Nuggets vs Thunder Odds, Player Props & Picks on March 10
By Chris Amberley in NBA Basketball
Published:
- The Oklahoma City Thunder are 9-point favorites over the Denver Nuggets tonight
- OKC blew out Denver 127-103 on Sunday
- See the Nuggets vs Thunder odds, player props and picks on March 10, below
Sunday’s potential Western Conference Final between the Denver Nuggets (41-23, 19-14 away) and Oklahoma City Thunder (53-11, 29-4 home) turned into a rout. The latest NBA odds project a similar outcome in Monday’s rematch. The conference foes will meet at 8:10 pm ET at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City with NBA TV providing the coverage.
Nuggets vs Thunder Odds
The Thunder are currently favored by nine points while the total is sitting at 238. Per the NBA public betting trends, the spread is up half a point in OKC’s favor, while the total has dipped two points. Oklahoma City is listed as a -375 moneyline favorite, with the Nuggets coming back as +295 underdogs.
Sunday’s 127-103 victory by the Thunder was punctuated by another brilliant Shai Gilgeous-Alexander game. The NBA MVP odds favorite put up 40 points, 8 rebounds and 5 assists, further separating himself from Nikola Jokic in the player of the year race. SGA was far from perfect from long range, but enormous volume has me betting he’ll exceed his three-point player prop tonight.
DEN vs OKC Player Props
NBA props from DraftKings Sportsbook on March 10.
- DEN vs OKC Player Prop Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 2.5 Threes (+145)
The over/under on his threes prop is 2.5, with +145 odds to the over. That’s a plus-money bet I want to target. SGA took 11 threes on Sunday, but made just two. Even after yesterday, he’s shooting 43% from three this month, and has increased his attempts in three consecutive months.
Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 7.5 threes per game in March, and the matchup with Denver is favorable. The Nuggets are yielding threes at a 36% clip. That’s the 11th highest mark in the NBA.
Nuggets vs Thunder Pick
At the other end of the floor, the matchup is far from favorable for the Nuggets. The Thunder’s defense is the best in the league, and the number one reason why my best bet is under 238.
OKC is tied for the league lead in scoring defense. They surrender the lowest field goal percentage, and are number one at defending the three point line.
To make matters worse for the Nuggets, the Thunder’s twin towers Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren are the ideal recipe to try and limit Jokic. OKC can now throw two 7-footers at the big man at any point. That negates any prior rebounding advantage Denver may have had.
The Thunder won the rebounding battle by eight yesterday, and the lower probability of second chance opportunities drastically limits the Nuggets offensive ceiling.
Also working against Denver is their injury luck. Aaron Gordon left Sunday’s loss after only six minutes of action with a calf injury. He’s doubtful to play tonight, which puts the Nuggets down a top-five rebounder and scorer.
Two of the three meetings between these two teams failed to hit 238 points this year. That’s despite Denver and OKC ranking third and fourth respectively in scoring. The Thunder’s stifling defense and two-big approach held the Nuggets in check yesterday, and I expect a similar outcome today.
The market is already investing heavily in the under for this matchup and you should too before all the value dries up.
- Nuggets vs Thunder Pick: Under 238 (-110)
BETMGM SPORTSBOOKUSE CODE SBD1500 & GET $1,500 BACK IN BONUS BETS
BET365 SPORTSBOOKBET $5 & GET $150 IN BONUS BETS WITH CODE DIME365
FANATICS SPORTSBOOKBET & GET UP TO $1,000 IN BONUS BETS!
DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOKBET $5 & GET $200 IN BONUS BETS INSTANTLY!
FANDUEL SPORTSBOOKBET $5 & GET $250 IF YOUR BET WINS
CAESARS SPORTSBOOKUSE CODE SBD2DYW & BET $1 TO DOUBLE THE WINNINGS ON YOUR FIRST 10 BETS!
Must be 21+. GAMBLING PROBLEM? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, IL, KS, KY, MD, MI, NC, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, WY); (800) 327-5050 or gamblinghelplinema.org (MA); (877) 8-HOPENY (NY); 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ); (888) 789-7777 (CT); 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA); 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN); mdgamblinghelp.org (MD); morethanagame.nc.gov (NC); 1800gambler.net (WV)
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
