Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat Odds, Picks & Player Props (Game 4)
By Sascha Paruk in NBA Basketball
Published:
- The Cleveland Cavaliers can sweep the Miami Heat in Game 4 on Monday night
- Cleveland obliterated Miami by 37 points on Saturday, winning all four quarters
- See the Cavaliers vs Heat odds, picks, and player props for April 28
Leading 3-0 in the best-of-seven first-round series, the #1 Cleveland Cavaliers (64-18, 30-11 away, 48-33-1 ATS) can sweep the #8 Miami Heat (37-45, 19-22 home, 40-43-1 ATS) on Monday night at the Kaseya Center at 7:40 pm ET. After embarrassing the Heat with a 37-point rout in Miami on Saturday night, the Cavs are heavy favorites to complete the sweep on Monday evening.
On the morning of gameday, Cleveland is an 8.5-point favorite in Monday’s NBA odds.
Cavaliers vs Heat Odds (Game 4)
In addition to being 8.5-point chalk against the spread, Cleveland is a -385 moneyline favorite in the Cavs/Heat odds for Game 4, a 79.38% implied win probability. Miami comes back as a +290 home underdog, a 25.64% implied win probability. The over/under has opened at 211.5 with the under slightly favored at -115. Odds as of April 28 at BetMGM. Check out SBD’s list of the top US betting sites for the 2025 NBA playoffs.
After the first two games of the series went over the total (211 points in Game 1 against a total of 216.0, and 233 points in Game 2 against a total of 213.0), Game 3 stayed under by a single point (212 total points against a total of 213.0). The O/U is now 4-2 in Cleveland/Miami games this year, including the regular season.
Cleveland’s NBA championship odds improved to +500 after taking a 3-0 lead on Saturday, which remains third behind the OKC Thunder (+150) and Boston Celtics (+190).
CLE vs MIA Injury Updates
Miami will once again be without Kevin Love (5.3 PPG, 4.1 RPG) due to personal reasons and Terry Rozier (10.6 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 2.6 APG) due to an ankle sprain. Love hasn’t played since March 21 while Rozier has been out since April 13.
The only injury on the Cleveland side is Darius Garland (20.6 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 6.7 APG), who is listed as questionable with a toe injury. Garland, who missed Game 3 as well, averaged 24.0 PPG, 2.5 RPG, and 7.0 APG in the first two games of the series in Cleveland.
CLE Cavaliers vs MIA Heat Player Props
NBA player props from DraftKings on April 28.
As he has each game this series, Donovan Mitchell (24.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 5.0 APG) has the highest point total on the board at 26.5. Mitchell had 30 points in each of Games 1 and 2 but just 13 in Game 3 on an ugly 4-of-14 performance from the field in 30 minutes.
Tyler Herro (23.9 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 5.5 APG) leads the Miami players with an O/U of 24.5 points. Herro had 21 points in Game 1, 33 in Game 2, and just 13 in Game 3, going 5-of-13 from the floor.
Game 4 Cavaliers vs Heat Picks
- Garland under 17.5 points (-120) at DraftKings
- Herro under 24.5 points (-105) at bet365
Miami has been a fickle mistress this postseason, for me at least. I faded the Heat in both of their Play-In Tournament victories and then steered clear of any spread/moneyline plays against the Cavaliers. I’m keeping up with that m.o. in Game 4 on Monday, but there are two player props I’m targeting.
The first is the less-than-100% Darius Garland to stay under his total of 17.5 points. Garland went well over this number in Game 1 (21 points) and Game 2 (27 points) but then sat out Game 3. It’s entirely possible that head coach Kenny Atkinson gives his point guard the night off again on Monday. But assuming he does play, don’t expect Garland to log heavy minutes in what amounts to a fairly meaningless game for Cleveland, at least as much as any playoff game can be meaningless. If Miami does manage to win a game at home tonight, the Cavs will be massive double-digit favorites to close it out at home in Game 5.
The second Miami/Cleveland player prop I’m betting is Tyler Herro to stay under 24.5 points. Herro averaged just under 24 points in the regular season and only went over 24.5 in one of the first three games against Cleveland. The Cavs finished the regular season with the eighth-best D-Rating in the NBA and the Heat are averaging just under 100.0 PPG in this series. The majority of the first three games have been played at a brutally slow pace (91.17), which would have been slower than all but two teams in last year’s postseason.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
