Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks Odds, Picks & Prediction (Game 3)

• The Bucks are 5-point home favorites over the Pacers in Game 3 of their first-round playoff series
• Milwaukee owns the second-worst defensive rating in the postseason at 121.8
• See the Pacers vs Bucks odds below, plus my picks and prediction for Game 3

Through two games, the Pacers vs Bucks series has been anything but competitive. Indiana has dominated both contests, boasting a 2-0 series lead in the NBA playoff bracket as the scene shifts to Milwaukee tonight.

Tip-off for Game 3 is scheduled for 8:10pm ET, inside the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, WI, with ESPNU and NBA TV providing the broadcast coverage.

Pacers vs Bucks Odds

Despite being down 0-2, the Bucks are 5-point favorites and -205 on the moneyline. The total sits at 230, with Indiana coming back as +170 underdogs. Per the NBA public betting trends, the Pacers covered both Games 1 and 2, with the over hitting last time out.

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Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks Picks

• Pacers Team Total Over 112.5 (-108) at DraftKings

Before the series started, we made the argument that this was a case of the best player versus the better team. So far, that’s exactly how things have played out.

Giannis Antetokounmpo has literally done everything he can to keep the Bucks competitive. He’s averaging 35 points, 15 rebounds and 4 assists per contest, shooting 65% from the field. Yet, when he’s on the floor Milwaukee is -29 in point differential.

Giannis is the only Buck shooting above 48%. Bobby Portis was a surprise bright spot in Game 2, but that’s after a dismal 4 point Game 1 effort. Brook Lopez, Kyle Kuzma and Gary Trent Jr. are all averaging less than 10 points, despite the ladder two logging top-five minutes.

Damian Lillard did make his emotional return in Game 2, but looked sluggish and understandably out of shape. He was ice cold from the field, and a non-factor on defense.

Speaking of defense, Milwaukee’s been a total disaster in their own end. They’ve coughed up 117 and 123 points so far, allowing Indiana to shoot 50% from the field, and 41% from three.

Pacers vs Bucks Advanced Stats (Playoffs)

The Bucks have the second worst defensive rating in the postseason, trailing only the Heat. They’ve let Tyrese Haliburton do whatever he wants with the basketball, leading to him averaging 16 points and 12 assists per outing. Haliburton isn’t the only Pacer having success, as his five of his teammates are also averaging double-digit points per game led by Pascal Siakam’s 25.

Online sportsbooks are giving us a break tonight, offering Indiana’s team total at 112.5. That’s a spot I’m looking to buy, and one Indiana has had no trouble clearing in the past.

Pacers vs Bucks Prediction

They’ve gone over 112.5 points in both playoff games, and in eight of their last nine overall. Milwaukee is having a ton of problems with the Bucks spacing, and Lillard can’t hang with Haliburton given his current shape.

Indiana was ninth in offensive rating for the season, and posted even more efficient scoring after the All-Star break. They were seventh in scoring, fourth in effective field goal percentage and third in assists. They’re deeper, quicker, and more efficient than the Bucks, and look like a legit longshot NBA Championship odds contender. They should have no problem clearing this team total even on the road.

I do think there’s value on Indiana at +5, but I think the better bet is targeting them to score 113+ points.