Pacers vs Cavaliers Game 5 Picks, Predictions, Best Odds & Player Props
By Sascha Paruk in NBA Basketball
Published:
- The Cleveland Cavaliers face a must-win at home in Game 5 against the Indiana Pacers
- Donovan Mitchell is questionable due to an ankle injury suffered on Sunday
- See the Game 5 Pacers vs Cavaliers picks, predictions, best odds, and player props on May 12
The Cleveland Cavaliers (69-21, 36-9 home, 52-37-1 ATS) find themselves in the unenviable situation of needing to win three straight games against the Indiana Pacers (57-34, 23-21 away, 42-46-3 ATS) to keep their season alive, and have to do so while their MVP Donovan Mitchell is battling a not-insignificant ankle injury.
Despite Mitchell’s questionable status for Game 5, Tuesday’s NBA odds heavily favor the Cavaliers extending the series to (at least) six games. Cleveland ranges from a 7.5 to 8.0-point favorite and is -295 (or shorter) on the moneyline.
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Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers Game 5 Prediction & Picks
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Mitchell re-injured his right ankle on Sunday night, an in was on the floor for shootaround on Tuesday morning and it’s almost certain that he’ll play in Tuesday’s must-win Game 5 but it’s unclear how healthy/effective he will be. If he’s less than 100%, it’s a big problem for Cleveland. Mitchell scored 35% of Cleveland’s points from Games 1 and 3, hitting at least 33 in all three.
From October to the end of March, Donovan Mitchell missed seven games due to injury and the Cavs went a perfect 7-0 straight-up in those contests. (He also rested the final four games of the regular season and the Cavs went just 2-2, but Cleveland was playing a glorified G-League roster for much of that span so it has little bearing on tonight’s matchup.)
But before you go getting too bullish on Cleveland’s performances without Mitchell, it’s important to note that they were just 3-4 ATS in those seven relevant games. Only two came against playoff teams (Detroit and Memphis) and none were against top-five teams in either conference.The other five came against Brooklyn, Charlotte, Portland (twice), and Toronto, who were a combined 111-217 this season (.338 win percentage).
The Pacers absolutely throttled Cleveland in Game 4, taking a ludicrous 80-39 lead into halftime before cruising to a 129-109 victory while resting their starters for much of the second half. They should smell blood in the water and I love the value on the Pacer moneyline at +260 (27.78% implied win probability) and will have ample confidence after a pair of victories in Cleveland in Games 1 and 2 (plus another road win over the Cavs in the regular season).
But I’m also going to fade Tyrese Haliburton’s point total of 16.5. The Indiana point guard has scored just nine points in the past two games while shooting 5-of-16 from the field and dishing out just ten total assists. Haliburton knows his primary role is as a distributor. Averaging just 4.7 APG in the last three, I expect him to be more focused on getting his teammates involved than finding his own shot on Tuesday night.
CLE vs IND Game 4 Player Props
NBA player props from bet365 on May 13.
Donovan Mitchell (28.9 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 4.3 APG postseason) has the highest player prop again by a wide margin, but not quite so wide as it was in the other games of the series. Battling through an ankle issue, Mitchell’s total has dropped from 31.5 ahead of Game 4 to just 27.5 ahead of Game 5 on Tuesday. He had just 12 points in 20 minutes in Game 4 before exiting due to injury.
Pascal Siakam (18.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 2.9 APG postseason) leads the Pacers players with a point total of just 17.5. He had by far his best game of the series on Sunday, scoring a team-high 21 points on an electric 9-of-10 performance from the field in just 21 minutes.
Cleveland’s frontcourt duo of Jarrett Allen (14.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG postseason) and Evan Mobley (16.1 PPG, 7.7 RPG postseason) both have rebound totals of 10.5
Pacers vs Cavaliers Game 5 Odds & Betting Lines
The Game 5 Pacers/Cavaliers spread ranges from Cleveland -7.5 to -8.0. The best Cavs spread is -7.5 (-110) at DraftKings while the best Pacers spread is +8.0 (-110) at either Caesars or bet365.
On the moneyline, FanDuel has the best price for Cleveland bettors at -295. The Cavs are -300 or shorter at all other sportsbooks currently. The longest odds on an Indiana win are +260 at any of bet365, BetMGM, Caesars, or ESPN Bet.
The game total range is also a full point. Over bettors can get the number as low as 229.5 (-115) at ESPN Bet. Under bettors can get the total as high as 230.5 (-110) at BetMGM.
The Pacers are now -340 to win the series after opening as +360 underdogs. The Cavs have faded to +275. They were -460 to advance in the NBA playoff bracket ahead of Game 1.
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Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
