March Madness Odds: Which Bubble Teams Will Be Dancing?

The pinnacle of the sports calendar is only a handful of days away. While it’s hard not to look ahead to March Madness, I don’t want to scoff at the action-packed prelude we are treated to in Championship Week. Though many teams have already secured a bid into the big dance, there are those who need to beef up their resumes before applying to the Selection Committee.

Here are five bubble teams who need good showings in their conference tourneys to boost their odds of joining the Madness.

USC Trojans (Pac-12) [23-8 (10-8)]

The Trojans were a near lock for a tournament bid back in early February. But then came four straight losses to Oregon, UCLA, Arizona, and Arizona State. Fortunately, Andy Enfield’s group was able to rebound with convincing wins over Washington State and Washington to close out the season. Those wins serve merely as morale boosters, though, especially considering Markelle Fultz didn’t suit up for the Huskies.

The Trojans will also face a Fultz-less Washington team in the opening round of the Pac-12 tournament, so a win there won’t count for much. If and when they get by UW, they’ll have the chance to prove themselves against UCLA in the quarterfinals on a neutral court. So long as they don’t suffer another blowout, reminiscent of their 102-70 regular-season defeat, the Trojans’ resume should be worthy of a berth into the Madness.

Odds to get in: 2/3

Xavier Musketeers (Big East) [19-12 (9-9)]

The Musketeers were dealt a major blow when sophomore guard Edmond Sumner tore his ACL in late-January. Xavier was able to record a big win over Creighton (which was dealing with its own major injury) six days later, but eventually slipped into a six-game losing streak without their second-leading scorer. Fortunately, Trevon Bluiett and company had a regular-season finale against a miserable DePaul team which snapped the drought. Xavier draws last-placed DePaul again in the first-round of the Big East tournament.

It’s clear Xavier is not the same team without Sumner, but will the Selection Committee consider that? A competitive showing against Butler in the second-round of the Big East tourney should seal the deal. Getting blown-out will leave the door open for a mid-major to join the party.

Odds to get in: 3/4

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (ACC) [19-12 (9-9)]

Led by sophomore forward John Collins, a Second-Team All-American, the Demon Deacons reeled off three consecutive wins to close the regular season, earning a no. 10 seed in the ACC tournament. Wake Forest handled Boston College (the ACC’s worst) with ease in the first-round of the tourney. But they were supposed to. The road gets tougher now for Danny Manning and his men, as they draw Virginia Tech and Florida State next.

Wake Forest’s marquee win over Louisville a week ago has the team in pretty good position to earn one of the final bids into the big dance. Their two losses to Clemson will be held against them, though. A win over the Hokies in the ACC tournament, followed by a competitive game with FSU should be enough to get back in the bracket for the first time since 2010. A loss to Virginia Tech makes their future awfully cloudy.

Odds to get in: 4/5

Rhode Island Rams (Atlantic 10) [21-9 (13-5)]

Following a disappointing defeat to Fordham, the Rams responded in the only suitable way, by winning their final five games of the regular season. Included in that streak was a convincing win over VCU (69-59), rejuvenating Rhode Island’s March Madness hopes. But that one win won’t be enough to fall back on come Selection Sunday.

The Rams have played the A-10’s top-seeded Dayton twice this season, losing both by a combined four points. With a likely semifinal matchup against the Flyers, the Rams need to notch one more marquee win to stand up against the bubble teams from the power conferences.

Odds to get in: 5/4

Illinois Fighting Illini (Big Ten) [18-13 (8-10)]

After tearing off four consecutive wins in the Big Ten, three against teams above them in the conference, Illinois somehow found a way to lose to Rutgers in their regular season finale. Yep, those same Scarlet Knights who had only won two games in the Big Ten prior.

Thanks to that outrageous loss, the Illini really need to make some noise in the Big Ten tournament. Illinois draws Michigan in its first game. The teams split their two regular season meetings, each winning on home court. The neutral-site rubber match is a must-win for the Illini. Downing Michigan likely won’t be enough, though. Illinois will have to prove they can play with top-seeded Purdue (which dismantled them 91-68 in their only meeting this season) in the following round.

Odds to get in: 3/2