Kentucky Loses to Evansville as 25-Point Favorites; National Title Odds Drop from +800 to +1000

• No. 1 Kentucky lost at home as a 25-point favorite to Evansville on Tuesday
• The Wildcats dropped from +800 to +1000 to win the National Championship
• The Wildcats have had some shaky outings early on in previous seasons, including an unexpected loss to Seton Hall last season

In one of the most shocking results in recent college basketball history, the no. 1 Kentucky Wildcats lost outright to the Evansville Purple Aces (67-64) as a 25-point home favorite.

As a result, their 2020 March Madness title odds have slipped from +800  down to +1000.  Is the loss a red flag for those considering betting on Kentucky or is this merely an early-season slipup?

2020 NCAA Tournament Odds

Odds as of Nov. 13th, 2019.

Kentucky Stunned By Evansville

The Wildcats started the season with an impressive win over No. 1 Michigan State (69-62) and then easily handled Eastern Kentucky in their second contest (91-49). As they entered their third game of the season as a 25-point favorite, there had been no early signs of struggle that might indicate an upset was a possibility.

However, that’s exactly what happened on Tuesday as the Wildcat offense proved to be a complete mess. Kentucky hit just 37.0% from the field while making just four-of-17 from three-point land. Ashton Hagans was ice cold, shooting just one-of-eight from the field and finishing with three points.

Kentucky was also sloppy with 13 turnovers and were outrebounded 38-35. It’s not that Evansville played particularly well – they shot just 38.3% – but they did just enough to hang around and eventually pull this out.

Kentucky Often Has Early Season Surprises

A lot of people were shocked by Tuesday’s result and rightfully so, but it’s important to put it in perspective. John Calipari’s Kentucky teams are always young and inexperienced because they’re filled with one-and-dones. That typically leads to early-season losses each year, so this one shouldn’t be all that surprising.

In the 2017-18 season, Kentucky nearly lost to Vermont in its second game of the season and then lost on December 23rd to a UCLA team that ended the year just 21-11.

Last season, Kentucky was absolutely demolished by Duke in its first game (118-84). They also lost to Seton Hall on December 8th (84-83 OT); the Pirates finished 20-13. The Wildcats would go on to finish 30-7, earn a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and record dominant wins over UNC, Louisville, Kansas, and then-No. 1 Tennessee.

Obviously, the early-season losses from the last two seasons are a bit more explainable than Evansville, but they go to show that Calipari’s Kentucky teams can be vulnerable early on while still being viable title threats in March.

What’s The Best Bet?

At this point, if you liked Kentucky early on, nothing really changes. This is a team that’s still one of the best in the country and simply had an off night. The win over Michigan State in their opener showcases their high ceiling.

At this point, all we know is that Utah Valley is stepping into a buzzsaw next Monday and is very likely to get pounded, as are all of Kentucky’s next wave of cupcake opponents.

In terms of the big picture, though, nothing changes. If you liked Kentucky before, you can get them at a better price now.

I’m not going to write them off or change my opinion from one off night – especially when the team is comprised almost entirely of young, inexperienced players.