Heat vs Cavaliers Odds, Props & Picks (Wednesday, Mar. 5)
By Chris Amberley in NBA Basketball
Published:
- The Cleveland Cavaliers are 10.5-point favorites over the Miami Heat tonight
- Miami will be without four rotational players including Andrew Wiggins
- See the Heat vs Cavaliers odds, props, and picks for March 5, below
The Cleveland Cavaliers (50-10, 28-4 home) are not a train you want to stand in front of right now. That’s especially true if you’re shorthanded. That’s the dilemma facing the Miami Heat (29-31, 13-19 away) tonight, as they visit Cleveland with only nine healthy bodies. Online sportsbooks aren’t giving Miami much of a chance, pegging the Cavs as massive chalk in the NBA odds. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:10pm ET from the Rocket Arena, in Cleveland, OH, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.
Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers Odds
Cleveland is currently favored by 10.5-points in a contest with a total of 226.5. Per the NBA public betting trends, the Cavs are an NBA best 39-20-1 against the spread, covering by an average margin of 3.9 points. Cleveland is laying -500 on the moneyline, as they look to extend their 11-game winning streak.
Miami will be without starters Andrew Wiggins (ankle) and Kel’el Ware (knee), as well as backups Nikola Jovic (hand), and Jaime Jaquez Jr. (ankle). That’s going to put even more of the offensive burden on Bam Adebayo’s shoulders than usual, and lately he’s been up to the challenge.
MIA vs CLE Player Props
NBA props from DraftKings Sportsbook on March 5.
- MIA vs CLE Player Prop Pick: Bam Adebayo Over 19.5 Points (-120)
When targeting overs in the props market, I want to bank on volume rather than efficiency. In Adebayo’s case, there’s been no shortage of volume lately. Bam has averaged 16 field goal attempts per game since the start of February. He’s shooting north of 55% during that stretch, reaching 20+ points on seven occasions.
With the injuries piling up for Miami, they’ll have no choice but to feed Adebayo. Yes, the matchup inside versus Cleveland is challenging, but it’s one he’s conquered recently. In his last meeting versus the Cavs, Bam went for 21 points on just 13 attempts.
Heat vs Cavaliers Pick
I may be bullish on Adebayo from an offensive standpoint, but I’m even higher on Cleveland’s offense. The Cavs enter play with the league’s highest offensive rating over the last 11 games. They’re a top-three NBA odds contender, and the league’s second highest scoring team.
Cleveland has put up 122+ points in nine of their last 10 outings. They feature four players who average at least 16 points per night, led by Donovan Mitchell.
No team has seen a higher percentage of their games go over than Cleveland. 66.7% of the Cavs contests have cleared the total, thanks to a combination of prolific scoring and pace. The Cavs play at the league’s ninth fastest pace, averaging 103.4 possessions per game.
Not to be outdone, Miami is 33-27 (55%) to the over in 2024-25. They’re taking more threes than in years past, and the absence of quality defenders like Wiggins only raises Cleveland’s offensive ceiling. I expect a ton of points in this contest, and for this matchup to exceed the total for the third time this season
- Heat vs Cavaliers Pick: Over 226.5 (-110)
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
