2018 NFL MVP Odds: Rodgers, Wentz, and Brady Lead the Pack

• Aaron Rodgers, Carson Wentz, and Tom Brady stand on their own level when it comes to 2018 NFL MVP odds
• Which one is the best bet to win the honors, though?
• What other players could offer some value beyond the top contenders?
  

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Odds to win the 2018 NFL MVP award were released in April and we’ve seen quite a bit of movement over the summer. One thing that hasn’t changed, though, is the three QBs who stand above the rest.

Average Odds to Win the 2018 NFL MVP

Though New England’s Tom Brady had the best average odds to win the award in April, Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers has overtaken Brady as the favorite. Brady has the second-shortest average odds now, but one online sports betting site has him third on their list.

2018 NFL MVP Odds

*Follow the link to see the odds for all contenders

But which one of these three is the best bet?

Can Rodgers Claim his 3rd MVP?

Rodgers is already a two-time winner of the award, with the last one coming in 2014.

His 2017 season got off to a great start, posting a 104.1 passer rating through the first five games. But then disaster struck, as Rodgers suffered a broken collarbone during the Packers’ Week 6 loss to Minnesota.

Rodgers probably came back a little too early for Green Bay’s crucial Week 15 matchup with the Panthers, but just wasn’t himself. The pivot was shut down for the season following that loss.

Rodgers may now be 34 years of age, but he’s only one season removed from throwing 40 TDs – the second-highest total of his career since he threw 45 in 2011. His 4,428 passing yards were also his highest since that 2011 season.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bx52vu7-lLM

Rodgers will enter 2018 with some uncertainty around the offense, as his favorite receiver, Jordy Nelson, is now playing in Oakland.

The right side of the offensive line is also dealing with some injuries and will be worth monitoring. Rodgers will still have plenty of receiving threats in Davante Adams, Randall Cobb (if he’s not traded), plus the addition of TE Jimmy Graham from Seattle.

Aaron Rodgers ➡️ Jimmy Graham

Should probably get used to this onehttps://t.co/PN7atu4zD0

— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) August 17, 2018

The Packers may not be the favorites to win the NFC North (the Vikings are), but they do face the fifth-easiest schedule in the league based on projected wins. And as history has shown, team success is certainly a factor in NFL MVP voting.

Will Carson Wentz Pick up Where he Left Off?

The Wentz wagon was full in 2017, as the second-year QB burst onto the scene with 33 TDs in 13 games. Unfortunately, Wentz was another QB to see his season cut short when he suffered a torn ACL and LCL in Week 14.

Had the 25-year-old finished the season, it’s likely he would have been named the 2017 NFL MVP.

Before injury, Carson Wentz was one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL in 2017. pic.twitter.com/RQ1N6aDt0J

— PFF (@PFF) May 20, 2018

Backup Nick Foles took over under center and led Philly to its first Super Bowl championship. The Eagles have the roster to make another deep run and are favorites to repeat as NFC East champs.

Though it’s still unclear if Wentz will be ready come Week 1, if he picks up where he left off in 2017, it would be hard to see anyone else winning the MVP award.

Can Tom Brady Repeat as NFL MVP?

The now 41-year-old Tom Terrific is still defying Father Time. He is the reigning NFL MVP after his 32 TD, 4,577 yard performance in 2017.

2017 Stat Comparison

If Brady stays healthy – he’s only missed four regular season games in the past nine years – there’s no reason to think New England won’t once again be in the Super Bowl discussion come January, which likely puts Brady in the MVP discussion.

Though he may not have the same arm strength he once did, he’s seen no drop in his play, statistically speaking. His passer rating last year was the fifth-best of his career.

“Tom Brady and Brett Favre have almost identical numbers at age 40. Brett Favre fell off at age 41… This is the year Tom Brady looks 41.” — @RobParkerFS1 pic.twitter.com/JrbdwONlg0

— FOX Sports (@FOXSports) August 17, 2018

In 2018, Brady will be behind the projected least expensive offensive line – who also just lost first-round pick Isaiah Wynn for the season – and has lost weapons in Danny Amendola and Brandin Cooks. He will also be without Julian Edelman for the first four games due to a suspension.

Super Bowl losers often regress the following year, and while Brady and the Pats are likely still playoff bound, I foresee some regression for the team and their 41-year-old quarterback.

Who’s the Best 2018 NFL MVP Bet?

With Wentz still not cleared to play and Brady entering the twilight of his career, I’ll agree with the odds and pick Rodgers at +500 as the best bet for MVP of the top three contenders.

But don’t be afraid to dig a little further for some value.

Most yards from scrimmage before the age of 24 in NFL history:

1. Barry Sanders: 5,391
2. Clinton Portis: 5,327
3. Edgerrin James: 5,297
4. Emmitt Smith: 5,034
5. Todd Gurley: 4,599 pic.twitter.com/GXCZCsA167

— GO ‘CANES! (@83_87_89_91_01) August 19, 2018

Rams RB Todd Gurley is paying +2000. He runs, he catches, and he had a combined 21 TDs last year. Year 2 under Sean McVay may be even more explosive.

The Steelers have the fourth-best odds to win the Super Bowl, and if they do, surely WR Antonio Brown (+5000) will have had a standout year. No wide receiver has ever won the award before, but very few have ever dominated the way Brown does.