooks since opening as 10-point home chalk, but have seen their moneyline odds shorten to -530 since being pegged at -480 following Wild Card Weekend. Conversely, the Browns have slipped from +370 to a lengthy +420. The total has steadily climbed from its opening position at 55.5 and currently sits at 56.5.

Analysis: The Browns showed no signs of rust in last weekend’s 48-37 upset victory over the arch-rival Pittsburgh Steelers. Denied the opportunity to practice for much of the previous two weeks while struggling with a COVID-19 outbreak, Cleveland dominated a Steelers squad that never recovered after seeing its 11-0 SU season-opening run halted.

To recap the #Browns’ prep this week due to COVID:

🔸 A week of virtual meetings
🔸 One Friday practice
🔸 One Saturday walkthrough/mock game from 1-2p

That’s it.

— Kimberley A. Martin (@ByKimberleyA) January 11, 2021

Cleveland enjoys no such luck against the well-rested defending champions. Tops in the league in yards per game during the regular season, the Chiefs enjoyed a bye on Wild Card Weekend, and also rested several regulars in a meaningless Week 17 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. Kansas City will be too much for a Browns squad that has performed well of late under tough circumstances.

The Pick: Over 56.5 (-110)

Buccaneers vs Saints

Kickoff Time: Sunday at 6:40 PM Eastern

Notable Betting Line Changes: There has been virtually no movement on the game line odds since the Saints opened as 3-point home favorites, with the total also holding steady at 51.5.

Analysis: A long-awaited playoff matchup between Tom Brady and Drew Brees will close out Divisional Playoff Weekend. Brady maintained his recent torrid pace while tossing for two scored and 381 passing yards in last Saturday’s 31-23 win in Washington, and has now led the Bucs to five straight victories, including three road wins.

So here's the Tom Brady effect quantified (yes, there are other changes to both teams) – Bucs had the NFL's third-largest improvement in point differential (plus-128 from 2019 to 2020) while the Patriots had the league's worst dropoff (minus-222). It's a net change of 350 points.

— Greg Auman (@gregauman) January 13, 2021

While Brees has not matched Brady’s prolific numbers, he and the Saints benefited from the return of Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara in last weekend’s 21-9 rout of the Chicago Bears. Just as important is the steady play of the Saints defense, which limited the Bears to just 239 total yards, and has allowed one or fewer scoring passes in eight of 10 outings.

The Pick: Saints -3 (-110)