James Harden Now 2nd in Updated 2021 NBA MVP Odds at +700

• James Harden has thrown himself into the MVP race with Joel Embiid and LeBron James injured
• Nikola Jokic remains the odds-on favorite, but Harden has risen above the rest of the contenders 
• Is Harden good value to win a second MVP? See analysis on the latest odds below

James Harden has become a serious factor in the NBA MVP race with Kevin Durant absent. The Brooklyn Nets keep winning games on the back of Harden’s immense production. The former Rocket has asserted himself as a legitimate MVP candidate with Joel Embiid and LeBron James sliding out of contention due to injuries.

FanDuel’s NBA MVP odds tab Harden as second favorite. His +700 price is tied with Embiid, but still well behind odds-on leader Nikola Jokic.

2021 NBA MVP Odds

Odds taken on Mar 29th

The Beard on a Charge

As recently as February 16th, James Harden was +5600 to win MVP. His price has dropped consistently and aggressively since then, though he was still as long as +2650 on March 3rd.

Injuries to LeBron James and Joel Embiid left the door ajar, and Harden has taken his game to another level. Over the last couple of weeks, the Nets All-Star has moved in from +1400 to +700.

This odds change is obviously down to sustained excellence from Harden. His numbers are awesome. It’s also a result of a wide-open MVP race, a race which not so long ago looked like a three-man battle between James, Embiid and Nikola Jokic.

Injuries to two of those three left a vacancy in the MVP conversation, and it’s an opportunity Harden has taken.

No KD. No Kyrie.

25 PTS
7 REB
17 AST

Road dub in Portland.

Give James Harden the MVP pic.twitter.com/WdvMFiUg7t

— Nets Videos (@SNYNets) March 24, 2021

There are factors aplenty in Harden’s way as he pushes for a second MVP trophy. His push here is well-deserved, however.

Harden’s Big Numbers

Russell Westbrook is the only player averaging more assists per game than Harden since the break. Brooklyn has won 17 of their last 19 Harden has played in. As ever, he’s doing all of this on a massive workload, and leads the league in minutes per game since All-Star.

James Harden, on whether or not he belongs in the MVP conversation: "I am the MVP."

— Malika Andrews (@malika_andrews) March 27, 2021

After a drop in free throw numbers early in his Brooklyn stint, the nine-time All-Star is top of the pile in free throws attempted per game again.

The combination of big numbers and team success has made Harden an MVP candidate. He has spoken publicly (not for the first time) about his position in the MVP race. This is an award Harden feels he should have won more than once, but as good as he has been this season, he still faces an uphill battle to really challenge Jokic.

Numbers Likely to Drop?

James Harden has a usage rate of 31.3% in minutes without Kevin Durant. This drops to just 22.9% when Durant is on the court. Durant’s return from injury is obviously a key factor in Harden’s MVP case, and while he will still play minutes without the former Finals MVP, there’s no doubt his numbers are going to be less spectacular.

In Harden’s early days as a Net, there were triple-doubles alongside Durant, and he was influencing the game, but he was not the same scoring threat he has been of late. Harden has been more like his Houston self recently. He’s scoring over 27 points per game since the All-Star break. He was at 19 points per 36 minutes when Durant is on the floor.

Perhaps the boost for Harden, though, is that Durant’s return from injury is unclear. If Brooklyn is ultra-cautious with the former Warrior, Harden could get most of the rest of the season producing at this rate.

The signings of Blake Griffin and LaMarcus Aldridge have captured headlines, but neither are set to take away shots from Harden. If anything, adding Aldridge as another front court spacer and Griffin as a possible lob threat could aid Harden’s numbers as a scorer and playmaker.

Little Value on Harden

Harden’s MVP case is a complicated one. He’s going to have a very tough time winning voters over given the controversial manner he forced his way out of Houston. There’s also a fair point to be made about the time missed and giving up as a Rocket. If injuries limit the strength of Embiid and James as MVP candidates, the same argument can be made for Harden in the nine games before he got his desired trade.

The +700 price sounds long for a player producing like Harden is, particularly if the Nets take the top seed. Winning MVP is as much about building a narrative as much as production, though, and that isn’t remotely in Harden’s favor. There will be widespread reluctance to vote for him after his Houston departure. Whether that’s fair or not is a different discussion, but it’s a genuine factor for bettors to consider.

The prospect of Durant returning, and maybe of Joel Embiid coming back in the next week or so, makes it very difficult to see how Harden wins the award. Even out at +700, there’s better value on the board right now. This might be the shortest his price gets.