Heat vs Bucks Game 5 Predictions, Picks & Same-Game Parlay (April 26)
By Chris Amberley in NBA Basketball
Published:
- The Heat vs Bucks odds have Milwaukee listed as 11-point favorites for Game 5 of their opening round playoff series
- Miami is on the verge of becoming just the fifth 8th seed to advance past the opening round since 1984
- Check out the Heat vs Bucks Game 5 predictions, odds, injury news and same-game parlay picks
The legend of Playoff Jimmy grew exponentially on Monday night. The Heat star delivered one of the greatest performances in postseason history, scoring 56 points and engineering a 14-point fourth quarter comeback to lead Miami to another upset win.
Now, the Heat have the Bucks on the brink of elimination ahead of Game 5, but online sportsbooks aren’t ready to quit Milwaukee yet. They opened up the Bucks as massive home favorites for Wednesday’s contest in the NBA odds, as Giannis Antetokounmpo and Co. look to take the first step in erasing a 3-1 series deficit.
Heat vs Bucks Game 5 Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Heat | +11 (-110) | +460 | O 219.5 (-110) |
| Milwaukee Bucks | -11 (-110) | -610 | U 219.5 (-110) |
The Bucks are currently favored by 11 points, in a contest that features a total of 219.5. Tip-off is scheduled for just after 9:30 pm ET at Fiserv Forum, in Milwaukee, WI, with NBA TV providing the broadcast coverage.
Odds as of April 25 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Miami vs Milwaukee Injury Report
Both Butler and Antetokounmpo were on the injury report heading into Game 4, but wound up playing. Butler was nursing a quad injury he suffered in Game 3, but you’d never know it by the masterclass he delivered.
Giannis meanwhile, returned to action after missing Games 2 and 3. The NBA MVP odds finalist was held out of those games due to a back injury, and while his back was clearly still bothering him, he gutted out a 26 point triple-double.
Reporting at @TheRally on Bucks going down 3-1 to Heat and Giannis Antetokounmpo's return, which sources say included IV fluids postgame: pic.twitter.com/Ui82hjlh4B
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) April 25, 2023
Antetokounmpo is listed as probable ahead of Wednesday’s matchup, while Butler is off the injury report. When Giannis was questionable ahead of Games 2, 3 and 4, Milwaukee opened as 5.5 point favorites, meaning oddsmakers expect him back at near full strength for Game 5.
Elsewhere on the injury report, Miami’s Bam Adebayo will play through his hamstring strain, while guards Tyler Herro (hand) and Victor Oladipo (knee) are lost for the series.
Heat vs Bucks Betting Splits
After what bettors saw from Butler in Game 4, it’s no surprise they are hammering Miami as 11 point underdogs. As of Tuesday night, the Heat are garnering 75% of the spread wagers and 80% of the ATS money.
Total wise, there is a big divide between the sharps and the squares. The public is hammering over 219.5 to the tune of 78% of the over/under tickets. However, those bets represent just 38% of all money wagered on the total. That means the sharps, who typically bet the biggest, are banking on a low scoring affair.
Heat vs Bucks Series Odds
| Team | Odds to Win Series |
|---|---|
| Miami Heat | -140 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | +115 |
As for the series market, oddsmakers are relatively bullish on a Milwaukee comeback. The Bucks are only +115 underdogs to erase their 3-1 deficit and advance in the NBA playoff bracket, a feat that has only been accomplished 13 times in league history.
Miami meanwhile, is looking to become only the fifth 8th seed to knock out a number one seed since 1984.
Heat vs Bucks Predictions
In Game 4, Butler was 19-of-28 (68%) from the field. The rest of Miami’s starters were 12-of-36 (33%). With Herro out, and Adebayo operating at less than 100%, Butler’s offense is all the Heat have.
"This may be the greatest playoff performance by any Heat player."
– Reggie Miller was in AWE of Jimmy Butler 🗣️
Agree or disagree with Reggie? 🤔pic.twitter.com/vIdFAqwcpp
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) April 25, 2023
Could he deliver another performance for the ages and end Milwaukee’s season? Sure, but there’s a higher likelihood that he regresses back to his season long form. Don’t forget, despite his heroics through three and a half quarters on Monday, the Heat were still down by double-digits.
Even if Butler puts on his Superman cape again, you have to think the Bucks will put be more effective on defense. Milwaukee boasted the fourth best defensive rating in the league during the regular season, and we should expect that version of the team to show up in Game 5.
Heat vs Bucks Game 5 Same-Game Parlay
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Heat Under 105.5 Points | -140 |
| Bam Adebayo Under 18.5 Points | -150 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo 1+ Blocks | -165 |
| Same-Game Parlay Odds | +295 |
We’ll target Miami under 105.5 points, at a price tag of -140, as the first leg of our Heat vs Bucks same-game parlay, and pair it with under 18.5 points for Adebayo.
The Heat center is just 10-of-26 from the field since suffering his hamstring injury, and has failed to clear 18 points in three straight games.
The final leg of our SGP will be 1+ blocks for Antetokounmpo. Giannis had two swats in Game 4, and with Milwaukee’s season on the line, we should expect him to be all over the court defensively.
Pick: Same-Game Parlay (+295)
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
