2018 NFL Week 1 ATS Picks: Ravens Crush the Bills

• Week 1 of the 2018 NFL season continues Sunday, September 9th
• See the three picks against the spread we are most confident in
• Receive ATS picks for each remaining Week 1 game

The 2018 NFL season kicked off with the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles beating the Atlanta Falcons, 18-12. Unfortunately, I don’t have any banner reveal to celebrate, but I do plan on joining the Eagles as Week 1 winners.

With 13 more games on the Week 1 schedule this Sunday, and two more on Monday, I’ve offered up the three picks against the spread I’m most confident in.

NFL Week 1 ATS Locks

Pick #1: The Ravens Crush Nathan Peterman and the Bills

*All odds were taken September 7th

The Buffalo Bills quarterback situation is the worst in the league. After trading away Tyrod Taylor, who was always underappreciated, and AJ McCarron, who proved he was not starter material, the Bills are left to start Nathan Peterman.

Yes, that Nathan Peterman. The one who threw five interceptions in his first career start last season, which nearly cost Buffalo a spot in the playoffs.

Bills cut both punters they had on their preseason roster.. promote Nate Peterman to starting QB… Don’t need a punter if you throw picks every series pic.twitter.com/2mFieU6aNi

— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) September 3, 2018

I don’t care how much apparent faith this Bills coaching staff has in Peterman. He’s going into Baltimore, where the Ravens are 91-33 straight up since 2003 (second-best in NFL in that time), and will be facing a defense that led the league in takeaways last season (34).

In years past, I would have been reluctant to lay this many points with Joe Flacco. But I’m buying into the Flacco hype this season. Baltimore got him some weapons and lit a fire under him by drafting Lamar Jackson in the first-round of the 2018 NFL Draft.

For a deeper dive into the game, check out our Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens Betting Preview

Pick: Ravens -7.5

Pick #2: Broncos Start 2018 on the Right Foot

There is one stat you need to know for this game: the Broncos are 17-1 straight up this century in their home-openers. That, ladies and gentlemen, is a home field advantage.

I strongly believe this trend will continue in 2018, as the Broncos host the Seahawks in Week 1.

The 2018 Broncos are not going to resemble the team you remember watching last season, who turned the ball over 34 times (second-most in the NFL). With Case Keenum under center, Denver’s offense will not only protect the football, but also put some points on the board.

Case Keenum with a fascinating and fantastic quote:

“I’m trying to end every drive with a kick. Whether it’s a field goal, extra point or punt.”

— Zac Stevens (@ZacStevensBSN) August 6, 2018

And the addition of Bradley Chubb returns the Bronco defense to a championship level.

The Seahawks are going through a ton of change on defense, and their offensive line is still garbage. Russell Wilson is going to be under pressure all day and will be lucky to escape this game in one piece.

Pick: Broncos -3

Pick #3: The Rams Spoil Gruden’s Return

Hue Jackson has won one game in two full seasons as the Browns head coach. Yet, the coach who has received the most criticism this offseason is Jon Gruden.

The Raiders defense was bad in 2017. The main thing keeping them from being awful was Khalil Mack. But in a shocking move, Gruden and GM Reggie McKenzie shipped the 2016 Defensive Player of the Year to Chicago.

Rams offered “a pretty aggressive package” for Khalil Mack before Bears deal, per @LATimesklein https://t.co/OCeQHL2jyG pic.twitter.com/Czva4Yha4G

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 6, 2018

And in an attempt to provide Derek Carr with more weapons, Oakland let Michael Crabtree go, and brought in 33-year-old Jordy Nelson along with Doug Martin, who has averaged 2.9 yards per carry over the last two seasons.

The Rams offense is going to be humming, and I pity every offense who has to deal with Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh in 2018.

Read more into this game in our Rams vs Raiders Betting Preview.

Pick: Rams -4.5

Full Week 1 Picks Against the Spread