Mavericks vs Kings Predictions, Picks & Best Available Odds (April 16)

• The Dallas Mavericks visit the Sacramento Kings in the 9-vs-10 West Play-In game
• Kyrie Irving is out for Dallas but Anthony Davis is listed as probable
• See the Mavericks vs Kings picks, predictions, and best available odds for Wednesday, April 16

In an absolute disaster of a season, the Dallas Mavericks (39-43, 17-25 away, 38-42-2 ATS) have one last chance to salvage a modicum of respectability on Wednesday night when they visit the Sacramento Kings (40-42, 20-21 home, 34-44-4 ATS) in the 9-vs-10 game in the Western Conference Play-In Tournament at 7:10 pm ET at the Golden 1 Center.

The winner will travel to Memphis to face the Grizzlies on Friday for the #8 seed in the West, which in all likelihood will come with a swift exit to the NBA-best OKC Thunder in the first round. With Kyrie Irving out for the season on the Dallas side, Sacramento is a heavy favorite to keep its season alive on Wednesday night. Wednesday’s NBA odds favor the Kings by 4.5 to 5.5 points against the spread and around -200 on the moneyline. The game total is sitting at just 214.5, down a full ten points from where it opened on Sunday night.

DAL Mavericks vs SAC Kings Picks & Prediction

• Kings 1H moneyline + full-time moneyline (-110) at FanDuel

The Mavericks come into the postseason losers of five of their last seven, including three straight on the road. Much maligned for the Luka Doncic-for-Anthony Davis trade, Dallas was still five games above .500 on Feb. 21 (31-26) but they went just 8-17 the rest of the way, dropping into the precarious 10th position in the West, which will require them to win two straight road games to make the playoffs.

I won’t just be stunned if the Mavs grab, the #8 seed; I’ll also be shocked if their season doesn’t end tonight. The Mavs were 0-3 against Sacramento in the regular season and though Davis () didn’t play in any of those three losses, Kyrie Irving played in the two most-recent: a 129-128 OT home loss on February 10th, and a 122-98 rout at home on March 3rd.

DAL vs SAC Regular-Season Results

If they can’t handle this Sacramento group at home, it doesn’t bode well for their chances on the road: Dallas finished the regular season an ugly 17-25 straight-up away from home. They appeared to be building a little momentum with back-to-back road wins at Orlando (101-92) and Chicago (120-119) on March 27th and 29th but Mavs have been woefully uncompetitive in their three road games since: 114-91 at LAC, 135-104 at LAC, and 132-97 at MEM on the final day of the regular season.

You might be thinking “they probably didn’t play anyone on the final day of the regular season”. Not true. They dressed/played more of their starters and regular rotation players than Memphis and were actually two-point road favorites in a game they wound up losing by 35 points.

A theme among Dallas’ recent road losing streak is bad starts. They trailed Memphis by 10 after Q1 on Sunday (13 at halftime), the Clippers by 13 after Q1 (and 23 at halftime) on April 4, and the Clippers again by 12 after Q1 (and nine at halftime) on April 5, a game that Davis suited up for.

I have zero confidence in the Mavericks tonight even with AD in the lineup.

Mavericks vs Kings Odds: Best Available

There is still a surprising range in the Mavericks vs Kings odds just seven hours from tip-off. The Dallas vs Sacramento point spread is as high as Mavs +5.5 at ESPN Bet and as low as Kings -4.5 at DraftKings.

DK also has by far the best moneyline price on the Kings at -192. Sacramento is -205 or shorter at all other sportsbooks. The longest moneyline price on Dallas is +185 at Caesars.

The biggest discrepancy is on the game total. DraftKings is the best option for over bettors at 213.0 (-110 odds both ways) while BetMGM is 1.5 points higher at 214.5 (O -105/U -115), making it the best option for under bettors.

The NBA public betting splits for Wednesday are hammering the Kings. Sacramento is getting 70% of moneyline handle on 76% of ML tickets. The Kings are also getting 69% of ATS handle on 64% of the ATS wagers.

The public now has a strong lean to the over, putting 85% of O/U handle on the over along with 84% of game-total tickets.