College Football Week 11 Upset Pick: Surging Kansas State Hands Texas Another Loss

• Kansas State is 7-point road underdogs at Texas in Week 11
• The Wildcats have won three straight games against Big 12 opponents
• Can Kansas State upset the Longhorns on the road?

No. 16 Kansas State (6-2, 3-2 Big 12) is a 7-point road underdog at Texas (5-3, 3-2 Big 12) in Week 11 (Saturday, Nov. 9th, 3:30 PM ET). The Wildcats recently handed Oklahoma its first loss of the season and has won three straight games.

Dual-threat QB Skylar Thompson has been a force and is leading one of the best rushing offenses in the country.

Texas is struggling defensively and suffered an upset loss to TCU before a Week 10 bye. Are the Longhorns a good bet to get upset by the Wildcats, despite the K-State vs Texas odds trending towards the Longhorns?

Texas vs Kansas State Odds

Odds taken Nov. 6

Kansas State On Impressive Run

The Wildcats are 6-2 on the season and have won three straight games, including a 48-41 upset victory over Oklahoma in Week 9. Kansas State is averaging 37 points per game during this winning streak, and the College Football Playoff selection committee has taken notice.

Kansas State No. 16 in 1st College Football Playoff poll

— Blair Kerkhoff (@BlairKerkhoff) November 6, 2019

The Wildcats run game has played a big role in their success. Kansas State exploded for 342 yards on the ground in a 38-10 win over Kansas last week and rank 24th nationally in rushing offense (217.3 yards per game).

Texas Susceptible To Upsets

The Longhorns were upset 37-27 by TCU in Week 9 and narrowly avoided an upset loss to Kansas in Week 8 (50-48). Texas (5-3)  has struggled defensively all season and rank 118th nationally in total defense. They are allowing a whopping 6.42 yards per play and 465.5 yards per game.

While Sam Ehlinger is a talented quarterback, he’s coming off a shaky performance against TCU in which he threw four interceptions. Considering the Longhorns allowed 435 total yards to TCU, Kansas State is catching Ehlinger and Texas at the perfect time.

Skylar Thompson Will Be Difference

Kansas State may have the most dangerous player in this game in QB Skylar Thompson. The dual-threat QB ran for 127 yards and three touchdowns and also had 129 yards passing against Kansas last week. Thompson has rushed for eight scores during the team’s winning streak and will provide a big test for a Texas rush defense allowing 160.1 yards per game.

Skylar Thompson breaking KU ankles pic.twitter.com/DhvMCd5ks0

— The Kansas State Fan (@Thekstatefan) November 6, 2019

Texas has struggled against mobile quarterbacks this season. Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts and Oklahoma State’s Spencer Sanders have both rushed for over 100 yards against the Longhorns this season, while TCU’s Max Duggan had an 11-yard run to clinch the win for the Horned Frogs in Week 9.

Previous Meetings Have Been Close

Texas has won the last two meetings against Kansas State, but it hasn’t been easy. The Longhorns only won the 2018 meeting by three points and also had a tough time with Kansas State in a 40-34 victory two years ago.

Offensive coordinator Courtney Messingham and head coach Chris Klieman both came to Kansas State from North Dakota State this offseason and have done a great job leading this team to bowl eligibility. This won’t be the same offense Texas has seen the last few years.

Verdict

Kansas State is coming off two strong offensive performance against Power 5 opponents and should build on that success against a lackluster Texas defense. Texas has allowed an average of 505 yards in their last three games and haven’t had an answer for dual-threat QB’s.

Skylar Thompson has been a force for the Wildcats and will be a big problem for a Texas team that hasn’t been able to contain mobile quarterbacks.

Look for Texas’ offense to put up a good fight, but Kansas State once again rides their run game to an impressive upset victory.

Pick: Kansas State (+215)