2018 NFL Win Totals: Raiders Will Go Under under Gruden (UPDATED)

• Despite going 6-10 last year and playing in the tough AFC West, the Raiders’ win total is at 8.0.
• Jon Gruden is bringing an antiquated run-first approach that will have trouble keeping up in the modern NFL. 
• Khalil Mack’s holdout and potential trade tempers all optimism about defensive improvements. 

The Oakland Raiders regressed from 12-4 in 2016 to a woeful 6-10 last year. It wasn’t entirely unexpected as they recorded a point differential of just +31 in 2016, worse than the 9-7 Broncos and 7-8-1 Cardinals, and had a tremendous record in close games.

Heading into 2018 under new head coach Jon Gruden, many expect Oakland to bounce back to at least .500. Indeed, all major online sportsbooks have set their win total at 8.0 in light of the optimism from the general public.

Oakland Raiders: Under 8.0 Wins

However, for the reasons detailed below, the better option for bettors is to take the Oakland under.

Find a comparison of all 32 NFL win totals and odds here. 

1. The Opening Point Spreads Predict a Sub-.500 Record

After the draft and free-agency, some sportsbooks post lines for the all the games in the first 16 weeks of the NFL season. The table below sets out the opening spread for Oakland’s first 16 games, along with the estimated win probability based on that spread.

Add up all the win probabilities and then divide by 16 (i.e. the number of games). What you get is a number just under 50%, meaning, all together, the Raiders are more likely to go 7-9 than 9-7, just based on the math.

But there’s more than just point-spread data to support the Raiders’ under.

2. Jon Gruden Wants to Play Throwback Football

It’s actually kind of ironic to call Gruden’s preferred style “throwback” because it involves more running than throwing.

The Raiders’ offseason additions point to Gruden employing a run-heavy game plan, as well. They replaced aging WR Michael Crabtree (30) with the even older Jordy Nelson (33), who’s coming off his worst 15-plus game season since his rookie year (53 receptions, 482 yards). Then they re-signed blocking tight end Lee Smith and brought in another in the form of Derrick Carrier.

At a time when the entire league is learning that passing = points, Gruden is going in the opposite direction.

Raiders TE Jared Cook was born in 1987. Jon Gruden is showing team football film that is older, he said. “He’s bringing out film from like 1976 when you ain’t even think they had film. Grainy film where you can barely see the players.” Added some of plays, scheme originate there.

— Michael Gehlken (@GehlkenNFL) July 31, 2018

It’s a tack that’s liable to leave Oakland chasing the game more often than not, and that’s not a sustainable situation for this team because …

3. The Raiders Defense Stinks

Going run-heavy would be one thing if, say, Gruden had the Jacksonville defense to fall back on.  He could pound plodding running backs Marshawn Lynch and Doug Martin into the line, pick up the odd first down, and win the field-position battle.

But he doesn’t. He has a defense that finished 29th overall in DVOA last year and 23rd in yards allowed. It was particularly bad against the pass (30th in DVOA) and was dead-last in the league for much of last season.

#Raiders’ still at 32 overall in team defense DVOA. If anyone is surprised at this point, we’re watching different teams: https://t.co/PKsz8wt3Tg

— ryan (@StillRyanFive) November 29, 2017

There’s reason to think the secondary will be better this year: 2017 first-round pick Gareon Conley returns from a shin injury that cost him most of his rookie season and free-agent addition Rashaan Melvin is coming off his best year. But going from a bottom-three defense to even mid-pack would be a huge leap.

And making that kind of jump is all the less likely since one kind of important piece is currently missing …

4. Where the Hell Is Khalil Mack? UPDATE: Khalil Mack is Gone!

Star defensive end Khalil Mack — the only Oakland player ProFootballFocus ranked in its top 100 at the end of last season — is still in the midst of a contract holdout has been traded to Chicago. He was the only thing holding this Oakland defense together last year, generating a 92.1 grade from PFF.

Not only was he by far their best pass rusher, he was also key to the run defense, ranking sixth for edge rushers in PFF’s “run-stop percentage.”

Dealing Mack for two first-round picks should signal one thing to all bettors: this team is more interested in being good when it moves to Las Vegas.

There’s no sign of a detente in the cold war between Mack and the Raiders. He wants a new contract and they don’t want to give him one. The situation has become so fraught that there are even trade rumors.

Whether he stays on the roster or not, he’s unlikely to suit up in Week 1 when Oakland hosts the Rams as 3.0-point home dogs. Losing that near-toss-up at home would be a massive impediment to this team reaching nine wins.

The only games where they opened as a favorite of 5.5 or more were the Browns in Week 4 and the Colts in Week 8.

Unfortunately for the silver and black, both of those teams have seen their win totals rise over the course of the preseasons, the Browns thanks to promising QB play from both Tyrod Taylor and Baker Mayfield, and the Colts thanks to the long-awaited return of Andrew Luck. There’s not a single gimme on this schedule.