New Mexico State vs Fresno State Prediction, Odds & Picks (Dec. 16)

• The New Mexico State Aggies are 3.5-point favorites over the Fresno State Bulldogs in the New Mexico Bowl on Saturday, December 16
• Fresno State is 18-1 straight up in 19 previous meetings with New Mexico
• The Aggies are 4-0-1 SU all-time in the Schoo’s bowl game history

Sports are a what have you done for me lately business and that’s the approach oddsmakers are obviously taking in setting the line between the New Mexico State Aggies (10-4, 11-3 ATS) and Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4, 4-8 ATS) for the New Mexico Bowl.

It’s the Aggies who are established as 3.5-point favorites over the Bulldogs in the New Mexico State vs Fresno State odds. However, in 19 previous meetings between the two schools, it’s the Bulldogs who are 18-1 straight up.

Fresno State has outscored New Mexico State 680-272 in those 19 games. However, the Aggies are 6-1 against the spread in the last seven games against the Bulldogs.

Looking more deeply into the New Mexico State vs Fresno State odds, we’ll offer you our prediction for this NCAA football bowl game.

New Mexico State vs Fresno State Odds

In the New Mexico State vs Fresno State odds, the Aggies are -180 moneyline favorites, giving them a 64.29% implied win probability. The total is set at 51.5 points. The teams are combined 5-5-1 on the over/under when the total is 51.5 points or less.

Odds as of Dec. 14 at ESPN BET. Check out our ESPN BET promo before betting on Aggies vs Bulldogs and other college football bowl game action. And don’t forget to input the promo code “DIME” when signing up at ESPN BET to get your $250 in bonus bets.

The Aggies are a perfect 4-0-1 straight up all-time in bowl games.  Last year, New Mexico State beat Bowling Green in the Quick Lane Bowl. This is the first appearance for the Aggies in the New Mexico Bowl, which is held at the home of their arch rivals the New Mexico Lobos.

Fresno State is 16-15 SU in bowl games, but 4-0 in the past four. The Bulldogs beat Washington State 29-6 last year in the LA Bowl.

Kickoff for this game at University Stadium on Saturday, December 16 is set for 5:45 pm ET. The broadcast is being carried by ABC.

Aggies vs Bulldogs Betting Trends

In the college football public betting splits, the people are expecting New Mexico State to win, but covering is another matter. The favored Aggies are drawing 85% of handle and 87% of bets in the moneyline splits. Away from home this season, New Mexico State is 5-3 SU.

Spread splits are divided, however. Fresno State is garnering 68% of bets, but there’s 62% of handle backing New Mexico State. The Bulldogs are 1-7 ATS during their last eight games.

On the total of 51.5 points, the betting public is also unsure. There’s 51% of handle on the over and 54% of bets backing the under. Through their past eight games, the Aggies are 2-6 on the over/under.

Aggies Staging Impressive Turnaround

The Aggies have lost just one game since October. That was their last outing, a 49-35 setback to unbeaten Liberty in the Conference USA title game. Since Jerry Kill took over as head coach, he’s guided them to two consecutive bowl games. That gives New Mexico State three bowl appearances since 1960.

Aggies QB Diego Pavia is the Conference USA offensive player of the year. He’s among eight NCAA players who are leading their teams in both passing (2915 yards) and rushing (508 yards). He’s thrown for 26 TDs and run for six more.

Diego Pavia and the team made it to Albuquerque where they were interviewed by KRQE.

Take a wild guess what one of the first questions was about…#AggieUp pic.twitter.com/OfPpTEZe9Y

— James Baca, 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐍𝐨𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐮𝐬 𝐁𝐚𝐧𝐤𝐞𝐫 (@notoriousbanker) December 14, 2023

However, Pavia might have some explaining to do. Earlier this season when New Mexico State was playing at New Mexico, Pavia was caught on video urinating on the New Mexico logo in the Lobos practice facility.

Slumping Bulldogs Without Head Coach

At the outset of the season, Fresno State was among the hottest teams in college football. The Bulldogs beat two Power Five schools and were ranked among the top-25 teams in the nation.

Then it all went off the rails. Fresno State arrives at the New Mexico Bowl with a 3-4 SU slate over their last seven games, including a current three-game losing skid in which the Bulldogs have failed to score 20 points in any of the setbacks.

"He's been a great coach, but at the same time he's been a great person to everyone in that building. We're all praying for him." – @FresnoStateFB QB Mikey Keene talks Jeff Tedford after he stepped away to address health concerns.

Catch his interview tonight 🏈 pic.twitter.com/GnCmOrmZPs

— Vanessa Romo (@VanessaRomoTV) December 11, 2023

As well, head coach Jeff Tedford has taken a leave of absence from the team due to health reasons. Linebackers coach Tim Skipper will be serving as acting head coach for this game.

One factor that Pavia will need to keep in mind is that the Bulldogs are ballhawks. They’ve picked off 16 passes, tied for fifth in the nation. CB Carlton Johnson leads way with four picks, one of five Fresno State defenders with multiple interceptions.

New Mexico State vs Fresno State Prediction

Both of these schools have signature victories on their 2023 ledgers. New Mexico State went to Auburn in November and hammered the Tigers 31-10. Fresno State posted a 39-35 win at Purdue and a 29-0 road shutout of Arizona State.

However, it’s the Aggies who are trending upward right now. The Bulldogs have lost three in a row and are without their head coach. And New Mexico State draws the added advantage of playing close to home. And at 78.6%, the Aggies are the best cover team in the NCAA this season.

New Mexico State vs Fresno State Pick: New Mexico State Aggies -3.5 (-110)

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