Magic vs Celtics Predictions & Player Props to Bet (Game 1)
By Chris Amberley in NBA Basketball
Published:
- The Celtics are 14-point home favorites over the Magic in Game 1 of their 1st round playoff series
- Boston is the only Eastern Conference team ranked inside the top-four in Offensive and Defensive Rating
- See my Magic vs Celtics Game 1 predictions and player props to bet, below
In terms of seeding, the most lopsided Eastern Conference matchup in the NBA playoff bracket should be Miami vs Cleveland. However, postseason seeding doesn’t tell the whole story. There’s no bigger favorite on the board in the series props than the Celtics versus the Magic, and that’s reflected in the series opener.
Boston is a massive favorite for Game 1 on Sunday, as their title defense begins. Tip-off is scheduled for 3:40pm ET inside the TD Garden in Boston, MA, with ABC providing the broadcast coverage.
Magic vs Celtics Prediction
- Under 206 (-112) at FanDuel
This series could turn into a rock fight real fast. These two teams rank second and fourth respectively in Defensive Rating, while the Magic are a bottom-four offense.
Playoff basketball tends to be lower scoring, and I predict this game will follow suit. Orlando averaged just 100 points during last year’s postseason, and ran a more efficient offense with Jalen Suggs at the point. Suggs is out for the season, and with all due respect to Cory Joseph, he’s a major downgrade.
The Magic’s offensive numbers are truly abysmal. Orlando is 28th in points, 29th in effective field goal percentage, and 30th in made threes and assists. They start slow and finish slower, with their only redeemable quality being their ability to get to the line. Good luck getting calls in Game 1, on the road, against a top-two NBA Championship odds contender.
Orlando is only here thanks to its defense, a unit that has been spectacular all season. The Magic are the league’s number one scoring defense, and no team allows fewer threes. They’re also number one in opponent assists-to-turnover ratio, while leading the league in blocks.
Magic vs Celtics 2024-25 Stats
They’ll have their hands full in their own end though, as the Celtics are number two in offensive rating. They’re an Eastern Conference best 22-5 since the All-Star Break, ranking only behind OKC in Net Rating. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis all average 20+ points per game, and no team is better from behind the arc.
The Celtics take and make the most threes per contest. They’re allergic to the rim, ranking last in points in the paint, and free throw attempts. Tatum and Brown can get to the hoop if they choose, and might be forced to do so if their triples don’t fall.
If there’s one knock on Boston, it’s being complacent. This team can go through serious droughts, and has a tendency to play down to its opponent. Case in point, Orlando actually took the season series 2-1. They’re going to try and lull the Celtics to sleep by slowing the game down to a snail’s pace.
Boston is already the second slowest team in the league, next to Orlando. With how strong both defenses are, it’s easy to envision long possessions that don’t result in quality looks. Give me the under in Game 1.
Magic vs Celtics Odds
The best place to bet the under is at FanDuel, who are offering a 206 point total. Boston is currently favored by 14 points and -1000 on the moneyline, with Orlando coming back as +650 underdogs.
Per the NBA public betting trends, the Magic were the second most profitable under team to bet this season (57.8%), while the Celtics were third (54.9%).
Odds as of April 19 at DraftKings and FanDuel. See the DraftKings promo code details before signing up.
Magic vs Celtics Player Props
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Magic vs Celtics Prop Bets: Jrue Holiday Under 9.5 Points (-125 at DraftKings)
If we expect this game to fall under an already low 206 point total, plenty of players are going to come up short in the player props market. I’m betting at least one of those will be Jrue Holiday, who just doesn’t see the volume he used to.
Holiday averaged only 9.2 shots per game this season, his lowest mark since he was a rookie in 2009-2010. Over half of those were from three, and we already discussed how well Orlando defends the perimeter. Holiday is an afterthought in an offense featuring Tatum, Brown and Porzingis.
Also working in our favor is the blowout factor. Boston is favored by two touchdowns, and Holiday will be one of the first to be pulled if the game gets out of hand.
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
