Week 9 College Football Picks Against the Spread
By Brady Trettenero in College Football
Updated: October 26, 2024 at 11:18 am EDTPublished:
- Week 9 of the 2024 college football season features several intriguing matchups on Saturday, October 26th
- Among our Week 9 college football against the spread picks are plays on Texas, Northwestern, and Bowling Green
- Read below for expert Week 9 college football picks against the spread
The 2024 college football season is heading into its ninth week, and there are several enticing matchups on the betting board. I’m back with my top college football against the spread picks for Week 9 on Saturday, October 26th.
In my Week 9 college football picks against the spread, I’m targeting Texas in a bounce-back spot vs Vanderbilt while also backing Northwestern to keep it close against Iowa. To wrap things up, I head to the MAC conference for my final CFB spread pick of Week 9.
Here are my Week 9 college football picks against the spread, providing you with our reasoning for each bet.
Week 9 CFB ATS Picks
| Matchup | Pick (Odds) |
|---|---|
| Texas vs Vanderbilt | Texas -17.5 (-112.5) |
| Northwestern vs Iowa | Northwestern +14.5 (-112) |
| Bowling Green vs Toledo | Bowling Green +3 (-120) |
My Week 9 college football picks against the spread feature a mix of power conference clashes and an intriguing MAC showdown. I’ve identified key betting angles in each matchup and provided an in-depth breakdown of each pick.
Texas vs Vanderbilt Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | -17.5 (-112) | -850 | Over 51 (-112) |
| Vanderbilt | +17.5 (-108) | +575 | Under 51 (-108) |
All odds updated October 26th at DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out the best betting apps for college football against the spread wagering.
Pick #1: Texas -17.5 (vs Vanderbilt)
My first addition to my Week 9 college football picks against the spread is all about the numbers. There are several trends pointing to Texas covering the 17.5-point spread against Vanderbilt on Saturday.
For starters, teams who lose when ranked No. 1 are 4-1 ATS in the following game since 2019. On a broader scale, ranked teams who lose by 10+ points in the previous week cover the spread the next week over 60% of the time historically.
The Horns are headed to Nashville🤘
🏈 Texas at Vanderbilt
📅 Saturday, Oct. 26 | 3:15 PM CT
📍FirstBank Stadium | Nashville, TN
📺 SEC Network pic.twitter.com/vyzoy1Hsjk— Texas Football (@TexasFootball) October 21, 2024
It’s all about public perception, and the public is high on Vandy and low on Texas right now. That creates value with the more talented team in the CFB betting odds. Quinn Ewers and the Texas offense should get back on track against a Vandy secondary allowing 7.3 yards per attempt.
Yes, Vanderbilt has covered double-digit spreads in all three of its SEC games thus far. However, the Longhorns thrive as a double-digit favorite, going 15-8 ATS under Sarkisian in this role.
The Texas QB situation is getting plenty of talk, but I expect the Longhorns ground game to be one of the biggest stories Saturday. Three Longhorns backs are averaging over four yards per carry, and they should feast on a Commodores defense that grades 88th nationally in tackling (per PFF).
- Pick: Texas -17.5 (-112)
Northwestern vs Iowa Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern | +14.5 (-110) | +500 | Over 38 (-108) |
| Iowa | -14.5 (-108) | -700 | Under 38 (-112) |
Pick #2: Northwestern +14.5 (vs Iowa)
Another addition to my Week 9 college football picks against the spread is a play on the Northwestern Wildcats against the Iowa Hawkeyes. I love the value on Northwestern to stay within two scores in one of the lowest-scoring projected games on the board (38).
The Wildcats have been a great CFB bet as underdogs, posting a 3-1 ATS record this season when getting points. Iowa, meanwhile, has struggled to cover large spreads. Kirk Ferentz’s program is just 3-7-1 ATS when favored by 10 or more points against Big 10 opponents over the past five seasons.
Kirk Ferentz on responding from the loss:
"That's football, you've gotta move on…" pic.twitter.com/418vcLWVto
— Blake Hornstein (@BlakeHornTV) October 20, 2024
The extremely low total of 38 points also favors Northwestern covering. With so few possessions expected, it will be difficult for Iowa to pull away and cover two touchdowns. Six of the last eight meetings between these teams have been decided by less than 10 points.
Northwestern’s stingy defense is allowing just 23.1 points per game and should limit a one-dimensional Iowa offense. The Hawkeyes run the ball on 61% of plays and must face a Wildcats defensive front allowing only 3.23 yards per carry – 7th-best in the nation.
- Pick: Northwestern +14.5 (-112)
Bowling Green vs Toledo Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bowling Green | +2.5 (-108) | +110 | Over 48.5 (-110) |
| Toledo | -2.5 (-112) | -130 | Under 48.5 (-110) |
Pick #3: Bowling Green +3 (vs Toledo)
I’m concluding my Week 9 college football picks against the spread with a play in a MAC matchup between Bowling Green and Toledo. I’m backing the Falcons to keep the game within a field goal against the Rockets.
Bowling Green is a perfect 2-0 ATS when getting 2.5 points or more this year. They have plenty of matchup edges that should help them continue the trend. The biggest one is their elite passing attack facing Toledo’s vulnerable secondary.
Connor Bazelak ➡️ Malcolm Johnson Jr. is the Play of the Game 🔥
🎥⬇️ pic.twitter.com/3DipaSlBwr
— BGSU Football (@BG_Football) October 20, 2024
The Rockets are allowing nearly seven yards per attempt, and they’ve been burned by elite passing teams such as Mississippi State and Miami (OH). This plays right into the hands of Bowling Green, who is super efficient through the air.
Falcons senior QB Connor Bazelak has completed a ridiculous 77.5% of his passes this month for 669 yards, three TDs and no interceptions. On the flip side, junior QB could make just his second collegiate start after completing only 53% of his passes last week vs Northern Illinois.
Recent history is on Bowling Green’s side as well. The Falcons stunned Toledo as 21.5-point underdogs in their last meeting, winning outright to give head coach Scott Loeffler his first rivalry victory. Bowling Green has proven they can hang with the Rockets, so buy the half point and add them to your card.
- Pick: Bowling Green +3 (-120)
Brady’s 2024 CFB ATS Picks Record: 18-9
Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
