OKC Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Odds, Predictions, Player Props & Injuries for Game 3 (May 11)
- The Dallas Mavericks are home favorites over the OCK Thunder in Saturday’s Game 3
- Luka Doncic is questionable to suit up due to his knee injury
- Read below for Thunder vs. Mavs Game 3 prediction, odds and player props
The Oklahoma City Thunder visit the Dallas Mavericks on Saturday afternoon for Game 3 in their Western Conference semifinal series. Tipoff from American Airlines Center is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
The series is tied 1-1 after the Mavericks bounced back with a 119-110 victory in Game 2, despite star Luka Doncic being hampered by a right knee sprain and left ankle soreness.
Dallas opened as a 3.5-point home favorite with a -150 moneyline, but the line has since dipped to Mavs -2.5, likely due to uncertainty around Doncic’s status. The Thunder are catching +120 moneyline odds as the underdog. The game total is hovering around 219 points.
OCK Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Odds – Game 3
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thunder | +2.5 (-110) | +120 | Over 217.5 (-115) |
| Mavericks | -2.5 (-110) | -145 | Under 217.5 (-105) |
Dallas is the -145 home favorite in the Saturday NBA odds, giving them 71% implied win probability. As the +120 road underdogs, the Thunder have 45.5% implied win probability.
Odds as of May 10, 2024, at BetMGM Sportsbook. Claim the BetMGM promo code to bet on OKC vs Dallas NBA Playoffs.
Thunder’s Winning Streak Snapped
The Thunder had their 10-game winning streak, dating back to the regular season, snapped in the Game 2 loss. They were a perfect 5-0 in the postseason, sweeping the Pelicans in the first round before taking Game 1 against Dallas 117-95.
In Game 2, the teams split the turnover battle with 10 apiece. OKC shot a better percentage from the field (47.2% to 46.7%), but Dallas had the edge in 3-point shooting (48.6% to 33.3%) and rebounding (44 to 41).
The Mavericks struggled offensively in the series opener, scoring just 95 points. But the stars showed up in Game 2 as Luka Doncic and P.J. Washington each poured in 29 points. Doncic added 10 rebounds and 7 assists, while Kyrie Irving dished out 11 assists to go with his 9 points. The 119-point outburst helped the game fly over the betting total of 217.5 points.
Doncic’s Injury Status Looms Large
The biggest storyline heading into Saturday’s crucial Game 3 is the health of Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic. The 24-year-old is officially listed as questionable due to a lingering right knee sprain and left ankle soreness.
Doncic initially suffered the knee injury in Game 1, then tweaked his ankle in a collision with Thunder rookie Cason Wallace during Thursday’s Game 2 victory. Despite the ailments, the three-time All-Star gutted out an impressive performance with 29 points, 10 rebounds and 7 assists in 37 minutes.
Luka Doncic shared earlier about his knee injury:
“It’s part of my DNA to play through pain. I’d have to be unable to walk to miss one of these games.” #OneForDallas pic.twitter.com/o694bsx5ap
— Abby Jones (@_abigaiiiil) May 10, 2024
The Mavs have officially listed Doncic as questionable for Game 3, meaning his status likely won’t be determined until closer to the 3:30 p.m. ET tipoff. During the regular season, Dallas went just 4-8 without Doncic in the lineup, including a 49-point loss to the Thunder on April 14.
Irving is chipping in 23.5 points and a team-high 1.9 steals per night. The duo will need to be in top form, especially if Doncic is limited by the injuries.
SGA Sparking Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to lead the way for the Thunder. SGA had 33 points, 12 rebounds and 8 assists in the Game 2 loss. For the postseason, he’s averaging a team-high 28.5 points, 6.2 assists and 1.3 steals.
Rookie Chet Holmgren is making his presence felt down low, contributing 15.2 points, 8.0 rebounds and 2.7 blocks per game in the playoffs. However, he’s gone under 8.5 rebounds in four of six postseason contests, including just 7 and 6 boards in the two games against Dallas.
OCK-DAL Player Props
Speaking of NBA player props, there is a wide selection of them available for Saturday’s Game 3. Doncic has the highest point total at 30.5, but SGA is right behind him with a point projection of 29.5.
| Player | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Three-Pointers Made |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Wiggins | 7.5 (Ov +105 | Un -125) | 3.5 (Ov +130 | Un -155) | OFF | 0.5 (Ov -166 | Un +140) |
| Chet Holmgren | 15.5 (Ov +100 | Un -120) | 8.5 (Ov +105 | Un -125) | OFF | 1.5 (Ov -108 | Un -112) |
| Daniel Gafford | 11.5 (Ov -112 | Un -108) | 7.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110) | OFF | OFF |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 8.5 (Ov -135 | Un +114) | 3.5 (Ov -162 | Un +136) | OFF | 0.5 (Ov -230 | Un +190) |
| Jalen Williams | 19.5 (Ov -118 | Un -102) | 4.5 (Ov -142 | Un +120) | 4.5 (Ov -125 | Un +105) | 1.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115) |
| Josh Giddey | 6.5 (Ov -102 | Un -118) | 3.5 (Ov -142 | Un +120) | 2.5 (Ov +136 | Un -162) | 0.5 (Ov -130 | Un +110) |
| Kyrie Irving | 22.5 (Ov -108 | Un -112) | 4.5 (Ov -115 | Un -105) | 5.5 (Ov +114 | Un -135) | 2.5 (Ov -155 | Un +130) |
| Luguentz Dort | 9.5 (Ov -108 | Un -112) | 4.5 (Ov +114 | Un -135) | OFF | 1.5 (Ov -135 | Un +114) |
| Luka Doncic | 30.5 (Ov -108 | Un -112) | 9.5 (Ov -115 | Un -105) | 9.5 (Ov -135 | Un +114) | 3.5 (Ov -102 | Un -118) |
| P.J. Washington | 13.5 (Ov -115 | Un -105) | 6.5 (Ov +110 | Un -130) | OFF | 2.5 (Ov +114 | Un -135) |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 29.5 (Ov +100 | Un -120) | 6.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115) | 6.5 (Ov +120 | Un -142) | 1.5 (Ov +140 | Un -166) |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 8.5 (Ov +105 | Un -125) | 2.5 (Ov +130 | Un -155) | OFF | 1.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110) |
Odds as of May. 10, 2024, at DraftKings Sportsbook.
In terms of Game 3 props, SGA’s points over/under is set at 29.5 at +100 odds. He’s gone over that mark in only two of six playoff games, including in Game 2 against the Mavs.
For the Mavs, Doncic’s 3-point prop of 3.5 is interesting, barring he suits up. While Doncic netted five from deep in Game 5, he was just just 8-49 on threes in his previous five postseason games. The Under of -118 is a strong lean for us.
Thunder vs Mavericks Game 3 Prediction
I’m backing the Thunder +2.5 in Game 3. The fact that this NBA betting line has moved around 9 points from Game 2 to 3 feels like an overreaction and a good buy-low spot for OKC.
The Thunder were the West’s top seed for a reason. They have an elite defense that travels. During the regular season, OKC ranked fourth in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.5 points per 100 possessions.
Doncic’s injury also looms large, as Dallas was just 4-8 without him this season, including a 49-point loss to the Thunder. P.J. Washington likely won’t go off for 29 again either after averaging just 12.9 points per game in the regular season.
I do think both offenses will have success though, so I lean towards the Over 217.5 points. In a crucial swing game, I expect both teams to top 105 points with their top-10 offenses and fast pace. Hammer the Thunder +3 and sprinkle the Over as this series continues to entertain.
OCK-DAL Game 3 Picks:
- Thunder +2.5 (-110)
- Over 217.5 (-115)
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Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
