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2024 Heisman Odds, Predictions & Longshot Picks: Dillon the Villain

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in College Football

Updated Aug 25, 2024 · 12:24 AM PDT

Dillon Gabriel Heisman odds
Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel walks the field during practice with the Ducks Tuesday, Aug. 13, 2024 at the Hatfield-Dowlin Complex in Eugene, Ore.
  • Who will win the 2024 Heisman Trophy?
  • The latest Heisman odds favor Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel
  • Read below for 2024 Heisman odds, predictions and longshots to bet

The 2024 college football season has officially kicked off, but there’s still time to make your Heisman predictions before all the top quarterbacks take the field in Week 1.

We’ve tracked the Heisman race in-depth over the past decade and can provide the best guidance to help make an educated Heisman prediction. Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel enters Week 1 as the clear favorite to win the award.

Here is a look at the Heisman odds for 2024, along with expert predictions and longshot picks.

Heisman Odds 2024

Player (Team) Odds
Dillon Gabriel (QB, Oregon) +600
Carson Beck (QB, Georgia) +850
Quinn Ewers (QB, Texas) +1200
Jaxson Dart (QB, Ole Miss) +1300
Cameron Ward (QB, Miami) +1400
Jalen Milroe (QB, Alabama) +1400
Nico lamaleava (QB, Tennessee) +1500
Will Howard (QB, Ohio State) +1500
Avery Johnson (QB, Kansas State) +2200
Garrett Nussmeier (QB, LSU) +2200
Jalon Daniels (QB, Kansas) +3000
Riley Leonard (QB, Duke) +3000
Brady Cook (QB, Missouri) +3500
Conner Weigman (QB, Texas A&M) +3500
Shedeur Sanders (QB, Colorado) +3500
Cameron Rising (QB, Utah) +4000
Jackson Arnold (QB, Oklahoma) +4000
Miller Moss (QB, USC) +4000
Cade Klubnik (QB, Clemson) +5000
Drew Allar (QB, Penn State) +5000
Noah Fifita (QB, Arizona) +5000
Travis Hunter (WR/DB, Colorado) +5000

The Heisman odds ahead of Week 1 show Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel as the +600 favorite, which is 14.3% implied win probability.

 

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Gabriel Favored over Beck, Ewers

Dillon Gabriel didn’t open as the Heisman favorite, but that’s the exact position the senior finds himself in days away from Week 1. The 23-year-old opened as a +1000 longshot for the Heisman but overtook preseason favorite Carson Beck during the summer.

Money has been pouring in on Gabriel to win the Heisman, and I can’t argue with Vegas. Gabriel brings a wealth of experience and success to the Ducks’ offense, amassing nearly 16,000 passing yards during his time at UCF and Oklahoma.

YouTube video

Experienced quarterbacks are often the best bets for the Heisman, and I believe Gabriel has all the tools to be a finalist at the very least. Oregon’s offense is poised to be one of the most explosive in the country this season after averaging 44 points per game in 2023.

Gabriel will have the benefit of throwing to arguably the best wide receiver duo in college football, Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart. Furthermore, offensive coordinator Will Stein has instilled an innovative scheme, meaning the Ducks should put up plenty of points and highlight-reel plays.

Beck, Ewers Knocking on the Door

While Gabriel may be the favorite, he’s not the only quarterback with a legit shot at the Heisman. Georgia’s Carson Beck and Texas’ Quinn Ewers have been near the top of the odds board for much of the offseason and make up the second group of contenders.

Beck enters his senior season at Georgia with high expectations after an impressive junior campaign in which he threw for 3,941 yards and 24 touchdowns last year. The 22-year-old led UGA to an undefeated regular season before falling to Alabama in the SEC Title game.

Ewers, meanwhile, returns for his third season as the Texas starting QB, with the team making the transition to the SEC in 2024. Last season, Ewers threw for 3,479 yards and 22 touchdowns while completing 70.7% of his passes. He had a monster performance in the Big 12 Championship game with 452 yards and four TDs.

Out of the Heisman favorites, I think Gabriel has the best upside. Beck has lost his top targets, including Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey, while the same can be said for Ewers, who is losing Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell, and Ja’Tavion Sanders.

Several players returned to Oregon specifically because they knew this team has a chance to be special. After Marcus Mariota won the Heisman in 2014 and Bo Nix finished as a finalist in 2023, I think Gabriel winning the Heisman is as safe a CFB futures bet as you can make. I’d lock this in before the games get underway.

  • Heisman Best Bet: Dillon Gabriel (+600)
College Football Win Totals You Need to Bet Before Kickoff
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Heisman Longshot Picks to Consider

While I’m confident in my Dillon Gabriel Heisman prediction, which longshots are worth sprinkling on? Jackson Dart (+1300) and Cam Ward (+1400) aren’t huge longshots at their current prices, but I think there’s upside with both players.

Dart is poised for a breakout season in 2024 with Ole Miss favored to make the CFP. The dual-threat quarterback has steadily improved each year, boosting his passing yards from 2,974 in 2021 to 3,364 in 2023 while reducing his interceptions from 11 to just five.

The Rebels have surrounded Dart with elite talent at the skill positions, including first-team All-SEC receiver Juice Wells and promising tight end Caden Prieskorn. Dart should put up some impressive numbers in CFB’s toughest conference.

Ward, meanwhile, takes over a lethal Miami offense that could dominate the ACC in 2024. The 22-year-old is an elite dual-threat pivot who threw for 3,732 yards, 25 touchdowns, and seven interceptions with Washington State in 2023. I’d look to him in this price range over Beck or Ewers.

If you’re looking for a true Heisman longshot pick, I’d take a look at Utah’s Cam Rising at +4000. Yes, this guy is returning for his seventh season after missing all of 2023 with a knee injury. Nearly 70% of Heisman winners have been seniors, and no one is more experienced than the 25-year-old Rising.

Rising will have a deeper receiving corps to work with, including USC transfer Dorian Singer, who had 1,105 receiving yards in 2022. The Utes also return an experienced offensive line and a versatile running back group.

I’m picking the Utes to win the Big 12 in their debut campaign, so Rising to win the Heisman at +4000 is a solid complementary bet to consider. You simply can’t go wrong sprinkling on someone with his level of talent and experience.

  • Best Heisman Longshot: Cam Rising (+4000)

 

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