NBA Play-In Tournament Picks & Predictions
By Chris Amberley in NBA Basketball
Published:
- The NBA Play-In Tournament tips off Tuesday night
- Atlanta ranks second in the NBA in pace and has seen 24 straight games exceed 217 points
- See my NBA Play-In Tournament picks and predictions below
The NBA postseason is here, with 20 teams vying for the Larry O’Brien Trophy. Five of those clubs have never hoisted the award, including the Magic who host the Hawks in the first of two matchups on Tuesday night. The Grizzlies and Warriors will square off in Tuesday’s night cap, while the Heat versus Bulls, and Mavericks vs Kings make up Wednesday’s schedule.
I’ve compiled a list of my favorite bets for each contest below, so keep reading for a game-by-game breakdown, and to see where you can find the best odds.
NBA Play-In Tournament Picks
Our first selection is the over in the Atlanta vs Orlando contest. The number currently sits at 217 per the NBA odds, which is nowhere near high enough given how the Hawks like to play.
NBA Play-In Tournament Pick #1: ATL vs ORL Over 217
You have to go all the way back to February 24th to find the last Hawks game that fell under 217 points. According to the NBA public betting trends, Atlanta’s contests were 50-31-1 to the over this season, which was the second highest over percentage in the league.
Only the Grizzlies play faster than the Hawks, and I’m not scared off by Orlando’s combination of lock down defense and shaky offense. Atlanta ranked sixth in the NBA in offensive rating post All-Star Break, and fifth in scoring. They’re second in assists, third in points in the paint, and only three teams get to the line more frequently.
Trae Young is a proven playoff performer, averaging 26.4 points and 9 assists per night. The Hawks are also horrendous defensively, ranking bottom-10 in most categories which raises the floor of the Magic offense.
Orlando 27th in offensive rating, and second last in three-point efficiency. Against competent defenders they might struggle, but Atlanta is the exact opposite.
At the other end of the floor, the Magic are the number one scoring defense in the league, but I don’t think they’ll be able to avoid getting into a track meet with the Hawks. Atlanta knows they can’t win without playing fast, so expect them to ramp up the pace increasing the amount of possessions for both sides.
NBA Play-In Tournament Prediction #2: Golden State Warriors -7
For my second pick, I’m going to lean on the championship pedigree of the Warriors against the Grizzlies. Since they’ve added Jimmy Butler to mix, they’ve been one of the top teams in the league, and resemble a legit NBA Championship odds contender. The Dubs are 20-7 since the All-Star break, ranking seventh in offensive rating and first in defensive rating.
Draymond Green is the Defensive Player of the Year favorite, and Steph Curry still has a sky-high offensive ceiling, posting a 52-point effort the last time he faced Memphis.
As for the Grizzlies, I’m not willing to back a team who fired their head coach with nine games left on the schedule. They went 3-6 under their new interim boss, and haven’t had enough time to properly adjust to his new offensive system.
NBA Play-In Tournament Pick #3: Chicago Bulls -1
Next up, I’m taking the Bulls -1 over the Heat. This game is a major contrast in styles, as Chicago wants to run and gun, while Miami wants to slow the game down to a snails pace. These two teams met three times during the regular season, with the Bulls sweeping the series.
The best way to attack Chicago is at the rim, but the Heat’s best inside threat Bam Adebayo has looked like a shell of himself this season. Adebayo shot a career-low 48% from the field, scoring just 18 points a night, his lowest total since 2020.
The Bulls on the other hand, launch threes at will, something Miami has struggled to defend. The Heat rank below league average in opponent effective field goal percentage and enemy three-point makes.
The Heat rank 19th in offensive rating since the All-Star Break, and are not going to be able to keep up with Chicago’s break-neck pace.
NBA Play-In Tournament Prediction #4: Dallas Mavericks +5
No Luka, no Kyrie, no problem right? Hardly, but I do believe the Mavericks can bully their way to a cover versus Sacramento. The Kings have traded away nearly all their primary pieces from last year’s playoff team, replacing them with aging veterans. They live and die by long jumpers, and if there’s one thing Dallas does well defensively, it’s defend the perimeter.
Offensively, Anthony Davis and Dereck Lively are going to need to dominate the interior. The Mavs outscored their opponents by 13 points when the duo was on the floor together, and the extra defensive attention they get down low should free up some open looks for Klay Thompson. The former Splash Bro has underwhelmed in his lone season in Dallas, but has always been a lethal playoff shooter. Thompson is a career 41% three-point shooter in the postseason, averaging over 19 points per playoff game.
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
