College Football Line Movement – Updated Week 1 Odds, Spreads, and Betting Lines

• Week 1 of the 2022 college football season continues Friday, September 2nd
• Kentucky has gone from a 20.5-point favorite down to -16 versus Miami (OH)
• See below for analysis on the biggest and smallest Week 1 CFB line moves, spreads and totals

Week 1 of the college football season rolls on Friday. We were treated to a handful of games to kick off the week on Thursday, and have the luxury of being glued to our TVs for four more days of action-packed football.

There’s been no shortage of movement in the college football betting lines as sharps and squares alike are weighing in heavily on this week’s slate. Let’s take a look at the biggest Week 1 line moves below, and the reasons behind them.

College Football Week 1 Betting Lines

Odds as of September 2nd at Barstool Sportsbook.

We’ll start with the matchup that has seen the biggest shift to its point spread since opening odds were released. That of course would be the Miami (Ohio) versus #20 Kentucky contest, where there is a sharp divide among sharp and public bettors.

Biggest Week 1 Spread Moves

The Wildcats opened up as 20.5-point favorites over the RedHawks. Despite the lofty spread, 86% of the against the spread wagers came in on Kentucky. Funny thing is, the line started moving towards Miami (Ohio) and it didn’t stop after a couple points.

“We still have four more straight days of college football” pic.twitter.com/4hXcn9lRge

— SportsBettingDime (@SBD) September 2, 2022

As of Friday morning, the Wildcats are down to a 16-point favorite. That’s because the 14% of ATS bets that are backing the RedHawks are making up nearly 25% of the betting handle. Anytime the percentage of money bet is significantly higher than the number of tickets that have been written, it’s almost always a case of sharp bettors making a stand.

With kickoff still over 24 hours away, the line for this game might not be done moving. I wouldn’t expect any more action towards Miami (Ohio), so if anything there could be a buyback on Kentucky. The Wildcats have won each of their past 22 games as a favorite of 5 or more points versus Group of 5 or FCS opponents, with an average margin of victory of 24 points in five of the past six instances.

Biggest Week 1 Total Moves

When it comes to over/unders for Week 1, the biggest movement we’ve seen so far has happened in the Colorado State versus #8 Michigan odds. The total opened at 57.5 and has jumped all the way up to 62.

As of Friday morning, 84% of the over/under money bet was backing the over, as well as 59% of the total tickets. Despite the overwhelming support for a high-scoring game, consider the following. During the Jim Harbaugh era at Michigan, Wolverine contests versus Group of 5 opponents have produced an average total of just 53.9 points (42.2 to 11.7).

Ready to prove ourselves again#GoBlue pic.twitter.com/rg0r0aKpUn

— Michigan Football (@UMichFootball) September 1, 2022

Michigan will have no problem racking up points against CSU, but don’t expect the Rams to answer back. They graded out 103rd in the preseason SP+ offensive rankings and averaged just 23 points per game last season against primarily Group of 5 opposition.

Biggest and Smallest Week 1 Spreads

It should come as no surprise that #1 Alabama is the largest favorite on the board. The Crimson Tide opened up as 38-point favorites over Utah State, but 80% of the ATS bets and 68% of the handle have moved the number to Bama -41.5.  If you’re looking for a reason to fade the Crimson Tide, Nick Saban doesn’t exactly have an elite track record at covering large numbers versus vastly inferior opponents.

Nick Saban is 5-13-1 against the spread against non-Power 5 teams since 2012 😳@SatDownSouth pic.twitter.com/HMxojZhAMh

— SportsBettingDime (@SBD) September 1, 2022

He’s 5-13-1 against the spread versus non-Power 5 teams since 2012, and Alabama will likely treat this game as a tune-up for next week’s showdown with Texas. That means extended reps for the backups which could lead to a backdoor Aggies cover. Don’t expect this line to move much prior to Saturday.

As for the shortest spread on the board, that belongs to the Army versus Coastal Carolina matchup. The public is all over the Chanticleers backing them on 81% of the tickets. The sharps, however, are on Army. 57% of the betting handle is siding with the Black Knights. The line opened at Coastal Carolina -2 and hasn’t moved all week.

Biggest and Smallest Week 1 Totals

Last but not least, let’s look at the two games that project to be the highest and lowest scoring. The aforementioned CSU versus Michigan contest tops the list at 62 points, along with the #24 Houston versus UTSA matchup. While the Rams and Wolverines’ total has climbed 4.5 points throughout the week, the Cougars and Roadrunners’ total has not budged.

As for the lowest projected scoring game, that belongs to the Florida State versus LSU showdown. The total opened at 50 and that’s where it still stands. Given both programs grade out significantly better on defense than offense per SP+, if the number moves late, chances are it will fall below 50 points as opposed to above.