Colgate vs Baylor Odds, Spread, Picks & Predictions (March 22)

• The #3 Baylor Bears are two-touchdown favorites over the Colgate Raiders on Friday
• Colgate was 0-4 straight-up against top-100 teams this season and just 1-3 ATS
• See the Colgate vs Baylor odds, point spread, and predictions for the first-round game on March 22

As far as oddsmakers are concerned, the #3 Baylor Bears (22-10, 4-2 neutral, 19-11-2 ATS) got a cupcake matchup in the first round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament, facing the #14 Colgate Raiders (25-9, 2-1 neutral, 17-15-1 ATS).

The second game on the docket on Friday, March 22, tip-off is scheduled for 12:45 pm ET at FedExForum in Nashville, TN, and the Bears are listed as 14-point favorites in the Colgate vs Baylor point spread.

Colgate vs Baylor Odds

Baylor has a prohibitively short moneyline price of -1050, which translates to a 91.3% implied win probability. Colgate, meanwhile, is a +675 underdog to win straight-up (12.9% implied win probability).

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Odds as of March 21. Claim one of the top March madness betting promos before wagering on Colgate vs Baylor. 

Baylor is currently the third-favorite to win the West Region in the Final Four odds at +650., behind #2 Arizona (+200) and #1 North Carolina (+260). Colgate is at +25000, same as #15 Long Beach State.

Baylor Finishes Third in Stacked Big 12

During the first season with Houston, Cincinnati, BYU, and UCF in the Big 12, the Bears managed to go 11-7 in conference play, finishing third in the regular season (tied with Texas Tech) and getting a double-bye to the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament. But after beating Cincinnati (68-56) in the quarters, Baylor was routed 76-62 by eventual tournament-champion Iowa State in the semis.

Baylor went 8-9 straight-up against fellow NCAA Tournament teams this year, including non-conference wins over Auburn (88-82 neutral) and Florida (95-91 neutral) and losses to Duke (78-70 neutral) and Michigan State (88-64 away).

Freshman Ja’Kobe Walter (14.2 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.5 APG) led the team in scoring while senior Toledo transfer RayJ Dennis (13.3 PPG, 6.8 APG) was second and seventh in the entire country in assists per game. All in all, six Bears average in double-figures, though Langston Love (11.0 PPG) is questionable in the March Madness injury reports due to a knee injury.

Connecting at a phenomenal 39.4% clip from beyond the arc as a team, Baylor enters the NCAA Tournament with the sixth-best offense in terms of efficiency. Their defense (62nd) has been far more suspect.

With a much different cast (led by current NBAer Keyontae George), Baylor was also a #3 seed last season. The Bears crushed #14 UC Santa Barbara (75-56) before falling to #6 Creighton (85-76) in the round of 32.

Colgate (Mostly) Overmatched by NCAA Tournament Teams

The Raiders were undoubtedly the class of the Patriot League once again this season. They cruised to a 16-2 record in conference play, six games clear of the four teams that tied for second, winning their third straight regular-season crown.

By virtue of their top-seed, Colgate got to stay home for all its Patriot League Tournament games, and it made good use of that home-court advantage. The Raiders averaged a 13-point margin of victory while sweeping Holy Cross, Bucknell, and Lehigh.

Colgate was the only team in the Patriot League that rated better than 263rd at KenPom, which led to the Patriot League being rated 29th (out of 32) in KenPom’s strength-of-conference rankings. (The Big 12 was first for the third straight season.)

Head coach Matt Langel scheduled several tournament-caliber opponents in the non-con, but that didn’t turn out terribly well for Colgate. The Raiders went 0-4 against top-100 KenPom teams, losing to Syracuse (79-75 away), Yale (68-50 neutral), Arizona (82-55 away), and Illinois (74-57 away).

Colgate’s only win over another NCAA Tournament team was a 77-71 win at Vermont, which would go onto win the America East auto-bid.

Sophomore guard Braeden Smith (12.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 5.8 APG) leads the team in scoring and assists, while senior forward Keegan Records (10.9 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 1.2 BPG) is the leading rebounder and most-important interior defender.

COLG vs BAY Props

The college basketball player props for Colgate/Baylor come from DraftKings Sportsbook on March 21. 

The Colgate/Baylor player props see all six players on the board clustered between 10.5 and 13.5 points, which aligns with the balanced scoring stats on both sides.

Colgate vs Baylor Prediction

This is an unappealing line. Baylor is in another class from Colgate, but 14 is a big number against a good team that’s making its fourth straight NCAA Tournament appearance.

Whether Baylor covers will depend on how hot the Bears are from three, and that’s a slightly positive omen for the Raiders. Keeping in mind that they played a dismal Patriot League schedule, the Raiders finished 11th out of 362 DI teams in three-point defense, limiting opponents to just 29.9% from beyond the arc.

COLG vs BAY picks:

• Colgate +14 (-108)
• Under 138.5 (-110)