Gonzaga or Baylor? March Madness Odds Split on Who’s the Best

• Gonzaga is favored to win the NCAA Tournament by FanDuel, while DraftKings’ pick is Baylor
• Gonzaga (22-0) and Baylor (18-0) are the last two unbeaten teams in the country
• The latest national championship odds can be found below

Gonzaga and Baylor were considered the top two teams in the nation when the college basketball season began, and nothing has changed in ensuing three months to erase that notion.

They are the last two undefeated teams in the nation, Gonzaga with a 22-0 record and Baylor at 18-0. The Bulldogs are ranked #1 in both the Associated Press media and USA Today coaches polls, and the Bears are #2.

The teams are so close – as the NCAA Tournament odds indicate – that even the sportsbooks are split on the favorite to win the NCAA Tournament. FanDuel tabs Gonzaga and DraftKings picks Baylor.

2021 NCAA Tournament Champion Odds

Odds taken Feb. 24th from DraftKings and FanDuel

The Case for Gonzaga

Gonzaga has won 26 games in a row, dating to last season, and wrapped up yet another West Coast Conference regular-season championship. The Bulldogs have also won 49 straight games at home.

There were literally too many highlights from tonight to fit into one video. Go figure. We'll post more later 😏 pic.twitter.com/zOqZjjY24J

— Gonzaga Basketball (@ZagMBB) February 21, 2021

Both streaks are the longest in the country.

Furthermore, Gonzaga has won 19 consecutive games by double digits. The last team ranked No. 1 in the AP poll to have a streak that long was UNLV in 1990-91.

The record is 20 by UCLA in 1971-72. That seems certain to fall this week as the Bulldogs finish the regular season with home games against Santa Clara on Thursday and Loyola Marymount on Saturday.

Gonzaga also has two of the nation’s top players. Sophomore forward Drew Timme is ranked second by KenPom behind Iowa’s Luka Garza, and senior forward Corey Kispert is #10.

Drew Timme, man among boys. Block and dunk pic.twitter.com/6HRZOZcA94

— Karthik Venkataraman (@KarthikV_) February 14, 2021

Timme is averaging 19.1 points and 7.1 rebounds a game while shooting 64.9% from the floor and 40% from three-point range. Kispert has shooting percentages of 55.6 and 45.7 while averaging 19 points and committing just 28 turnovers in 663 minutes played this season.

In the KenPom metrics, Gonzaga is second nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency with 127 points per 100 possessions. Defensive, the Bulldogs’ 88.7 mark ranks fourth.

The Case for Baylor

Baylor now has the best start in program history. The Bears won their first 17 games in 2011-12.

Few teams have even challenged Baylor, which has won 15 of their 18 games by double digits. The Bears’ closest call came Tuesday night in a 77-72 victory over visiting Iowa State after they not played in three weeks. Baylor’s  average margin of victory is 23.1 points and it is shooting a remarkable 43.9% from 3-point range

𝙉𝙊𝘽𝙊𝘿𝙔 𝙨𝙝𝙤𝙤𝙩𝙨 𝙞𝙩 𝙗𝙚𝙩𝙩𝙚𝙧 𝙛𝙧𝙤𝙢 3⃣#SicEm 🐻 | #TimeIsNow 🏀 pic.twitter.com/yHnEvVz6QK

— Baylor Men’s Basketball (@BaylorMBB) February 22, 2021

The one drawback is, until Tuesday night, Baylor hadn’t played since Feb. 2 when it won at Texas, 83-69. The Bears then had six games postponed because of COVID-19 issues in the program.

The win over Iowa State started a difficult stretch to end the regular season that includes road games against Kansas and West Virginia then home games against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech.

Baylor also has a premier player in junior guard Jared Butler, ranked fourth in the nation by KenPom. Butler has averages of 17.1 points, 5.1 assists and 2.4 steals while making 45.3% of his 3-point tries.

Jared Butler's handles are a thing of beauty. pic.twitter.com/5tL3R47aaQ

— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) January 11, 2020

In the KenPom efficiency metrics, Baylor is fourth on offense at 123.1 and sixth in defense with 90.1 points per 100 possessions.

Which Team is the Best Championship Bet?

The numbers crunchers give a slight nod to Gonzaga over Baylor. Gonzaga is first in the NET rankings and Baylor is second.

The NCAA selection committee relies heavily on that metric to seed the tournament. Gonzaga’s NET ranking is fitting because the Bulldogs know all about cutting down the nets.

https://twitter.com/jacksononeil2/status/845883448229224448

KenPom, TeamRankings and USA Today’s Sagarin Ratings also have Gonzaga #1 and Baylor #2.

RPI, formerly the selection committee’s metric of choice, has Gonzaga second and Baylor fourth with Michigan between them at #3.

The #1 team is Navy, which is 13-2 but nowhere to be found in polls. Perhaps that is why the NCAA has moved on from RPI.

So, who has the better chance of winning the national championship? It is a razor-thin margin.

Gonzaga figures to be well-rested going into the NCAAs as it likely won’t be pushed in its two games in the WCC tourney. Conversely, Baylor has a rough schedule the next two weeks following by a tough road in the Big 12 tournament as six of the conference’s team are ranked within the top 18 of the AP poll.

Thus, the pick here is Gonzaga.