Rice vs Memphis Prediction, Pick & Betting Line (Nov. 8)

• We’ve made our Rice vs Memphis prediction for Friday night AAC action
• The Tigers are 7-point home favorites after opening at -9.5
• Read below for Rice vs Memphis prediction, pick and betting analysis

The Rice Owls (3-6, 2-3 AAC) fly into the Liberty Bowl to face the Memphis Tigers (7-2, 3-2 AAC) in an American Athletic Conference showdown on Friday, November 8. This primetime matchup kicks off at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2, and could shake up the AAC standings.

Memphis opened as a 9.5-point home favorite, but the line has since dipped to 7, suggesting some intriguing betting market dynamics at play. The over/under set at 50.5 points for a game featung Memphis talented pivot Seth Henigan.

The Tigers need a win to keep their AAC title game hopes alive, while the Owls look to play spoiler and build off last week’s big upset victory.

Rice vs Memphis Prediction

Rice is riding high after shocking Navy 24-10 as 13-point home underdogs last week. It was an impressive debut for interim head coach Pete Alamar, who took the reins after Mike Bloomgren’s firing on October 27.

The Owls’ defense rose to the occasion, holding Navy’s triple-option attack to just 140 rushing yards. QB E.J. Warner returned from injury to throw for 239 yards and a TD. Rice has now covered in 3 of their last 4.

On the other sideline, Memphis is reeling after a deflating 44-36 loss at UTSA as 7-point road favorites. QB Seth Henigan did his part, throwing for 454 yards and 4 TDs, but the Tigers’ defense couldn’t get stops when it mattered most.

Memphis has now surrendered 40+ points in 3 of its last 5 games and is a dismal 1-5 ATS in its last 6 overall. It’s not heard to see why sharps are hammering the other side in the CFB public betting trends.

Toe tap 👟@seth_henigan x @kobydrake_53 #ALLIN | #GoTigersGo pic.twitter.com/4WAPtcK5p1

— Memphis Football (@MemphisFB) November 6, 2024

The key matchup to watch? Memphis’ high-flying passing game (282.9 ypg, 21st in FBS) against Rice’s stingy pass defense (159.2 ypg allowed, 7th in FBS). If the Owls can ground the Tigers’ aerial attack, this one could come down to the wire.

I predict Memphis to come away with the W, but laying 8.5 points is a tall order given the Tigers’ recent ATS struggles and potential for a post-UTSA hangover. Expect Rice’s defense to do just enough to secure the cover. Take Rice 7.

• Pick: Rice +7 (-110)

Rice vs Memphis Odds

Odds as of November 8, at ESPN Bet. Check out ESPN Bet reviews or browse other top sports betting sites.

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Currently, most sportsbooks have Memphis listed as a 7-point home favorite over Rice, with an over/under of 50.5. The -7 spread implies Memphis has about a 67.4% chance of winning by 9 or more.

The line movement from Memphis -9.5 to -7 is noteworthy, suggesting sharp bettors believe the Tigers are overvalued and the Owls undervalued. This likely stems from Memphis’ ATS woes (1-5 in last 6) and Rice’s new-coach bounce.

With Rice’s sturdy pass defense and Memphis’ recent defensive lapses, the 50.5-point total feels a tad inflated. Don’t be surprised if the under cashes, particularly if Rice can control the clock with its ground game.

Rice vs Memphis Head to Head

Rice and Memphis have met four times previously, with the series tied 2-2 both straight up and against the spread. The over/under is also an even 2-2.

Here’s a look at their historical meetings:

Their last encounter was over a decade ago in 2012, so there may not be a ton to glean from this head-to-head history. However, it’s worth noting that Rice has covered and won outright as an underdog in their past meetings.

Underdog Rice looks like a solid bet getting 8.5 points against a Memphis squad that has consistently failed to cover big numbers. Bank on the Owls’ pass defense keeping this one close in an entertaining AAC battle.