Game 1 Bucks vs Pacers Predictions, Odds & Prop Bets (Apr. 19)
By Chris Amberley in NBA Basketball
Published:
- The Pacers are 5.5-point home favorites over the Bucks in Game 1 of their first-round playoff series
- Giannis Antetokounmpo posted a .678 true shooting percentage versus Indiana this season
- See my Bucks vs Pacers Game 1 predictions below, plus odds and prop bets
On paper, the most competitive series in the East features the Milwaukee Bucks vs the Indiana Pacers in the 4-5 matchup. The Pacers, who have home court advantage, are the favorites to advance in the NBA playoff bracket, despite the Bucks dominating the regular season series.
Tip-off for Game 1 is scheduled for 1:10pm ET this afternoon, inside the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.
Bucks vs Pacers Prediction
- Over 224 (-112) at DraftKings
This series is a classic case of the best player versus the better team. Giannis Antetokounmpo has toyed with Indiana this season, and throughout his career, but doesn’t have a lot of help behind him.
The Pacers meanwhile, are incredibly deep, and feature seven players who average 10+ points. Indiana has a ton of length to bother Milwaukee’s complimentary offensive pieces, and can afford to let Giannis get his, if they clamp down on the rest of the Bucks.
The Pacers won’t have to worry about Damian Lillard in Game 1, as he remains out with a calf injury. Game 2 isn’t scheduled until Tuesday, and there’s a chance he could be back by then. Milwaukee was 3-1 versus Indiana in the regular season, but had Lillard at 100% for each matchup.
The Pacers closed the season on a 13-3 run, beating NBA Championship odds contenders Cleveland (twice), Denver and Minnesota (twice) along the way. They made it all the way to the East Final last season, beating Giannis and Co. along the way, and returned all the key pieces from that team.
Bucks vs Pacers 2024-25 Stats
Since the All-Star break, Indiana ranks ninth in pace, and second in possessions. They’ve been efficient on offense, scoring 125+ points six times in the last month. Eight of their last 11 contests have gone over the total, as did three of four meetings versus Milwaukee.
I’m predicting their pace and offensive efficiency will lead to another over today, along with Antetounmpo’s ability to score at will.
Giannis posted a .678 true shooting percentage versus Indiana this season, which was the highest of any East player versus their 1st Round playoff opponent.
Bucks vs Pacers Odds
The best price we can find on over 224, is -112 at DraftKings. The Pacers are favored by 5.5 points and -205 on the moneyline, with Milwaukee coming back as +170 underdogs.
Per the NBA public betting trends, the spread has moved 2 points in Indiana’s favor since opening odds were released, while the total is down 1.5 points.
Odds as of April 19 at DraftKings. See the DraftKings promo code details before signing up.
Bucks vs Pacers Player Props
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Pacers vs Bucks Prop Bets: Myles Turner Under 23.5 Points and Rebounds (-130 at DraftKings)
Switching over to the player props market, where I’m betting under 23.5 points and rebounds for Myles Turner. Indiana’s center has struggled badly versus Antetokounmpo this season, averaging 14 points per game, on just 46% shooting. As one of the Pacers tasked with slowing down Giannis, he’s at a higher risk for foul trouble, and his rebounding ceiling is lower given how many boards the Greek Freak will wrestle away.
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
