Warriors vs Heat Predictions, Picks & Player Props to Target (March 25)

• The Golden State Warriors are 4.5-point road favorites when they visit the Miami Heat on March 25
• It’s the first meeting between Jimmy Butler and Miami since he was dealt around the trade deadline
• See my Warriors vs Heat predictions, player props, and odds on March 24

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It’s the first matchup after the messy breakup, as Jimmy Butler and his new squad, the Golden State Warriors (41-30, 18-16 away) visit his former squad, the Miami Heat (30-41, 16-19 home). Only a weak East has Miami in the 10th and final play-in spot as they’ve struggled badly post-Butler, just ending a 10-game losing streak. It’s been all good in the Bay, though, as Golden State has vaulted into a top-six spot in the West, which would guarantee a playoff berth.

The Heat’s recent struggles rightly have them as the home dogs in Monday’s NBA odds when this one tips off from the Kaseya Center in Miami on Tuesday at 7:30pm ET, with TNT carrying the broadcast.

Warriors vs Heat Odds

The Warriors are 4.5-point road favorites, and a short -198 on the moneyline. Miami is a +166 underdog on the moneyline, and the total comes in at 217 points. The Warriors and Heat have gone Under the total in four straight head-to-head matchups.

Odds as of March 24 at FanDuel. Be sure to check out the best FanDuel promo code before placing a bet on any NBA game on Tuesday night.

This matchup will definitely lose some of its flair if Golden State superstar Steph Curry (pelvis) can’t go. He missed the Dubs’ 124-115 loss in Atlanta last time out. Curry is listed as questionable on Tuesday.

Miami’s got some sharpshooter worries as well. Duncan Robinson (back) is listed as questionable against the Warriors. Nikola Jovic (hand) won’t need surgery, but he doesn’t appear to be ready for game action anytime soon.

GSW vs MIA Player Props

NBA player props from DraftKings on March 24.

If Curry is a go, he’s tied for the highest scoring prop of 22.5 points with Miami’s Tyler Herro. Curry has been silent on the scoring front of late, going Under his scoring line in three of his last four. Herro, meanwhile, is coming off a 29-point effort in the win over Charlotte, the second time in three games he’s gone for 29 points.

"I think that you are going to see a Warriors team that definitely wants to make sure Jimmy Butler has a good game."@NotoriousOHM says the Warriors are ready to follow behind Jimmy in his return to Miami 💪 pic.twitter.com/tj03tnKxt5

— NBA on ESPN (@ESPNNBA) March 24, 2025

Butler is the center of attention here, and is listed at 20.5 points for Tuesday. He’s led the Warriors in scoring in three of the last four games, and has been the top assist man for the Dubs in six of the last seven, picking up at least seven assists in those games — making his dime prop of 6.5 very appealing.

Andrew Wiggins might be hitting the right hot streak as he faces his former team. The Canadian went for 42 against the Hornets, a game after dropping 30 on the Rockets, leading the team in scoring both nights. His total against the Warriors is 21.5 points.

Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat Picks

• Warriors vs Heat pick: Warriors -4.5 (-110)
• Heat vs Knicks prop bet: Butler Over 6.5 assists (-125)

It’s gone about as good as it can go for the Dubs since dealing for Butler, as they’ve won 16 of 20 games and climbed into a Top 6 seed in the West.

They have the third-best record in the league during that time, and it hasn’t all been offense, though they do sit 10th in scoring at 118.1 points per game.

The Warriors are just inside the Top 20 in field goal shooting, and outside the Top 10 in 3-point accuracy, but they are tied for the league lead in assists at 30.4 per contest.

At the same time, Golden State has found its defensive form in these 20 games, holding teams to 108.5 points. Only the Celtics and Magic have been stingier. Miami’s outlook hasn’t been as great since its breakup with Butler. The Heat just endured a 10-game losing slide, finally breaking it with a win over the Hornets last time out.

Getting buckets has been tough: over the last 11 games, the Heat are dead last in NBA scoring at 103.3 points per game, including a rough 34.4% clip from 3-point range, which ranks 26th in the league.

They’re also dead last on the glass, and are third-worst in offensive rebounding, at 8.4 per game during this slide.

Miami has won three of four against the Warriors, and will look for a two-game regular-season series sweep with a win Tuesday.

The Warriors have not been a great cover team of late, going 3-6-1 against the spread over the last 10. The Heat may be 1-9 straight up, but they have covered each of the last three contests, twice as an underdog.

I’m writing this on the assumption that Curry plays, and why I like the Dubs to take this one. Butler has morphed into a Pippen 2.0, doing everything that needs to be done, all while letting Curry shine with his daggers all over the court.

GState is also one of the best bounce back teams in the league, going 18-10-1 ATS after a loss. Compare that to Miami going 11-18-0 ATS after a win, and the signs are pointing to a good night for Butler and the Warriors.