NBA Defensive Player of the Year Picks & Predictions – Green vs Mobley

• Draymond Green is now a -165 favorite to win the NBA Defensive Player of the Year, while Evan Mobley has dropped to +135
• Green has helped lead the Warriors to the second-best defensive rating since the All-Star Break
• Keep reading for the updated NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds, picks and predictions, below

If you ask Draymond Green, he’s been slighted multiple times in the NBA awards market. Specifically, in the Defensive Player of the Year category.

Green took home DPOY honors in 2017, but hasn’t won since despite being one the league’s top lock-down defenders year after year. That could change this season, however, as Green has stormed the odds board.

NBA Defensive Player of the Year Odds

Green is currently a -165 favorite in the NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds in what’s turned into a two-horse race. Evan Mobley is the second choice at +135, with none of the other four contenders listed shorter than +1400.

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Green Soars to DPOY Favorite

Green was priced at 80-1 in this market less than two months ago. At that point, Victor Wembanyama was the odds on favorite, but a season ending injury derailed his chances to claim the award.

Following Wemby’s injury, Mobley became the overwhelming chalk with -205 odds. Green moved to +4200 on March 5th, and his price has been getting shorter every day since.

The Warriors rise up the Western Conference standings has been a driving force behind Green’s price change. Golden State is 18-5 since February 8th, ranking second in defensive rating over that stretch.

The improved play coincides with the arrival of Jimmy Butler. The Warriors were 25th in defensive rating before Butler joined the team, so it’s fair to question if he deserves some of the credit that Green seems to be getting.

Butler’s tenacity has rubbed off on his teammates. A second quality defender has taken some of the pressure off Green, freeing him up lock down the opposing team’s top threat.

The versatility of Green has always been his calling card, as he can guard bigs and guards alike.

The challenge with betting into the DPOY market, is there aren’t a ton of stats to measure a players performance. Stats like defensive win shares and defensive rating play a role, but they don’t tell the whole story.

As a result, voters often cast a ballot by the eye test, and no one is more active in his own end than Green. If you want to take a more numbers based approach however, you may want to target the value you can now get on Mobley.

The Numbers Favor Mobley

By the numbers, betting Mobley makes a ton of sense. He has a higher defensive win shares than Green (3.4 vs 3.0), and a better defensive rating (108.3 vs  108.9).  Mobley ranks higher in defensive rebounding percentage and block percentage, with Green beating him in the steals department.

Evan Mobley vs Draymond Green Stats

Part of the reason the shine has worn off Mobley, is the Cavs recent play. Cleveland is 4-5 in their last nine games, allowing 122+ points in five of their last eight.

Their schedule doesn’t get any easier down the stretch, with four games in the next 12 days against the Knicks and Pacers, two potential second round playoff opponents.

That being said, if Cleveland locks down their own end, Mobley’s stock will soar. The Cavs are only two weeks removed from a 16-game winning streak, with a few of those victories coming versus NBA Championship odds contenders.

Green and Mobley should priced evenly in this market. If Golden State slips, Green’s odds will suffer. I’d bet Mobley now knowing you have multiple outs. He can elevate and steal the award away, or the Warriors can decline.

There’s also a chance voters catch on to the fact that Green is getting too much love for Golden State’s resurgence, swinging the odds back in Mobley’s favor.